Transcript Economic Indicators for Analytical and Policy Use in National

Accounts, Indicators and Policy Use
with the 2008 SNA Framework
Regional Seminar on Developing a
Programme for the Implementation of the
2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics
Kampala, Uganda
10-11 December 2013
United Nations Statistics Division
Outline of Presentation
 SNA as a link between theory and practice
 Location of 2008 SNA for policy analysis
 Economic indicators approach to macroeconomic
analysis
 Advantages of economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 Analysis of scope of implementation of Supply and
Use Table (SUT)
 Scope of Macro-economic Analysis by Milestones and
Minimum Required Data Set (MRDS)
2
SNA as a link between theory and practice
 SNA is central to the process whereby the
interplay of theoretical constructs and
practical issues together determines the
national accounting capability that a country
would like to have.
 Through the translation of these ambitions
into actual capability,
• it develops the ability to monitor performance,
• to provide policy analysis, and
• hence to advise and comment on contemporary
issues
3
SNA as demand driven response
 SNA is demand driven in the sense of being a
response to real issues.
 The SNA provides a frame of reference for the
development of a capacity to analyze
macroeconomic challenges and to monitor
progress
 Economic theory and SNA interact in the
development of concepts and definitions, accounts
and tables, classification, etc. to analyze the
economy in an integrated framework
4
SNA as demand driven response
 The eventual nature of this response is represented at the
bottom of the diagram and involves both measures of
actual economic performance and the advice that follows
from analysis.
 The role of the SNA is not, therefore, simply to define such
performance measures as GDP or the rates of saving and
investment.
 These are incidental to the main purpose, which is to
provide:
• a frame of reference for the development within each country of a
capacity to analyse economic problems and
• to monitor progress
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Locating the SNA
Economic theory
Concepts and definitions: social
accounting framework
Economic Issues
Policies and perspectives
Performance measures
Analytical/modeling capability
National accounting capability (SNA)
Minimum data requirements (the core)
Actual database
Information technology
Analysis and policy advice
performance measures
6
Location of System of National Accounts and
Intermediate Accounts for Policy Analysis
ECONOMIC
THEORY
SYSTEM OF
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
ECONOMIC
ISSUES
Concepts and
definitions
Policies and
perspectives
Indicators
Accounts
Basic data and statistics
7
Locating the SNA and Intermediate
Accounts for Policy Analysis
 The first step is to is to translate economic theory into a set of
concepts and definitions, which build into an overall
conceptual framework (social accounting framework –Hicks
1942)
 The core (Central Framework) of the SNA embodies basic
distinctions as required by economic theory such as:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Production (aggregate supply) and aggregate demand (use)
Production, income, saving and investment
Current versus capital
Transactions such as income, consumption, investment, exports,
imports, financial assets and liabilities ..
Balance sheets with positions of assets and liabilities
(institutional) sectors such as household sector, corporate sector,
monetary sector, government sector, external sector
Factors of production such as labor, capital, technology..
Prices
Domestic versus foreign
8
Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 A set of national accounts data is generally too large
and conceptually too complex for users to handle in
analysis.
 Users require that the data set be summarized into a
smaller set of indicators that could be used to assess
economic conditions and development of a country.
 Indicator analysis – generally indicator ratios are used.
 The reason for using ratios between data rather than
the data themselves is that data generally provide little
information, unless they are related to other data.
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Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
Example:
 GDP figure becomes only meaningful
•
•
if its growth over time is analysed, a per capita figure is
derived that makes it possible to compare the data
between countries, or a
percentage breakdown by expenditures or activities is
presented.
 Similarly, data about the level of imports are not very
informative unless
•
•
•
they are related to exports or
to domestic output, or
a breakdown by products is shown.
10
Indicators to assess economic conditions
and developments
 Indicator ratios are roughly grouped by types that
describe economic conditions and development of the
economy and/or policies aimed at influencing
developments
• First - describe the total economy and its relations with
the ROW
•
aggregates per capita and per worker, prices and BOP
• Second - describing production by industries and sectors
•
Production, behaviour and participation of corporations in the
economy
• Third - elements of fiscal policies and the impact of
those on other sectors
•
behaviour and participation of Government in the economy, 11
taxes
Defining Indicators within macroeconomic framework
 By linking the indicators to macro-economic framework, it
would be possible to identify not only the issues but also
the underlying variables that could measure the impact
of policies addressing the issues.
