Transcript **** 1 - Yoo Soo HONG

Comparative Regional Economy <Lecture Note 7 > 13.12.05
CRE: (Economic) Power and Geopolitics
* Most parts of this note are borrowed from the references for teaching purpose only.
Semester: Fall 2013
Time: Thursday 9:00-12:00 am
Class Room: 114
Professor: Yoo Soo Hong
Office Hour: By appointment
Mobile: 010-4001-8060
E-mail: [email protected]
1
Basics
2
Introduction

Nations and states are different things, and often coexist uneasily

Political tension is common around an enclave or exclave, particularly if the
population is culturally similar to the majority in a neighboring state

Geopolitics is the study of power relations between states for nationalistic
(patriotic) or scholarly purposes (the latter being critical of the former)

Geopolitics also involves the effort to understand diverse elements of other
cultures as these shape and interact with political elements at the nation
and state level.

Transnational political entities are growing in number and importance.

Countries have both nations and states. Countries become friends and
enemies, depending on the relational interests. Since these interests
change overtime, the friend and enemy relations may change over time.
3
National Power

•
•
•
Foundation of National Diplomacy
Essential element of diplomacy in a system based on state sovereignty
Power is the ability of actor A to get actor B to perform A’s wishes.
Politics is based on power.




The Nature of Power
National capabilities plus attributes
Multifaceted: Tangible and intangible elements
Power as money: A ‘political currenc’y, sometimes used in a charitable
way, most often used to further self-interest
4
Power in International Relations
•
•
Hard Power
Coerce with political, economic or
military power.
(Realism: force, military capability)
•
•
Soft Power
Ability to get what you want
though attraction and not coercion
(Nye, 2004).
(Liberalism: education, art, sports,
values)
5
Hard and Soft Power
 Hard Power
 Ability to make someone else do something, or suffer the consequences
 Rests on negative incentives (“sticks”) and positive
 Soft Power
 Ability to persuade others to follow your lead by being an attractive example
 Iraq may have damaged U.S. soft power
 Realists dismiss soft power
 Measuring Power
− Difficulties in creating a formula for what counts toward national power:
Weighing military power might versus economic capacity and leadership
capability versus national infrastructure, and easy to identify criteria but hard
to weight
− Difficulties in quantifying some aspects of power: e.g. leadership or
perceptions (and misperceptions of power)
6
Characteristics and Diplomatic Application of Power





Characteristics of Power (Measurement is difficult)
Dynamic, constantly in flux: Coercive power, and persuasive power
Both objective and subjective
Relative: In comparison to whom?: Zero-sum game
Situational: Power that can realistically be brought to bear varies depending
on the situation
 Multidimensional: Need to consider all facets and context
 The Nature of Diplomacy: Diplomacy as Applied Power
− Direct diplomatic application of power Includes the use or threat of economic
sanctions and the threat of military force
− Indirect diplomatic application of power Involves a communications process
of a country skillfully advancing its policy preferences, arguing the merits of
its position, and persuading others to join it in promoting those goals or at
least to accede to them
7
State and Nation
 State
• A state is an independent country (though the term indicates a part of a country
in common speech) . An independent country is afforded sovereignty by
international laws, agreements, and precedents. Internationally recognized
boundaries
•
States supply public goods (like roads and education), regulate economic
relations, seek legitimacy in the eyes of citizens and others, and direct relations
with other states
 Nation
• A nation is a group of people with a claim to a shared past, common culture, and
collective destiny
– Some nations are virtually coextensive with states, forming nation-states
(e.g. Japan, Sweden, Mongolia)
– Some nations are struggling for autonomy/sovereignty and may lie entirely
within a state (Quebec's situation in Canada) or across state borders
(Kurdistan's situation in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria region)
•
Nationalism
– The passionate defense of national interests, either in a nation-state
framework (where it is also called patriotism) or outside of such framework
(where it is called by various names such as treason and terrorism, and
usually suppressed violently)
8
Theories and Approaches
Isolationism /Nationalism
vs.
Internationalism
Realism
Idealism
liberalism
Wilsonianism
Balance of power
Hegemonic realism
9
Alliances
 Positive
• Two or more states combine military capabilities; formal agreements to
coordinate behavior
• Increase deterrence
• Increased defense capabilities
• Allies don’t ally with enemies

