Transcript 69th Session of the CoC- Review of the Scale Methodology for

2008 SNA Implementation
GCC Countries – Way forward
High Level Seminar on 2008 SNA Implementation
In GCC Countries
27 May 2010, Muscat, Oman
Gulab Singh
United Nations Statistics Division
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System of National Accounts
Introduction
 Like any other discipline, National Accounts has evolved
over a period of about last three centuries
 Production boundary has been at the heart of the
National Account – whatever is produced only can be
consumption or accumulated.
 Early 18th Century - Sir William Petty and Boisguillebert
first conceived the idea of national income – agriculture
as the primary branch of production
 Later extended to include forestry, fishing and mining,
 Manufacturing commodities, clothing, interest on money,
servants – sterile expenditure
 Turgot (1766) defined productive domain as the one that
included all goods having monetary exchange value
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System of National Accounts
Introduction
 Condillac (1776) argued that all income earning
services, including money lending are part of production
 Adam Smith (1776) dichotomized the economy productive and unproductive labour – labour engaged in
production of goods which can be exchanged for money
 Garnier (1802) challenged dichotomy
• so called ‘unproductive’ services helps,
• production occurs both within and beyond market domain
• Not only material goods but services also part of the production
 Services of government, actors etc were outside the
production boundary
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System of National Accounts
Introduction
 Keynes (1936) defined a clear role for government
services as non-market goods and services, once and
for all breaching the traditional boundary of productive
and unproductive labour.
 In 1928 the League of Nations convened the first
international economic conference
• Encourage compilation of economic statistics
• Adoption of uniform presentation methods
 1939 League of Nations first published World Economic
Survey - NI estimates of about 26 countries – about half
were official estimates and hale were research studies
 1944-45 NA compilers form USA, Canada and UK
discussed problems of international comparability – first
international agreement
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System of National Accounts
Introduction
 1945 UN Sub Committee on NI - met in Dec 1945 and
discussed a paper by Richard Stone
 1947: Sub Committee Report – Origin of SNA trace back
to this report
 In 1952 the UN Secretary General appointed a
committee to formulate international standards to help
compile national accounts on a comparable basis –
1953 SNA was born.
• 3 sectors (enterprises, hh and NPI, and Gen Govt.)
 Revised in 1968, 1993 and 2008
 Production of all goods and services except services
produced by households for own consumption excluding
owner occupied housing and domestic and personal
services by paid staff.
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System of National Accounts
What is SNA?
 The System of National Accounts (SNA) is the
internationally agreed standard set of recommendations
on how to compile measures of economic activity in
accordance with strict accounting conventions based on
economic principles.
Uses of the SNA
 The SNA is a multi-purpose system designed for
• Economic analysis,
• decision-taking and
• policy-making,
 whatever the industrial structure or stage of
economic development reached by a country.
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System of National Accounts
Monitoring the behaviour of the economy - National

accounts data provide information covering both different types of
economic activities and the different sectors of the economy.
It is possible to monitor the movements of major economic flows
such as
• Production, (GDP and per capita GDP the most widely used
indicators of economic growth)
• Household consumption,
• Government consumption,
• Capital formation (capital productivity)
• Exports and imports, (competitiveness, price policy)
• Wages (labour productivity)
• Profits,
• Taxes,
• Lending and borrowing, etc.,
 Structure of economy by economic activities
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System of National Accounts
Macroeconomic analysis
 Causal mechanisms at work within an economy.
 Estimation of the parameters of functional relationships
between different economic variables by applying
econometric methods to time series of data.
Economic policy-making and decision-taking
 Short-term: on the basis of an assessment of the recent behaviour and
current state of the economy and a view, or precise forecast, about likely
future developments.
 Formulation of Five yearly national developmental plans
• Input-output table a very useful tool for perspective planning
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System of National Accounts
International Policy
 International developmental organization lending development assistance and
concessional loans
 Country contribution to international
organizations, lending policy etc.
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2008 SNA changes affecting GDP
• Capitalization of Research and Development.
• Valuation of output for own final use by households
and corporations to include a return to capital.
• Capitalization of military expenditure.
• Refined Method for Calculating Financial
Intermediation Services Indirectly measured
(FISIM).
• Changes in recording of pension entitlements.
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Implementing 2008 SNA
World is moving on ………
• Australia first to implement in 2009.
• EU plans to have European System of National
accounts by 2012 and implementation by its
member states by 2015
• Most of the OECD Countries have plans to
implement by about 2015
• Regional Commissions have initiated process for
implementation by member states- WGs
• The Regional Seminar has discussed strategy for
2008 SNA implementation in ESCWA countries
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2008 SNA implementation - process
Vision
Where we want to be
Political
Commitment
Action Plan
COUNTRY
OWNERSHIP
How to get there
Implementation
Assessment
Where are we now
Statistical capacity
How to stay there
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Implementing 2008 SNA
Things to do……..

Diagnostic analysis using self assessment tool
(questionnaire)– about 3-4 months (Sept 2010);

Write a report (vision document) based on this diagnostic
analysis – about 15-18 months (end 2011);

Consultation at national level with all main stakeholders –
users, producers and providers of statistics to discuss vision
document and priorities;

Revisit statistical agenda and develop link to policy document;


Identify priority areas – for external technical assistance;
Write detailed action plan with a timetable and financing plan to
put these strategic actions into effect in order to achieve
desired results;

Mechanism to monitor progress, including indicators and
reporting to inform the updating and adaptation of the strategy13
Implementing 2008 SNA
Implications
• Demand on resources – financial and manpower
• Extent of resources required would depend on the
level of the SNA chosen to be implemented and
level of development of statistical system
• Launching new surveys (rationalizing existing surveys)
• Modernization of ICT environment
• Training and capacity building, national training institute
▫
Promoting use of administrative data
– MOU with CB, tax authorities and other line ministries
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Phase
General description
Detailed description
Pre-SNA phase
Basic data
Data on production, trade, prices, etc.
Phase 1
Basic indicators of gross
domestic product
(GDP)
Final expenditures on GDP, current and constant
prices; GDP by industry at current and constant prices
Phase 2
Gross national income
and other primary
indicators
External account of primary incomes and current
transfers; capital and financial accounts for the rest of
the world
Phase 3
Institutional sector
accounts: first steps
Production accounts for all institutional sectors;
generation of income, allocation of primary income,
secondary distribution of income, use of income, capital
and financial accounts for general government
Phase 4
Institutional sector
accounts: intermediate
steps
Generation of income, allocation of primary income,
secondary distribution of income, use of income, capital
accounts for all institutional sectors other than general
government
Phase 5
Institutional sector
accounts: last of the
transaction accounts
Financial accounts for all institutional sectors other
than general government
Phase 6
Other flow accounts
and balance sheets
Other changes in asset accounts for all institutional 15
sectors; balance sheets
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