 As a macro accounts framework is generally used to
address policy issues within a country, the development
of indicators based thereon
•
•
would stimulate the use of those indicators by national
Governments in their assessment of national conditions and
developments,
in addition to the present use of indicators by international
agencies.
12
Advantages of economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 Simple and understandable economic constructs that
summarize the development of the economy and the
economic and financial vulnerabilities over time.
 Economic indicators within a balanced system of
national accounts are mutually consistent.
 Economic indicators use the real and financial
interconnectedness within sectors, between sectors
and their counterparties in the rest of the world.
 Economic indicator analysis improve the use of
national accounts and its quality and reveal data
gaps
13
Links between statistics, macro accounts,
indicators, projections and policies
[c]
Projections
of future
development
[b]
[h]
[a]
Policy
analysis and
formulations
Selection and
compilation of
indicators
measuring past
trends
[g]
Macro
accounts
design and
compilation
[e]
Statistics and
statistical
development
[f]
[d]
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Advantages of economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 Indicators and macro accounts play a central role in statistical
development and policy formulation.
 Policy formulation could be based on the use of indicators
measuring past and present trends [a]
 May also take into account future developments that are based on
alternative values of the indicators in the future [b].
 The use of indicators in projections is reflected in a direct link with
the indicators measuring past trends [c].
 In order to define statistical development that would support policy
formulation, links are needed to translate policy formulation

• into indicators [d].
• indicators into the design and compilation of macro accounts [e] and
• macro accounts into statistical development [f].
 The derivation of values of indicators are represented by the
reverse links
• between statistics and the compilation of macro accounts [g], and
• between the macro accounts data and the derivation of indicator values [h].
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Integration of Industry Data in SUT
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
products
Mineral, manufacturing, electricity, gas,
water and construction products
Services products
TOTAL
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
Total
economy
Agriculture,
hunting,
forestry and
fishing
Mining,
manufacturing,
electricity, gas,
water,
construction
Services
industries
Imports
87
87
0
0
37
2,153
1,364
3,604
2
0
89
2,112
11
2,123
39
1,353
1,392
345
117
499
Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate
consumption consumption consumption consumption
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
products
Mineral, manufacturing, electricity, gas,
water and construction products
Services products
TOTAL
Compensation of employees
Taxes less subsidies on production and
imports
Consumption of fixed capital
Operating surplus / mixed income, net
TOTAL
Gross capital formation
Govern- HouseNPISH
ment
holds
Gross
Change Acquisitions
fixed
in inven- less disposals
capital
tories of valuables
formation
Exports
88
3
71
14
7
2
28
0
2
1
1,251
544
1,883
36
8
47
969
218
1,258
246
318
578
435
98
540
3
363
368
608
379
1,015
0
16
16
351
23
376
27
10
28
10
*)
Value added by components
Final consumption
expenditure
Value added Value added Value added Value added
762
9
407
346
58
222
679
1,721
-2
11
24
42
49
92
317
865
11
119
338
814
The data presentation in the present exercise is based on the
assumption of full allocation of FISIM to industries and sectors
using those services. If the allocation is to a nominal sector,
negative adjustments to GDP are needed in the cells indicated.
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Refining SNA scope through classifications into the SUT
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
*
BEC
Imports
Output
Sectors
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
Exports
Intermediate
Consumption
Gross capital
formation
(=investments)
Intermediate consumption
HH final; consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Gender
Employment
ISIC Revision 4
A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing
B – Mining and quarrying
C - Manufacturing
D - Electricity, gas , steam and air conditioning supply
E – Water supply; sewerage, waste management, etc
F - Construction
G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles,
motorcycles
H – Transport and storage
I – Accommodation and food service activities
J – Information and communication
K - Financial and insurance activities, etc.
HH final
consumption
BEC (SNA Broad Economic Categories)
Value added
Gross capital formation
(=investments)
GOV
final
consumption
NPISH
final
consumption
Sectors
NFC
FC
GOV
HH
NPISH
CPC
0. Agriculture, forestry and fishery products
1. Ores and minerals; electricity, gas and water
2. Food products, beverages and tobacco; textiles, apparel and leather
products
3. Other transportable goods, except metal products, machinery and
equipment
4. Metal products, machinery and equipment
5. Constructions and construction services
6. Distributive trade services; accommodation, food and beverage serving
services; transport services; and electricity, gas and water distribution
services
7. Financial and related services; real estate services; and rental
17 leasing
services
8. ….