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Negative
Can increase capabilities of aggressive states
Provoke formation of counter-alliances
Can draw in otherwise neutral states
Must try to control behavior of allies
Today’s ally may be tomorrow’s enemy
Entangle states in disputes of allies
Stimulate envy of states outside
the alliance
10
Balance of Power
•
Peace most likely to be maintained when military power is distributed
so that no single power or bloc can dominate
•
An ambiguous concept
•
Weakness invites attack, so countervailing power must be used to deter
potential aggressors
•
Size principle: competing alliances are roughly equal in power
•
Stay vigilant—identify potential threats and opportunities
•
Seek allies when you cannot match the armaments of an adversary
•
Remain flexible in making alliances
•
Oppose any state that seeks hegemony
•
Be moderate in victory
11
Criticisms of
Balance of Power Theory
•
•
•
•
•
The theory’s rules are contradictory
It assumes that policymakers possess accurate, timely information about
other states
The tendency of defense planners to engage in worst-case scenario
planning can spark an arms race.
It assumes that decision makers are
risk averse
It has not been effective
Alternatives to Balance of Power
•
•
Hegemonic Stability Theory
A concert of great powers
– Common sense of duty
– Normative consensus is fragile
12
Balance of Power Models
•
Uni-polarity
– United States just after World War II
– United States now?—Bush doctrine
•
Bipolarity
– United States/Soviet Union 1949–1989
– NATO–Warsaw Pact
– Extended deterrence
•
Multi-polarity
13
(Super)powers
•
•
•
“The Big Three” (Empires/Superpowers)
- The United States
- The European Union
- China
The “Swing States” (Balancers)
- Russia
- India
- Japan
“Regional Powers”: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Nigeria,
Australia
14
Economic Power of Three Powers
(%)
US
EU
China
Global GDP (PPP)
21
23
11
Military spending
48
20
8
R&D
30
24
18
Foreign reserves holdings
64
27
3.1 Tril. USD*
Goods exports
14
42
8
Goods imports
21
43
7
FDI inflows
13
41
5
FDI outflows
18
47
1
Population
5
7
20
* 2012
Source: Adapted from Parag Khanna.
15
Current Trillion US $
Growth and the Development Experience:
GDP of Major Economies: 1960-2010
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
China
Germany
Japan
United
States
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Source: World Development Report
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
16
Growth and the Development Experience: Major OECD
Economies’ GDP Per Capita: 1970-2010
50
45
Current Thousand US $
40
France
35
30
Germany
25
20
Japan
15
United
States
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: World Development Report
1995
2000
2005
2010
17
Growth and the Development Experience:
Major OECD Economies’ GDP Per Capita: 1970-2010
50
45
Current Thousand US $
40
United
Kingdom
35
30
United
States
25
Canada
20
15
Italy
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: World Development Report
1995
2000
2005
2010
18
Growth and the Development Experience
GDP Per Capita of BRICI: 1970-2010
12
Current Thousand US $
10
China
8
India
6
Russian
Federation
Brazil
4
Indonesia
2
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: World Development Report
1995
2000
2005
2010
19
Growth and the Development Experience
Major Traders’ International Trade in Goods
Merchandise Trade (X+M): 1990-2010
4500
Current US$ billions
4000
China
3500
3000
Rep. of Korea
2500
Japan
2000
US
1500
Germany
1000
500
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sources: IMF (1990-2008), World Bank (2009-2010)
20
6
7
5
6
Current US $ (Thousands)
Current US $ (Trillions)
Growth and the Development Experience
Chinese and Indian Growth: 1990-2010
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
China Total GDP
China GDP per Capita
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
India Total GDP
India GDP per Capita
Sources: World Development Report, World Bank (2009), IMF(2010)
21
annual %
Chinese and Indian Annual Growth Rates
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
China
Source: World Development Report
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
India
22
Globalization
• Economic Integration
- U.S.-China: U.S. is China’s largest export market
- Transatlantic area: World’s largest trading zone
- China - E.U.: E.U. is China’s largest trading partner
• Political Integration - Democratization
- 123 electoral democracies in 2007 vs. fewer than 70 in the 1980s
• Demographic Integration - Blending
- U.S.-Latin America: Latinos are 14% of the total U.S. population
(expected to grow to 29% by 2050)
- E.U.-Arab world: 50% of first-generation Arab emigrants go to Europe
- China - Asia: 35 million overseas Chinese across East Asia, with
disproportionate wealth and influence (e.g. 1% of Philippines population,
but control 60% of the economy)
23
Competing for “The Second World”
•
Eastern Europe: Russia, Ukraine, Balkans,
Turkey, Caucasus
•
Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Afghanistan, Pakistan
•
Latin America: Mexico, Venezuela,
Colombia, Brazil, Chile
•
Middle East: Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Levant, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
Iran
•
South/East Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, India
24
Competition for Regional Power
 Eastern Europe: Russia, Ukraine, Balkans,
Turkey, Caucasus
• Russia: EU member or Chinese petro-vassal
• Ukraine: Mitteleuropa or Osteuropa
• Turkey: “Marching east to west” or neo-Ottomanism
• Balkans: Member-state-building
• Caucasus: The cork in the Caspian
 Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Afghanistan, Pakistan
• Kazakhstan: “Happiness is multiple pipelines”
• Uzbekistan: The Silk Road’s blocked artery
• Afghanistan: Taming south-central Asia
• Pakistan: “The most dangerous country in the world”
25
 Latin America: Mexico, Venezuela,
Colombia, Brazil, Chile
• Mexico: NAFTA plus
• Venezuela: Bolivar’s revenge
• Colombia: The Andean Balkans
• Brazil: The Southern Pole
• Chile: Entering the First World
 Middle East: Morocco, Libya, Egypt,
Levant, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran
• Morocco: Greater Mediterranean Union
• Libya: From green to blue
• Egypt: Bureaucrats and theocrats
• Levant: Road maps
• Iraq: Buffer, black hole, and broken boundary
• Saudi Arabia: Gulf streams
• UAE: Las Vegas meets Singapore
• Iran: Virtues and vices
26
 South/East Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia,
Thailand, Vietnam, India, Japan, Korea
• Malaysia and Indonesia: Playing all sides
• Thailand and Vietnam: The inner triangle
• India: Looking east
• Japan, Korea, and Australia: China’s first world seduction

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hot Spots
Iraq
Iran/Straits of Hormuz
Israel/Palestine
Gulf of Aden
Afghan-Pakistan border
North Korea
Straits of Malacca
27
International Issues and Approaches

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hot Issues
Economic imbalances
Terrorism
Energy security
Climate
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Poverty
Failed States

•
•
•
•
•
Approches
Bottom-up, then scale-up
Comparative advantage and division of labor
Global network governance
Mutual accountability
“People Power"
28
The New Global Governance

•
•
•
•
•
The New Geo-Psychology
From Non-alignment to Multi-alignment
Doing it “Our Way”
The New Regionalism
The Anti-imperial Belt
South-South cooperation
 The New Global Governance
•
Adjusting to geopolitical dynamics
•
Globalization and the diffusion of power
•
Where dot.gov meets dot.com meets dot.org
29
United Nations
•
Security Council: Reform, expansion, legitimacy
•
Peacekeeping
•
Specialized Agencies: UNDP, OCHA, UNHCR, WFP, UNICEF, etc.
•
Bretton Woods: IMF, World Bank, IFC, ILO
•
New Partnerships:
Global Fund to Fight AIDS,
Tuberculosis, and Malaria;
Global Compact
•
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
30
Multilateral Organizations
•
Financial Stability Forum
•
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
•
G8
•
G20
•
OECD
•
International Criminal Court
•
Interpol
•
Organization of American States (OAS)
•
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
•
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
31
Modern History and Geopolitics
32
Imperialism
•
Late 1400s: Europe used transportation and military technology to
conquer colonies
•
Mercantilism: Trade should increase state wealth; increase exports,
decrease imports; used to take advantage of colonies
•
1880s: Final burst colonizes most of Africa
•
China divided into spheres of influence
33
Imperialism Declines:
20th Century
•
Self-determination: Woodrow Wilson, Treaty of Versailles
•
League of Nations mandates
•
World War II saps strength of colonial powers, demonstrates that colonial
powers can be defeated
•
Decolonization from 1947–1960s
•
Neocolonialism: Continued domination of the Global South by the Global
North through economic means
34
European Control
of the Globe
1800
One-third
1915
Four-fifths
1878
Two-thirds
35
Global Imperialism 1914
36
Towards World War II
•
Japan
– Global conflict began with Japanese invasion of Manchuria, 1931
• League of Nations condemned action; Japan simply withdrew from
league
• 1937, Japan launched full-scale invasion of China
– 1937 War In China Resumed
• Nationalists and communists formed "united front" against Japanese
• Unable to effectively work together, they conducted guerilla attacks
– Japan, Germany, Italy ally 1940; neutrality pact with USSR, 1941
•
Italy, Germany, and Russia
– Italy after the Great War
• Italians felt slighted at the Paris Peace Conference
• Mussolini promised national glory, empire
• Invaded Ethiopia (1935-1936), killed 250,000 Ethiopians; annexed
Albania
37
– Germany: deep resentment at Treaty of Versailles
• Harsh terms: reparations, economic restrictions, depression helped
Nazis
• Hitler blamed Jews, communists, liberals for losing war, Versailles
Treaty
– After 1933, Hitler moved to ignore terms of peace settlement
• Withdrew from League, 1933; Rebuilt military, air force; reinstated draft
• Militarized Rhineland, 1936; Austria, 1938; France and Britain did
nothing
– Spanish Civil War 1936 - 1939
• Spanish fascists stage coup against republic; socialists, communists
fight
• Italians, Germans, Russians helped each side but fascists won
– The Munich Conference: Peace for our time?
• In 1938, Germany "appeased" by taking Sudetenland
• Britain and France desperate to avoid war, appeased Hitler
•
Russian-German Non-Aggression Treaty, 1939, shocked world
38
War Leaders
Vs.
39
GDP Trends in WWII
Country
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
Austria
24
27
27
29
27
28
29
12
France
186
199
164
130
116
110
93
101
Germany
351
384
387
412
417
426
437
310
Italy[
141
151
147
144
145
137
117
92
Japan
169
184
192
196
197
194
189
144
Soviet Union
359
366
417
359
274
305
362
343
UK
284
287
316
344
353
361
346
331
USA
800
869
943
1 094
1 235
1 399
1 499
1 474
Allied Total
1 629
1 600
1 331
1 596
1 862
2 065
2 363
2 341
Axis Total
685
746
845
911
902
895
826
466
Allied/Axis GDP
