WOMEN IN MISSISSIPPI
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MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK 2010-2015
NATIONAL
TRENDS
MISSISSIPPI
TRENDS
EMPLOYMENT
INDUSTRIES
STATE BUDGET
National Economy in 2010
Recent profits, equipment spending strong
Private sector jobs being added
Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate
Exports growing
Stimulus spending slowing
Consumer, business spending tentative
Employment growth slow
Housing not yet on upswing
Toxic assets remain on financial books
Mississippi Economy in 2010
Housing, financial bubbles less severe
Job loss slowing, retail sales improving
Tax revenues stabilizing
Major projects boost spending
Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains
Uncertainties, unemployment impacting
consumers
Construction, manufacturing hit hard
Tax revenues low relative to state budget
Long-term challenges on hold
MS Employment:
Comparing Periods of Contraction
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak
-6
0
6
12
18
Feb 08 - Present
24
30
36
42
48
54
May 2000 - Dec 2007
60
66
72
78
84
90
Jun 80 - Sep 1985
Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level
5
Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index
Quarterly Data
Employment as % of 2007:Q1 Employment Level
102
Percent
100
MS
US
98
96
94
92 07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
Mississippi Employment Growth
As of July ,Year-to-Date Versus 2009
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
Year-To-Date 2009-2010
Constr
Manuf
Transport,Util
Leisure,Hosp
Business,Prof
Finance
Mining
Trade
Govt
Health,Social
TOTAL
-10.6
-4.1
-3
-3
-3
-2.4
-1.2
-0.2
0.7
3
-1.5
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
-2
0
2
4
Mississippi Employment Growth
July 2009 versus July 2010
MISSISSIPPI CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
July 2009 versus July 2010
Constr
Manuf
Leisure,Hosp
Finance
Transport,Util
Trade
Govt
Health,Social
Business,Prof
Mining
TOTAL
-10.1
-2.9
-1.5
-1.3
-0.9
0.6
0.8
1
2.8
7.3
-0.6
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
2
4
6
8
Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, STATE AND MSAs,
July 2009 & July 2010
(U.S. 9.5% - July)
Jul-09
Jul-10
11.5%
10.4%
10.0%
9.5%
9.3%
8.2%
Mississippi
Gulfprt-Biloxi
8.6%
Hattiesburg
9.2%
8.9%
8.2%
Jackson
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pascagoula
Gulf Coast Employment
July 2010 versus August 2005
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
94%
Construction
126%
Manufacturing
LeisureHosplty(G-B)
99%
74%
Transport & Utilities
92%
Retail Trade
113%
Government
60%
103%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Leisure/hsplty employment in G-B down 3.1% versus last July
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015
EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF 2000 EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, U.S. &
MISSISSIPPI
108
106
MS
US
104
Percent
102
100
98
96
94
92 1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
2014
Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S.
(Percent)
23%
MS
US
20%
17%
16%
13%
13%
11%
11%
10%
8%
4%
0%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4%
4%
Construction Employment, Coast and
Rest of Mississippi, 2005-10
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
IN STATE AND COASTAL MSA'S
August 2005 = 100
Total
Coast
190
Rest of State
170
150
130
110
90
70
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MS And US Housing Market
% Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S. Q2:07 to Q2:09
MS
US
-5%
-17%
-22%
-39%
-63%
Median Price
Sales
-63%
Housing Starts
Mississippi Housing Market
% Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1
SALES EXISTING HOMES, STATE AND U.S.
% Change 2009:Q1 - 2010:Q1
16%
MS
US
10%
-2%
9%
-1%
-27%
Median Price
Sales
Housing Starts
Value of Housing Building Permits
Mississippi, Aug. 2008 - July 2010
Value of Residential Building Permits
($ millions)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
08-09
Apr
09-10
May
Jun
Jul
Foreclosures and Past Due Payments
Mississippi Housing Market
18%
16%
Past Due
14%
In Foreclosure
12%
US
10%
8%
6%
US 4.6% MS 3.0%
foreclosure rate,Q2
4%
2%
0%
J-00
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
J-05
J-06
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
Major New Projects
Port at Gulfport
Schulz Extruded Products
Enterprise for Innovative
Geospatial Solutions
Twin Creeks Technologies
Toyota Auto Plant
LNG Project
Severstal Expansion
Keesler Air Force Project
Source: Mississippi Authority Development
$570 million
$300 million
$279 million
$175 million
$1.3 billion
$1.1 billion
$500 million
$950 million
Mississippi Retail Sales
August 2008 to July 2010
Retail Sales
$ millions
4,500
4,300
4,100
3,900
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
2,500
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
08-09
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Jan
Feb
09-10
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Transfers to General Fund
August 2008 to August 2010
General Fund Revenues
600
400
200
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
08-09
Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.
Apr
May
09-10
Jun
Jul
Aug
Growth in General Fund Transfers
FY2009 versus FY2010
Percent Change FY2009 to FY2010
Gaming Fees&Taxes
Indiv Income Tax
-10
-9.2
Sales Tax
-7.3
Corpor Income Tax
-4.6
Use Tax
1.1
Insur Premium Tax
1.4
-5.8
TOTAL G.F. Revenue
-12 -11 -10 -9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Growth in State General Fund Transfers
( August 2009 versus August 2010)
Gaming Fees&Taxes
-2.3
Indiv Income Tax
8.8
Sales Tax
0.3
Corpor Income Tax
147
Use Tax
-4
Insur Premium Tax -28.8
4.1
TOTAL G.F. Revenue
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Percentage Change
SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.
90
110 130 150 170
FY2011
GROSS STATE PRODUCT
$93.1 billion
MISSISSIPPI BUDGET
$19.1 billion
Federal Funds
State-Source Spec. Funds
$9.3 b.
$5.4 b.
State General Fund
$4.4 b.
Source: MS Dept of Finance & Admin.
Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010
(Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2009-10
MS
2.6%
2.6%
US
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.5%
-1.1%
Output
Employment
Personal Income
Inflation
Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011
(Percent Change)
Growth Rates, Mississippi and US, 2010-11
2.9%
3.1%
MS
US
2.2% 2.2%
1.3% 1.4%
0.7%
Output
0.9%
Employment
Personal Income
Inflation
Projected and Past Employment Growth
MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of Employment
2.5%
2.0%
MS
US
1.8%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
2004-2009
2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Projected and Past Output Growth
MS and US
Actual and Projected Annual % Growth of GSP and GDP
3.5%
3.0%
MS
US
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.8%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2004-2009
2010-2015
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.
Employment Forecast by Sector
(average annual rate of change)
MISSISSIPPI EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Average Annual Growth Rates 2010-2015
Business,Other Serv
Health & Social Asst
Construction
Transport & Utilities
Manufacturing
Trade
Leisure,Hospitality
Agric, Forest,Fish
Government
Finance, Real Est
Mining
TOTAL
-2.5
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-1.6
1.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.
1.5
2.5
3.5
WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN
OPPORTUNITY LOST?
Financial Sector: Transparency &
Accountability
Restructuring: Health, Energy
Social Safety Net
State Budget: Performance-Based
Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity,
Tax Reform
EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP
29% of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have
a bachelor’s degree or higher
Only 20% of persons from 25 to 64 years old in
Mississippi have a bachelor’s degree or higher
SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review,
U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.
Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required
SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census.
IN SUMMARY
Starting climb from bottom
Jobs, state revenues stabilizing
US, world growth will be a positive
Major projects on-line
Long-term challenges remain
Ability to innovate, compete
Education, research
State budget, health, energy, social issues
MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW
& OUTLOOK
and
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at
www.mississippi.edu/URC
Join MS Economy Listserve:
contact
[email protected]
University Research Center