Transcript Regional impact of demographic change ADAPT2Dc Transnational

Impact of demographic change
Mary REDEI, D.Sc.
HU Regional Informatics Ltd.
ADAPT2DC Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014
Demography left the descriptive style
1. Foresight: the future of the past based on
2.
3.
4.
5.
relationship, explanation, how the structure limits the
flow?
Border of demography extended like: economical
activity, graduation, ethnicity, religious, household..
If the process of demography is in harmony, not much
attention follows, pro-action…
But now, decreasing, ageing, no natural reproduction,
rising mobility.
Why are these problems? How can we benefit?
Main pop trends
1. No natural reproduction. Half of 35y girls have no
child! Under replacement level, life expectancies
slowly rising, but still…
2. Demographic
behaviour
rapidly
changing,
vulnerability of life.
3. Cohort size varied from 220 to 85 thousands/y, (old)
dependency ratio is growing, young 0,23 old 0,39
(0,85!) these are challenges for institutional
utilisation, propagative number limits the
expectation.
4. See the evolution of age tree.
2010
Férfiak
Nők
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
4
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
f
ő
1952
e
z
e
r
1950
Population development of Hungary
140
120
100
80
60
40
tényleges
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
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Replacement movement
1. 300 immigrants + 200 staying permit holders, 600 working
+50 studying
abroad +illegal, seasonal and circular
migrants. 12% of working age.
2. Without immigration the population decrease would have
been more rapid. 200 had got Hungarian citizenship and live
here. Two-thirds of them live near the capital.
3. The small territorial level’s centrums are 4 times attractive
compared to their periphery. Better educated, younger
people. External HR resources – new task their reengineering.
4. Mr Max Fischer: ‚we called workers and human arrived.’
Migration extended from worker to family.
5. Free movement is not equal to free access to social services
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International flow of Hungary
150
100
50
e
z
e
r
f
ő
0
nemzetközi vándorlási egyenleg
-50
-100
-150
évek
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Ageing
1. Raising awareness of inhabitants, common and
individual responsibility.
2. Living longer in health, living away, growing
generation age-distance→1990. Around age of 20y to
give birth to first child, nowadays it is over 30y.
3. Micro spatial distribution: living alone 32%, from this
old household 53%.
4. Macro spatial distribution: access to oversized
infrastructure, citizen right versa Constitution, how
the service companies should be ready to do so?
Profit or gratis? Who will compensate?
Number of settlements by population
categories
Categories
2020
2027
2034
2041
1128
1159
1192
1242
1300
500-999
645
654
661
653
626
1000-1499
362
359
348
338
340
1500-1999
272
251
253
242
229
2000-2999
281
278
252
242
236
3000-4999
192
183
183
180
173
5000-9999
132
126
127
122
115
10000-15000
52
55
48
50
54
15000-19999
30
33
32
27
24
20000-29999
24
21
25
26
26
30000-49999
17
16
14
13
14
50000-99999
10
11
11
11
9
9
8
8
8
8
3154
3154
3154
3154
3154
0-499
100000Total
2013
9
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Spatial distribution
• Rural: farmers aging, how to cultivate the land?
Revitalization of life on economical basis or social ones? PC
illiteracy and E-governance?
• City: low mobility level, specially old people, high
maintenance cost, more and different institutional
placement expected on XXI century level.
• Suburban area: early ´90 started without city governance,
orientation. Particular way –local bargain, eg.35 y→60y, no
physical -mental interest and effort to enjoy the green. No
big family, real estate supply!
• Border area: isolation →CBC, real estate boom, two ways
flow, interactive contact zone, specially to Croatia, Ukraine,
Slovakia.
Double global effects
1. from 2008 Schengen free flow area, and
economical-financial crisis,
2. The western demographic behaviours
spread versus the eastern structure. Fertility,
causes of deaths.
3. Silver economy +elderly immigration to
Hungary. Former Romanian emigrants gained
Austrian citizenship and return to ethnic life.
Population by age structure
source: Budget Act
0–14
years
Hungary
total pop.
15-64
Aged per
working
65-X
Years old population number in thousands
2013
9.906
1429
6229 2078
21%
3,0
2020
9.757
1421
6064 2025
21%
3,0
2030
9.579
1349
5762 2000
21%
2,9
2040
9.337
1227
5265 2191
23%
2,4
2050
9.113
1131
4768 2345
26%
2,0
2060
7.996
1009
4108 2879
36%
1,8
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Half of population lives in red lane
Three national borders 3X3 structure
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Productivity of individuals
in a closed economy and in a market economy
1. Underinvest to accumulate intellectual
capital during socialism.
2. FDI was able to recruit eligible HR from
labour-market, but in 1993 opened job
fairs, direct from universities.
3. Recently, over 30y by proven experience
in CV, despite of having a residence and
job they moved to abroad for carrier, for
better life style, be cosmopolitan, take a
chance…
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Népesség százalékos változása településenként, 2041 (2011. október 1.
népesség=100%)
- 75.3
75.4 - 88.3
88.4 - 104.2
104.3 - 133.0
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133.1 -
Build environment
• Social and technical infrastructure ↔ citizen right/severely disabled
• Housing structure: expanded, but not appropriate to their age.
• Internal mobility: permanent flow from East to West, South to
Nord.
1950-60: activity modification from agriculture to industry,
concentrated to Budapest.
1960-75: housing and employment motivation, state construction.
1975-90: urban network extension, block of houses and private
construction on perspectives.
1992-2007: employment to urban + suburban, no state investment in
housing.
2008beyond the border.
• new partnership had formed in housing in western
border area. Eg.: car assembly company (e.g.: AUDI) + newly
internal mobile worker ( Mr XY) + property owner (landlord)
• Emigration creats depopulated settlements.
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Economical impact
1. IMF: social and regional disparities limit the sustainable
development.
2. Biological gain and loss. No social load in sending case.
3. Human development: graduation, skill, ability experience
4. Living longer → late start and life events shift
5. Immigrants pay more tax than their social claim,
6. Tax paying foreigners 7% in capital, 3% other counties, loss
from emigration,
7. remittances received (2,3 b$)1,8% GDP 42. ranked, sent
(1,1 b$) 0,9 % GDP 36. ranked.
8. Missing the tax payers therefore missing tax, the
production is not here!
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Some question and re-mark
• Separate the pro-action policy from the re-action
policy, for example early warning system.
• Increase and strengthen the capability to affiliate
based on mutually agreements,
• How can we expect solution from an inflexible
system?
• Who will compensate the difference and whether
on economical or on social basis action?
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Thanks for your attention and remarks
[email protected]
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