Extending the SUT to Socio-Economic
Analysis
ISIC*Sectors
CPC
*
BEC
CPC
Imports
Output
Exports
Intermediate
Consumption
Classification by
Purpose (COICOP,
COFOG, social
protection categories)
HH Sub-sectors
Other
sectors:
NFC,FC,
GOV,
NPISH
Classification
by Purpose
(social
protection)
Social dimensions
(social indicators)
Gross capital
formation
(=investments)
HH Actual final
consumption &
capital formation
Final
consumption
Of which:
Outlays for social protection: education, health, nutrition, housing
Value added
Employment
ISCO/ ICSE
Gender
Nationals/
non-Nationals
Other sectors:
FC,
GOV, NPISH
Compensation of employees
Mixed income
Employment
Workers Remittances to ROW
18
Integrated Economic
Accounts (IEA)
TOTAL
ECONOMY
U
External sector
R
U
R
External trade
540
taxes less subsidies on production and
imports
mixed income, net
operating surplus, net
Distribution of taxes less subsidies on production and
income accounts imports
current taxes on income
social transfers
other current transfers
DISPOSABLE INCOME, NET
Use of income
account
final consumption expenditure
Adjustment for the change in net equity
of households in pension funds
SAVINGS, NET
CURRENT EXTERNAL BALANCE
gross capital formation
of which: additions to the value of nonproduced assets
less: consumption of fixed capital
acquisition less disposal of non-produced
Capital account assets, net
capital transfers, receivable less payable
NET LENDING
CHANGES IN NET WORTH DUE TO
SAVINGS AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS
U
U
R
R
R
NPISH
U
R
Production
Production
1753
899
137
102
29
10
Production
Production
440
252
30
40
1269
9
3
694
42
133
717
63
158
533
28
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
1632
762
545
15
140
191
51
3
2
432
247
Distribution of
income
compensation of employees, receivable
less payable
property income, receivable less payable
U
R
3604
Income generation
Income
generation
account
U
Production
1883
222
Taxes less subsidies on products
VALUE ADDED/ DOMESTIC
PRODUCT, NET
compensation of employees, payable
Households
-41
output
Production
account
Government
499
Production
intermediate consumption
consumption of fixed capital
Financial
corporations
121
Distribution of
income
Distribution of
income
766
6
2
416
63
38
135
191
213
654
239
1632
Use of income
1399
0
1
0
9
0
0
0
39
24
13
11
391
212
654
269
22
-222
0
65
0
62
38
230
86
14
10
48
0
-41
Capital flows
Capital flows
414
1
4
-38
-38
0
2
16
Distribution of
income
432
60
Distribution of
income
5
Distribution of
income
766
Use of income
0
233
45
Distribution of
income
23
39
167
141
10
29
46
39
49
22
Use of income
0
48
Capital flows
278
42
41
332
36
1164
Use of income
1015
0
-10
11
160
Capital flows
40
178
322
71
Capital flows
68
20
-137
0
-10
2
-30
0
-42
-7
0
2
4
16
33
-69
65
7
0
5
4
150
191
213
289
268
139
108
358
Use of income
368
-11
11
Capital flows
9
32
34
6
-50
-38
5
6
0
1
2
7
1
36
40
Use of income
16
0
24
Capital flows
19
Integration of Sector Data in IEA,
Current and Capital Accounts
Exports of goods and services
External account
Imports of goods and services
of goods and
services
EXTERNAL BALANCE OF GOODS
AND SERVICES
Non-financial
corporations
0
-3
1
23
148
178
3
0
4
21
19
services
TOTAL
ECONOMY
U
External sector
R
U
R
External trade
540
Production
account
Income
generation
account
intermediate consumption
consumption of fixed capital
property income, receivable less payable
Use of income
account
final consumption expenditure
Adjustment for the change in net equity
of households in pension funds
SAVINGS, NET
CURRENT EXTERNAL BALANCE
gross capital formation
of which: additions to the value of nonproduced assets
less: consumption of fixed capital
acquisition less disposal of non-produced
Capital account assets, net
capital transfers, receivable less payable
NET LENDING
CHANGES IN NET WORTH DUE TO
SAVINGS AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS
Government
Households
U
U
U
U
R
R
R
-41
Production
Production
3604
1883
391
416
63
38
191
213
654
239
1632
Use of income
1399
0
1
0
9
0
0
0
39
212
654
269
22
-222
0
65
0
62
38
230
1
4
-38
-38
102
29
10
440
252
30
R
NPISH
U
R
NPI’s by
function:
Production
Production Education,,
Health, Rural
1269
9
694
Development,
3
42
Environment,
etc.
