Transcript Expo 2020 – Presentation

Khaled Reza - Mohammed Yaser - Ashfaq UrRahman
Contents
-
General introduction to the world of expositions
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Economic impacts of the expo to the UAE
-
Social impacts of the expo to the UAE
What is expo?
Khaled Reza
Introduction – expo
•
Simply put, expo means ‘large public exhibition’
•
Entered into force of the 1928 Convention Relating to International
Exhibitions, the ‘Bureau International des Expositions’
•
3 types – Universal, International and Specialized
•
Usual duration of an expo: 3 weeks - 6 months
On the road to Dubai 2020
Universal Exposition - Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life
Specialized Exposition – Future’s Energy
Universal Exposition - Connecting Minds, Creating the Future
Supporting the bid
“In today’s highly interconnected world, a
renewed vision of progress and development
based on shared purpose and commitment is
key. While a single human mind, an individual
country, or a specific community is both unique
and remarkable, it is by working collaboratively
that we truly advance.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum
Dubai
•
Business capital of the UAE
•
Population of almost 2,100,000 January 2013
•
Major transportation hub – Dubai Airports - DXB & DWC
•
Home to the Jebel Ali Free Zone – World’s largest of its kind
Dubai’s Achievements
•
Establishment of the city into a cosmopolitan ‘micro-world’
•
Home to the world’s highest tower, largest flower garden, biggest
mall etc…
•
Tourism and transportation facilities that are the envy of other
countries
•
Unparalleled leadership
In preparation
•
Building of the venue for the event – post modern, nature-filled & eco
friendly; built with a post-expo purpose
•
Creation of 300,000 jobs in the UAE
•
Overall, 80,000 jobs will be temporary and 30,000 will be volunteer
positions
•
Al Maktoum Airport to be fully functional as the World’s largest airport
•
Jebel Ali Free Zone used as a new micro city in Dubai
More connectivity
“Our unique geographic location connects us to a
third of the world through a four-hour flight and twothirds of the world through an 8 hour flight”
- Reem Al Hashimi, the managing director of the Expo 2020 Executive Body
Win, Victory and Love
Expo 2020
•
The costs for the event alone will be around US$2-3bn
•
Estimation: ‘secondary infrastructure’ cost will rise to US$8bn
including construction opportunities in the transport, hospitality,
retail and commercial sectors
•
Extension of metro lines and highways
•
New hotels, entertainment centres and golf clubs will be built to
keep both international and domestic visitors happy
The Theme
Dubai has a long history of facilitating
connections and pioneering new ideas and
Dubai Expo 2020 would be no different, with a
predicted 70 per cent of the expected 25
million visitors originating from outside the host
nation, making it the most international event in
the history of Expo.
The subthemes
The key drivers of global development:
Sustainability - lasting sources of energy and water
Mobility - smart systems of logistics and transportation
Opportunity - new paths to economic development
The focus will be on exploring their interdependencies and
identifying potential partnerships, ultimately resulting in a legacy of
innovation.
The purpose of Expo 2020
Connecting Minds, Creating the Future
•
Be an event to connect the world
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Bring up the reputation of the country
•
Maximize international relations
•
Add fuel to the economy
•
Help pioneer new partnerships for growth and sustainability for the
future
Event partners
Economic Impacts
Mohammed Yaser
“At CBD we are very optimistic about the
positive impetus for the UAE economy that
Dubai Expo 2020 will bring”
- Peter Baltussen, CEO of Commercial Bank of
Dubai (CBD)
A Legacy of Success
•
Expos have mostly proved pivotal in the infrastructural development of host nations and cities. The benefits for
most of the participating nations were compelling
•
According to a report by the marketing guru Tjaco Walvis, while the Dutch Pavilion at Expo 2000 cost €35m
(US$47m) it potentially generated some €350m (US$470m) for the Dutch economy, with 92 per cent of visitors
saying they were now more likely to either visit the Netherlands or look to do business there
•
The most recent World Expo in Shanghai in 2010 was of great significance to China. The Expo involved 192
countries and 50 international organizations and was the most expensive in the history of World’s Fairs. By its
end, a record 73 million people had visited. It cost 11.96bn Yuan (US$1.89bn) to run the event, but it made a
profit of more than 1bn Yuan (US$158m)
Expectations
•
A majority of UAE residents expect Expo 2020 to positively impact their
lives ahead of the event and after the event, according to a recent
survey of more than 1,000 residents by strategic research company,
Insight Discovery
•
A majority (95 per cent) of the respondents are interested in the Expo,
out of which 62 per cent expressed strong interest. Eighty-eight per
cent said it will impact their lives positively
•
Respondents in the survey were asked to identify the sectors which
would most likely be the beneficiaries of Dubai Expo 2020. Sectors
which received favorable mention included
advertising/media/communications, financial services, real estate,
retail, telecoms, and tourism/hospitality
Favorable Outlook
•
More than 60 per cent of respondents had a favorable outlook for tourism growth in the years
(2018-20) closer to Dubai Expo 2020, in comparison to the earlier period (2016-18) where tourism
were predicted to grow by 33 per cent to 40 per cent
•
73 per cent of the respondents believe that the UAE’s financial services sector will cope easily with
the opportunities but challenges may arise
•
57 per cent of those surveyed think that the impact of the event on local banks will only be
moderate, given that three quarters of the 25 million visitors to Dubai Expo 2020 will come from
outside the UAE
•
In terms of employment opportunities in the UAE, 57 per cent of the respondents think that the
EXPO 2020 will lead to a positive impact with more job creation and new businesses
•
91 per cent strongly believe that EXPO 2020 will lead to a rise in the general cost of living.
Interestingly, 16 per cent doubt whether the event will be delivering benefits after it is over
Early Speculations
(Michael Lahyani - CEO and Founder of regional real estate and property)
•
It has been projected that the UAE economy will see over AED 100 billion in
revenue.
•
Creation of more than 200,000 jobs between 2013 and 2021.
•
The win will also accelerate the implementation of megaprojects such as
Mohammed bin Rashid City.
•
Residential and business districts in and around Dubai World Central Airport.
•
The construction of infrastructure projects such as the Dubai Metro Purple Line.
Positive already…
Hamad Buamim, chief executive officer of Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
said that we started this year on a high note
“2013 is the best year we ever had during the past five years across the board. Major
highlight of 2013 and its impact on 2014 was Expo 2020 announcement. This is really a
turnaround event”
- Hamad Buamim, chief executive officer of Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Benefits – facts and figures
•
Dubai's Expo 2020 is expected to yield AED 89 billion ($24.2 billion) in added economic
activities, according to Reem Al Hashimi, the managing director of the Expo 2020
Executive Body
•
Expo 2020 will provide 277,000 new job opportunities and will have a positive and
comprehensive economic impact on small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
•
On an average, more than 11,000 job openings are posted online
•
Emirate expects to have 80,000 hotel rooms by 2020, suggesting that more than 15,000
new hotel rooms (more if older hotels are revamped) may be built before the event
begins
•
“For every US dollar spent by Dubai, its economy should reap a six-fold return“ Standard
Chartered Bank said in a note.
Benefits – facts and figures
•
The event would also raise the overall GDP of the country in a variety
of sectors
•
Real estate consultant Jones Lang La Salle states that more than
840,000 square meters of gross leasable retail space is expected to
come to the Dubai market by 2016
•
A little over 6,000 new hotel rooms are expected to come on the
Dubai market next year, taking the emirate's total hotel room stock to
just over 65,000
•
Dubai International Airport will have increased its capacity to 90
million passengers a year from the current 60 million
Confidence Enhanced
•
In a sign of confidence even before the Expo bid was secured,
Emirates Airline ordered 50 Airbus A380s at a list price of USD 20
billion at the recently concluded Dubai Air show, to take its total
order for A380s to 140. The airline also placed a USD 76 billion order
with Boeing Co. to buy 150 of the manufacturer's new 777X
aircraft, as the authorities pull all the levers to achieve the target of
20 million visitors by the end of the decade
•
Even before receiving confirmation of the rights to host the Expo,
the authorities had begun working on a budget for 2014 that was
11% higher than the previous fiscal year
THE EXPO EFFECT – Outlook
(The emerging market bank report)
•
The event is set to lift confidence in Dubai's housing sector by
supporting long-term demand dynamics
•
Most of the infrastructure and related housing facilities will be built
in the relatively less populated southern part of the city, which will
contribute to Dubai's expansion
•
Expo 2020 effect to be evident as early as next year with GDP
jumping 5.4% compared to its previous forecast of 4.5%
Multiplier effect
•
•
The new wave of investments will add to the USD 705 billion worth of projects
already under way in the emirate over the next 10 years
The emirate would also benefit from enhanced global media exposure
•
Raising Dubai's profile as an open, vibrant business hub in the heart of Middle
East would be invaluable promotional tool - the kind that could only be
attained by spending millions on advertising
•
When Qatar won the right to host the World Cup in December 2010, the
country's stock exchange jumped 9% within a week's time. The Expo may have
a similar effect on the Dubai Financial Market, except that the market has
already been soaring at record highs
Challenges
“... We caution against overstating the economic benefits of hosting the Expo. We
expect direct expenditure of $7 billion on the event to amount to around one per
cent of GDP per year between now and 2020”
-Citi Bank’s Middle East Macro Monthly report
Challenges
•
The effectiveness of the impact of this expenditure on the local economy was likely to be
limited and short-lived as the majority of contractors and workers preparing and managing the
event would be foreign
•
The government expenditure directed towards the Expo will need to be diverted, at least in
part, from other areas of spending to avoid an excessive build-up of debt
•
The visitor numbers will not be a net increase in tourism — much non-Expo related tourism is
likely to be squeezed out by the event
•
The ripples will also be felt by the cement sector which has seen its utilization fall dramatically
after the real estate crash of 2008, as construction projects were halted or mothballed
•
The International Monetary Fund recently warned the emirate to keep a close eye on its
soaring property market
Challenges
•
Qatar has recently been under fire for its management of its foreign labor workforce as it prepares
to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and has been called out for its poor labor rights record
•
Fears of a massive jump in rents and real estate prices. Dubai's real estate prices have already risen
21.8% this year - second only to Jakarta, according to Knight Frank
•
The IMF estimates that about USD 64 billion of debt owed by Dubai's Government-Related
Enterprises (GREs) and government will be due between 2014 and 2016
•
The scale of the planned expansion also creates a significant risk that there will not be enough
demand to support the new hotels, offices and retail space once the expo is finished
•
Du and Etisalat would see their mobile subscriptions growing multiple times
Strategy
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The Dubai authorities will do well to ensure that all the necessary
frameworks and regulations are in place to ensure that the event is
only remembered for positive developments, and foreign labor is
offered adequate working conditions
•
The government would finance the expo through a mix of bond
issuance, bank borrowings and cash raised from asset disposals
and profits from Dubai Inc. businesses
•
This huge borrowing would mobilize loan growth of the banking
sector and lead to strong fee generation over investment banking
deals. UAE banks have the capacity to lend additional [AED 300
billion] given their current and forecasted lending ratios
Social Impacts
Ashfaq UrRahman
•
Interconnected world-Interconnected challenges,
through the forging of new partnerships and alliances
we will be able to achieve social progress on a global
scale
•
Dubai Expo 2020’s theme of ‘Connecting Minds,
Creating the Future’ recognizes that the key
innovations and partnerships to build a better world
can be found within the fabric of our interconnected
lives (UAE- unity)
People’s support
•
Over 95 per cent of investment professionals in the UAE supported
Dubai’s bid for Expo 2020
•
Statistics Clearly show how the campaign has been massively
successful on social media
•
Region’s youth confident Expo 2020 will boost image of Arab world
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Almost everyone who lived in the UAE wanted it to happen
Past experiences
•
Expo 2010 - transformed Shanghai into a global commercial district
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A staggering figure of over 73 million visitors is a clear indication of
the global exposure Shanghai was able to achieve
Dubai
•
Expo 2020 will be a powerful catalyst in Dubai’s social and cultural
growth
•
Improved lifestyles- world-class infrastructure and cutting-edge
technology
•
Dubai Expo 2020 would serve as a platform for idea creation across
nations, institutions and corporations, inspiring a generation with
lasting social change
•
One key area of growth - education sector, smart learning (it’s crucial
to foster and develop new talent)
Expo 2020 bid to impact residents and
Emirati culture – Survey
•
Conducted by research firm YouGov (1,000 residents) people are
optimistic about the positive effects expo 2020 will have on the
region
•
Participants were asked whether Dubai’s win would make it more
or less likely for them to consider leaving the emirate (77% less likely
to move, 67% would even encourage family and friends to move
to the UAE)
Impact on residents
•
The multiplier effect-more jobs means more people, more families
living, earning and spending their money in the UAE
•
Dubai has multinational workforce, the effects will be felt as far as
India, Pakistan, Philippines, with increased remittance streams
offering many families opportunities of a better life
•
Higher cost of living for the expatriate community (hike in rent
rates)
Labor demands
•
Casual and part-time labor is not possible
•
Hotels will most likely face the problem of being overstaffed when
the event is over and will see an unbalanced supply-demand ratio
•
Dubai’s construction and real estate sectors are facing a
combined manpower shortfall of up to 500,000 at the moment
•
Hiring more staff without understanding demand and being able
to match labor to demand can impact quality and customer
satisfaction
Impact on local culture
“If the cart is politics and the horse is the economy then we have to
put the horse before the cart and not the other way around.”
– Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum
Elements of Emirati identity that are most under threat are “social
values, culture and traditions” - Dr. Ameenah Al Daheri, Associate
Professor of mass media, UAEU
Expo and national day
Dubai Expo would take place before the UAE marks its 50th anniversary in 2021,
offering a unique opportunity to connect Expo to the national celebrations
Expo Live
•
Expo Live would challenge the world to identify 21 critical global
issues across the three Dubai Expo sub-themes:
1.
Sustainability-lasting sources of energy and water
2.
mobility – smart systems of logistics and transportation
3.
opportunity – new paths to economic development
•
Individuals and organizations across the globe would then work
hand-in-hand to deliver solutions before, during and after Expo
2020
•
The resulting ideas and innovations would be showcased during
Expo as the outcome of a global interaction – testimony to the
message that together we can accomplish more
To conclude
"Dubai Expo 2020 will breathe new life into the
ancient role of the Middle East as a melting pot
for cultures and creativity"
-Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum via twitter
Food for thought
What will happen to the other day-to-day
expenses of a normal resident? Will they be able
to afford the same lifestyle when it gets nearer to
the Expo 2020?
Heartfelt wishes for Dubai
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
References
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http://www.frontier.fi/dubai-expo-2020-to-create-around-300000new-jobs-in-uae/
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expo_(exhibition)
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expo_2020
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http://expo2020dubai.ae/en/
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jebel_Ali_Free_Zone
•
https://www.zawya.com/story/Dubai_Expo_2020_Catalyst_for_furt
her_UAE_growth-ZAWYA20131203062215/
•
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnhnOsnpGFw