Transcript Economic Indicators for Analytical and Policy Use in National

Accounts, Indicators and Policy Use
with
2008 SNA Framework
National Seminar Developing a Programme for the
Implementation of the 2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in
Jamaica
Kingston, 30 January-1 February 2013
1
Outline of Presentation
• SNA as demand driven response
• Location of 2008 SNA for policy analysis
• Advantages of economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
• Analysis of scope of implementation of Supply and Use
Table (SUT)
• Analysis of scope of implementation of Integrated
Economic Accounts (IEA)
• Scope of macro-economic analysis by implementation of
Supply and Use Table (SUT) and Integrated Economic
Accounts (IEA)
• Selected economic performance indicators
• Satellite extensions of the 2008 SNA
2
SNA as demand driven response
• SNA is demand driven and a statistical response
of market economies to address macroeconomic
issues with macroeconomic theory
• The SNA provides a frame of reference for the
development of a capacity to analyze
macroeconomic challenges and to monitor
progress, e.g. growth and macroeconomic
stability
• Economic theory and SNA interact in the
development of concepts and definitions, accounts
and tables, classification, etc. to analyze the
economy in an integrated framework
3
SNA as demand driven response
• The Central Framework of the SNA embodies basic
distinctions as required by economic theory such as:
– production (aggregate supply) and aggregate demand
(use) with prices
- factors of production such as labor, capital,
technology
– transactions such as income, consumption,
investment, exports, imports, transfers, financial
assets and liabilities ..
– balance sheets with positions of assets and liabilities
– (institutional) sectors such as household sector,
corporate sector, monetary sector, government sector,
external sector
4
Location of System of National Accounts and
Intermediate Accounts for Policy Analysis
ECONOMIC
THEORY
SYSTEM OF
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
ECONOMIC
ISSUES
Concepts and
definitions
Policies and
perspectives
Indicators
Accounts
Basic data and statistics
5
Advantages of economic indicators approach
to macroeconomic analysis
• Simple and understandable economic constructs
that summarize the development of the economy and
the economic and financial vulnerabilities over time
• Economic indicators within a balanced system of
national accounts are mutually consistent
• Economic indicators use the real and financial
interconnectedness within sectors, between sectors
and their counterparties in the rest of the world
• Economic indicator analysis improve the use of
national accounts and its quality and reveal data
gaps
6
Integration of Industry Data in SUT
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
products
Mineral, manufacturing, electricity, gas,
water and construction products
Services products
TOTAL
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
Total
economy
Agriculture,
hunting,
forestry and
fishing
Mining,
manufacturing,
electricity, gas,
water,
construction
Services
industries
Imports
87
87
0
0
37
2,153
1,364
3,604
2
0
89
2,112
11
2,123
39
1,353
1,392
345
117
499
Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate
consumption consumption consumption consumption
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
products
Mineral, manufacturing, electricity, gas,
water and construction products
Services products
TOTAL
Compensation of employees
Taxes less subsidies on production and
imports
Consumption of fixed capital
Operating surplus / mixed income, net
TOTAL
Gross capital formation
Govern- HouseNPISH
ment
holds
Gross
Change Acquisitions
fixed
in inven- less disposals
capital
tories of valuables
formation
Exports
88
3
71
14
7
2
28
0
2
1
1,251
544
1,883
36
8
47
969
218
1,258
246
318
578
435
98
540
3
363
368
608
379
1,015
0
16
16
351
23
376
27
10
28
10
*)
Value added by components
Final consumption
expenditure
Value added Value added Value added Value added
762
9
407
346
58
222
679
1,721
-2
11
24
42
49
92
317
865
11
119
338
814
The data presentation in the present exercise is based on the
assumption of full allocation of FISIM to industries and sectors
using those services. If the allocation is to a nominal sector,
negative adjustments to GDP are needed in the cells indicated.
7
Refining SNA scope through classifications into the SUT
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
*
BEC
Imports
Output
Sectors
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
Exports
Intermediate
Consumption
Gross capital
formation
(=investments)
Intermediate consumption
HH final; consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Gender
Employment
ISIC Revision 4
A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing
B – Mining and quarrying
C - Manufacturing
D - Electricity, gas , steam and air conditioning supply
E – Water supply; sewerage, waste management, etc
F - Construction
G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles,
motorcycles
H – Transport and storage
I – Accommodation and food service activities
J – Information and communication
K - Financial and insurance activities, etc.
HH final
consumption
BEC (SNA Broad Economic Categories)
Value added
Gross capital formation
(=investments)
GOV
final
consumption
NPISH
final
consumption
Sectors
NFC
FC
GOV
HH
NPISH
CPC
0. Agriculture, forestry and fishery products
1. Ores and minerals; electricity, gas and water
2. Food products, beverages and tobacco; textiles, apparel and leather
products
3. Other transportable goods, except metal products, machinery and
equipment
4. Metal products, machinery and equipment
5. Constructions and construction services
6. Distributive trade services; accommodation, food and beverage serving
services; transport services; and electricity, gas and water distribution
services
7. Financial and related services; real estate services; and rental8 leasing
services
8. ….
Extending the SUT to Socio-Economic
Analysis
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
*
BEC
CPC
Imports
Output
Exports
Intermediate
Consumption
Classification by
Purpose (COICOP,
COFOC, social
protection categories)
HH Sub-sectors
Other
sectors:
NFC,FC,
GOV,
NPISH
Classification
by Purpose
(social
protection)
Social dimensions
(social indicators)
Gross capital
formation
(=investments)
HH Actual final
consumption &
capital formation
Final
consumption
Of which:
Outlays for social protection: education, health, nutrition, housing
Value added
Employment
ISCO/ ICSE
Gender
Nationals/
non-Nationals
Other sectors:
FC,
GOV, NPISH
Compensation of employees
Mixed income
Employment
Workers Remittances to ROW
9
services
EXTERNAL BALANCE OF GOODS
AND SERVICES
Production
output
Production
account
intermediate consumption
consumption of fixed capital
Production
3604
899
137
mixed income, net
operating surplus, net
1632
property income, receivable less payable
Use of income
account
final consumption expenditure
Adjustment for the change in net equity
of households in pension funds
SAVINGS, NET
CURRENT EXTERNAL BALANCE
gross capital formation
of which: additions to the value of nonproduced assets
less: consumption of fixed capital
acquisition less disposal of non-produced
Capital account assets, net
capital transfers, receivable less payable
NET LENDING
CHANGES IN NET WORTH DUE TO
SAVINGS AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS
252
30
1269
694
42
5
63
158
533
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
545
15
140
191
51
3
2
432
247
Distribution of
income
121
Distribution of
income
Distribution of
income
766
6
2
416
63
38
135
191
213
654
239
1632
Use of income
1399
0
1
0
9
0
0
0
39
24
13
11
391
212
654
269
Capital flows
414
22
-222
0
65
0
62
38
230
86
14
10
48
0
-41
Capital flows
1
4
-38
-38
39
0
1
2
2
16
Distribution of
income
6
432
60
Distribution of
income
167
141
10
29
46
39
49
22
Use of income
0
48
Capital flows
278
42
41
332
36
1164
Use of income
1015
0
-10
11
160
Capital flows
40
178
322
71
Capital flows
68
20
-137
0
-10
2
-30
0
-42
-7
0
2
4
16
33
-69
65
7
0
5
4
150
191
213
289
268
139
108
358
Use of income
368
-11
11
Capital flows
9
32
34
6
-50
-38
5
23
148
178
7
1
36
40
Use of income
16
0
24
766
Use of income
0
233
45
Distribution of
income
0
Distribution of
income
717
762
compensation of employees, receivable
less payable
Distribution of taxes less subsidies on production and
income accounts imports
current taxes on income
social transfers
other current transfers
DISPOSABLE INCOME, NET
29
10
440
Capital flows
19
0
-3
1
3
0
4
21
Integration of Sector Data in IEA,
Current and Capital Accounts
taxes less subsidies on production and
imports
102
Production
133
Income generation
compensation of employees, payable
Production
Production
1753
1883
222
Taxes less subsidies on products
VALUE ADDED/ DOMESTIC
PRODUCT, NET
Income
generation
account
23
-41
10
services
TOTAL
ECONOMY
U
External sector
R
U
R
External trade
540
Production
account
Income
generation
account
intermediate consumption
consumption of fixed capital
property income, receivable less payable
Use of income
account
final consumption expenditure
Adjustment for the change in net equity
of households in pension funds
SAVINGS, NET
CURRENT EXTERNAL BALANCE
gross capital formation
of which: additions to the value of nonproduced assets
less: consumption of fixed capital
acquisition less disposal of non-produced
Capital account assets, net
capital transfers, receivable less payable
NET LENDING
CHANGES IN NET WORTH DUE TO
SAVINGS AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS
Government
Households
U
U
U
U
R
R
R
-41
Production
Production
3604
1883
391
416
63
38
191
213
654
239
1632
Use of income
1399
0
1
0
9
0
0
0
39
212
654
269
22
-222
0
65
0
62
38
230
1
4
-38
-38
102
29
10
440
252
30
R
NPISH
U
R
NPI’s by
function:
Production
Production Education,,
Health, Rural
1269
9
694
Development,
3
42
Environment,
etc.
40
717
63
158
533
28
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
545
15
140
•Central government
3
•State government
•Local
government 45
121
Distribution
of
Distribution
of
•Social
security
funds
income
income
-Central government
social security funds
-State government
135
86
167
141
social security funds
-Local government
24
10
social
security
funds
13
14
29
39
51
11
10
48
0
-41
Capital flows
Capital flows
414
899
137
Use of income
0
233
Production
Production
1753
222
•Central bank
•Deposit-taking
corporations
Taxes less subsidies on products
133
VALUE ADDED/ DOMESTIC except central banks
PRODUCT, NET
1632
• Money market funds
(MMF)
Income
generation
• Non-MMF
investment
funds
•
Other
financial
intermediaries,
compensation of employees, payable
762
except insurance corporations and
taxes less subsidies on production and
pension funds
imports
191
mixed income, net
432
• Financial auxiliaries
operating surplus, net
• Captive financial 247
institutions
Distribution of
Distribution of
and money lenders
income
income
compensation of employees, receivable
• Insurance corporations
less payable
6
2
• Pension funds 766
Distribution of taxes less subsidies on production and
income accounts imports
current taxes on income
social transfers
other current transfers
DISPOSABLE INCOME, NET
Financial
corporations
499
EXTERNAL BALANCE OF GOODS
AND SERVICES
NFC/FC
ISIC -output
main economic activity
Non-financial
corporations
46
49
22
Use of income
0
48
Capital flows
278
2
0
2
432
•HH by regions
5
16
60
Distribution
vs. non-agric.
HH of
Distribution of•Agric.
Distribution
of
income •Urban vs.
income
rural HH income
•Level of education
of
766
Head of HH
7
42
32
41
•Age groups
of150Head of 6
HH
191
213
178 income per 0
•Disposable
1
1
289
268
322
332
capita/ HH
2
36
139
108
71
36
40
358
1164
•Status of employment
of
Use of income
Use of income
Use of income
Head
of
HH.
16
368
1015
-11
11
Capital flows
9
23
39
0
-10
Capital flows
40
0
24
11
160
Capital flows
68
Capital flows
19
20
-137
0
-10
2
-30
0
-42
0
-3
-7
0
2
4
1
16
33
-69
65
7
0
5
4
34
6
-50
-38
5
23
148
178
3
0
4
21
Refining SNA scope through
classifications: Sub-sectoring the IEA
NFC/FC
Integrated Economic
•Public
non-financial
Accounts
(IEA)
corporations
•National private non-financial
corporations
Exports of goods and services
controlled nonExternal •Foreign
account
Imports of goods and services
of goods and
financial corporations
11
Financial Instruments in a From-Whom-to-Whom Framework by Residency and Resident Sector of Creditor and Debtor
Creditors by residency and resident sector
Resident
Debtor by residency and resident sector and by financial Non-financial Financial
General
Households NonAll
instrument
corporations corporations government and npish
resident creditors
Non-financial
Residents corporations
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
Debt securities
Loans
Equity and investment fund
shares or units
Insurance, pension and
standardized guarantee
schemes
Financial derivatives and
employee stock options
Other accounts
receivable/payable
Financial
corporations
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
…
General
government
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
…
Households and
npish
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
…
Non residents
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
12
…
All debtors
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits
Scope of Macro-economic Analysis by Milestones and Minimum
Required Data Set (MRDS)
•
•
Milestone 1. GDP by Industry and Expenditure in current and constant –
Growth analysis
•
Milestone 2. GNI from Total Economy and Balance of Payments (current, capital and
financial accounts) and GFS transaction accounts
Growth analysis and BOP analysis
•
•
•
•
•
Milestone 3.
Production and generation of income accounts for institutional sectors
and general government (including IIP for BoP and GFS transactions and stock in
assets and liabilities)
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis and fiscal analysis
Milestone 4.
Production, generation, distribution, redistribution and use of income
accounts and capital accounts for all institutional sectors (upto net lending)
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal and income distribution
analysis
•
--------------- Minimum required macroeconomic data set, annual institutional sector accounts
upto net lending and quarterly GDP and quarterly BoP
•
Milestone 5.
Production, income and use accounts, capital accounts and financial
accounts for institutional sectors
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal, income distribution
analysis and investment- financing analysis
•
•
•
Milestone 6. All transaction and flows accounts plus balance sheets
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal income distribution
analysis, financing-debt analysis (Flow of funds) and vulnerability analysis (currency
13
mismatches, maturity mismatches (roll-over of debt), capital structure (equity vs debt),
solvency (assets over liabilities)
Point for discussion
• Does the present scope, detail and quality of
National Accounts for your country meet present
policy demands in an interconnected economic
and financial domestic and global economy?
14