40
717
63
158
533
28
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
Income generation
545
15
140
•Central government
3
•State government
•Local
government 45
121
Distribution
of
Distribution
of
•Social
security
funds
income
income
-Central government
social security funds
-State government
135
86
167
141
social security funds
-Local government
24
10
social
security
funds
13
14
29
39
51
11
10
48
0
-41
Capital flows
Capital flows
414
899
137
Use of income
0
233
Production
Production
1753
222
•Central bank
•Deposit-taking
corporations
Taxes less subsidies on products
133
VALUE ADDED/ DOMESTIC except central banks
PRODUCT, NET
1632
• Money market funds
(MMF)
Income
generation
• Non-MMF
investment
funds
•
Other
financial
intermediaries,
compensation of employees, payable
762
except insurance corporations and
taxes less subsidies on production and
pension funds
imports
191
mixed income, net
432
• Financial auxiliaries
operating surplus, net
• Captive financial 247
institutions
Distribution of
Distribution of
and money lenders
income
income
compensation of employees, receivable
• Insurance corporations
less payable
6
2
• Pension funds 766
Distribution of taxes less subsidies on production and
income accounts imports
current taxes on income
social transfers
other current transfers
DISPOSABLE INCOME, NET
Financial
corporations
499
EXTERNAL BALANCE OF GOODS
AND SERVICES
NFC/FC
ISIC -output
main economic activity
Non-financial
corporations
46
49
22
Use of income
0
48
Capital flows
278
2
0
2
432
•HH by regions
5
16
60
Distribution
vs. non-agric.
HH of
Distribution of•Agric.
Distribution
of
income •Urban vs.
income
rural HH income
•Level of education
of
766
Head of HH
7
42
32
41
•Age groups
of150Head of 6
HH
191
213
178 income per 0
•Disposable
1
1
289
268
322
332
capita/ HH
2
36
139
108
71
36
40
358
1164
•Status of employment
of
Use of income
Use of income
Use of income
Head
of
HH.
16
368
1015
-11
11
Capital flows
9
23
39
0
-10
Capital flows
40
0
24
11
160
Capital flows
68
Capital flows
19
20
-137
0
-10
2
-30
0
-42
0
-3
-7
0
2
4
1
16
33
-69
65
7
0
5
4
34
6
-50
-38
5
23
148
178
3
0
4
21
Refining SNA scope through
classifications: Sub-sectoring the IEA
NFC/FC
Integrated Economic
•Public
non-financial
Accounts
(IEA)
corporations
•National private non-financial
corporations
Exports of goods and services
controlled nonExternal •Foreign
account
Imports of goods and services
of goods and
financial corporations
20
Scope of Macro-economic Analysis by Milestones and Minimum
Required Data Set (MRDS)
•
•
Milestone 1.GDP by Industry and Expenditure in current and constant –
Growth analysis
•
Milestone 2. GNI from Total Economy and Balance of Payments (current, capital and
financial accounts) and GFS transaction accounts
Growth analysis and BOP analysis
•
•
•
•
•
Milestone 3. Production and generation of income accounts for institutional sectors and
general government (including IIP for BoP and GFS transactions and stock in assets
and liabilities)
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis and fiscal analysis
Milestone 4. Production, generation, distribution, redistribution and use of income
accounts and capital accounts for all institutional sectors (up to net lending)
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal and income distribution
analysis
•
--------------- Minimum required macroeconomic data set, annual institutional sector accounts
up to net lending and quarterly GDP and quarterly BoP
•
Milestone 5. Production, income and use accounts, capital accounts and financial
accounts for institutional sectors
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal, income distribution
analysis and investment- financing analysis
•
•
•
Milestone 6. All transaction and flows accounts plus balance sheets
Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis, fiscal income distribution
analysis, financing-debt analysis (Flow of funds) and vulnerability analysis (currency
mismatches, maturity mismatches (roll-over of debt), capital structure (equity vs debt),
21
solvency (assets over liabilities)
Reference
English: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesF/SeriesF_81E.pdf
Russian: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesF/SeriesF_81R.pdf
22
Point for discussion
 Does the present scope, detail and quality of
National Accounts of your country meet
present policy demands in an interconnected
economic and financial domestic and global
economy?
23