2.38
2.15
1.58
1.75
2.06
2.31
2.86
5.02
40
Towards the Cold War
 The origins of the cold war (1947-1990)
 Unlikely alliance between Britain, USSR, USA held up
for duration of war
 Not without tensions: Soviet resented U.S.-British
delays in European invasion
 Postwar settlement established at Yalta and Potsdam
 Each Allied power to occupy and control territories liberated by its armed
forces
 Stalin agreed to support United States against Japan
 Stalin's plans prevailed; Poland and east Europe became communist allies
 President Truman took hard line at Potsdam, widened differences
 Postwar territorial divisions reflected growing schism between USA, USSR
 Soviets took east Germany, while United States, Britain, and France took west
Germany
 Berlin also divided four ways; by 1950 division seemed permanent
 Churchill spoke of an "iron curtain" across Europe, separating east and
west
41
 Similar division in Korea: Soviets occupied north and United States the
south
 Truman doctrine, 1947: USA would support "free peoples resisting subjugation"
 Perception of world divided between so-called free and enslaved peoples
 Interventionist policy, dedicated to "containment" of communism
 The Marshall Plan, 1948: U.S. aid for the recovery of Europe
 Idea to rebuild European economies and strengthen capitalism
 Soviet response: Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) for
its satellites
 NATO and the Warsaw Pact: militarization of the cold war
 1949, United States created NATO, a regional military alliance against
Soviet aggression
 1955, Soviets formed the Warsaw Pact in response
 Two global superpowers protecting hegemony with alliances
 United Nations, established 1945 to maintain international peace and
security
42
Beginning of the Cold War
•
•
•
Postwar Europe
– Divided into competing political, military, economic blocs
• NATO, European Economic Communities; Warsaw Pact, COMECON
– Western Europe
• U.S. allies supported by permanent presence of American army
• Parliamentary governments, capitalist economies
– Eastern Europe
• Dominated by Soviet Union, Red Army, secret police
• Communist governments modeled after USSR dominate countries
Germany divided east and west in 1949
– Soviets refused to withdraw from eastern Germany after World War II
– Allied sectors reunited 1947-1948, Berlin remained divided as well
– Berlin blockade and airlift, 1948-1949
– The Berlin Wall, 1961
In Asia
– Turkey, Greece, Iran pressured by USSR, allies: US responds with Truman Doctrine
– Communist Chinese armed by USSR, drive Nationalists out of China by 1949
– Korea divided into Communist North, Pro-Western South: North invades South in 1950
– Communists influence Viet Minh in Indo-China
43
International Organizations
•
•
•
Post-1945
–
–
Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
–
–
–
Red Cross, an international humanitarian agency, founded 1964
Greenpeace, an environmental organization, founded in 1970
Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch
The United Nations
–
–
–
–
•
Era of international cooperation
Many global problems cannot be solved by national governments
Founded 1945 "to maintain international peace and security"
Security Council
•
•
•
Permanent Veto Nations: UK, US, France, Russia, China
Not successful at preventing wars, for example, Iran-Iraq war
Often can diffuse tense situations
General Assembly
•
•
•
Each nation has one vote; poor, 3rd world nations dominate
Cannot legislate, but has influence in international community
Often used as a sounding board for world concerns, ignored by West
ECOSOC, UN Commission of Refugees, WHO
•
•
•
More successful in health and educational goals
Eradication of smallpox and other diseases
Decrease in child mortality, increase in female literacy
Human rights: an ancient concept, gaining wider acceptance
–
Nuremberg Trials of Nazis
–
UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights
•
•
•
•
Established concept of "crimes against humanity“
Permanent court sits in Hague, Netherlands for war crimes trials
Forbids slavery, torture, discrimination
Guarantees basic human rights, freedoms
44
Global Military Spending
SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010
45
Soviet Union and Communism
46
US Strategy
1.
Nuclear Deterrence
2.
Forward Presence
3.
Peacetime Military Buildup
4.
Own the sea
5.
NATO
6.
Limited War
47
Forward Presence
48
Limited War

Korean War 1950-1953
– Fight locally
– Prevent escalation
• Geography
• Weapons
• Objectives
• Negotiate and fight
49
50
JFK: Renewed Focus on “Wars of Liberation”
51
1979-1981
 Redefinition of Threat
• Iranian Revolution
•
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
52
“Arc of Crisis”
53
The Cold War Ends
54
US role:
Balancer in Regional Relationships
55
US Role:
Crush Regional Aggressors; Reestablish Regional
Balance of Power
56
Strategy
•
Balance of power politics, globally and regionally
•
Strategic deterrence and missile defense
•
Maintain forward presence and allies
•
Ability to fight regional wars
•
Base force and Reconstitution
57
Threats
•
Regional Instability
•
Proliferation of WMD (asymmetric threats)
•
Transnational problems (terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime)
•
Threats to democratic transitions
•
“Wild cards” (overthrow of ally, revolution in ally, new technological
breakthrough)
58
The Realist Road to Security
Assumptions and Policy Recommendations
59
60
New Rivals
•
•
Nation-state rivalries
Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger
VS.
61
Demographic Future: European Declining
Population estimates and projections, selected countries 1950-2050. UN 2008-based medium variant projections
2000
Brazil
China
India
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
Northern America
Japan
1800
1600
1400
1200
Estimates
Projections
1000
800
600
400
200
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
62
The Coming Eclipse and New Rise


Diminution of Europe, and the ