Transcript Soda Ash Industry Global Overview 2014-15

Soda Ash Industry Global Overview
2014-15
Global Chemical Industry shift
from Developed economies to
Developing economies
Asia Pacific (including China) to
gain from this shift
Complexities in China to help
India becoming a manufacturing
hub.
Soda Ash : Global Demand – Supply (2014)
CIS (Russia & Ukraine)
Capacity
Production
Demand
Europe
North America
Capacity
Prod.
Demand
4.70
4.00
3.50
Capacity 12.00
Production 11.00
Demand
10.50
12.50
12.00
5.30
China
Capacity 32.00
Production 26.00
Demand
24.00
Middle East
Capacity
0.700
Production 0.500
Demand
1.700
South America
Capacity 0.200
Production 0.150
Demand
2.700
Africa
Capacity 1.16
Production 0.80
Demand
1.20
India
Capacity 3.00
Production 2.50
Demand
2.75
Australia
Capacity 0.35
Production 0.00
Demand
0.50
Indian Soda Ash Manufacturing - Facilities
END USE Consumption Pattern – Global Vs India
Growth Projection India – Soda Ash Consumers
Global Overview
China
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Total capacity touches 32 Million Tons which is 10 times of India's soda ash
production capacity.
Production around 25 Mil Mt . Cap Utilisation 77/78%
Despite excess glass capacity in China the capacity build up continues, a total of 245
flat glass lines operating in China, where there are only 7 in India.
With the slow down in Chinese Economy there is a marginal softening of prices.
• Remains the major threat for India .
US / North America ( Natural Soda Ash )
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Production reaches 11.5 Million MT . Domestic demand grows by only 1%
Exports grow by 5% mainly to Asia & South America .
The US producers ie. Tata/ Nirma have diverted some volumes to India in current
year
Natural SA has a huge cost advantage over the conventional process making the US
producers competitive globally.
Global – Overview
Europe
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Total capacity is 12 MMT produced in 25 plants in 15 countries including Turkey.
IHS forecasts that after a 0.4% decline in 2013, Euro-zone real GDP will increase
1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.
Cost pressures forced Soda Ash plants in UK/Portugal to closure.
European producers viz Ciech / Solvay increase export volumes to India as they
attract the lowest ADD.
Turkey with Natural Soda Ash reserves will be a threat to the rest of the
producing countries on account of their cost advantage & location
AFRICA, ASIA & MIDDLE EAST
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TCL has shutdown their Pure Soda Ash plant at Magadi (Capacity 3.5 Lac
MT/annum) due to unsustainable operational cost.
Penrice permanently closed its Soda Ash production facility in Australia.
Asia led by India is the only area showing growth signs .
India - Overview
INDIA
2013-14
INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS
• While Domestic
Demand
in 2013-14 has been
flat, growth of 5/6% expected
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in 2014-15 & + 5% growth predicted going forward.
Domestic consumption is approximately 3.1 Million MT ( 2.7 MMT market
demand + 0.4 MMt internal ).
With a production of only around 2.6 MMT, balance demand met by Imports.
China/ US / Europe / Kenya are the major exporters to India , major growth
in India is captured by Imports .
Flat Glass prices improve as Glass manufacturers get ADD protection on
ME / Saudi /Pakistan.
Ghari has announced a Soda Ash plant at Village Kuranga – Dwarka . (
Likely to take between 3 to 4 years )
Nirma & GHCL also examining expansion .
Anti Dumping Duties will be applicable till Mid 2017 hence we have to
work our over-all costs to remain competitive going forward .
END SECTOR MACRO INDICATOS & PLAYERS : Mix of Global, National and Regional Players : Fragmented
Market.
Thank You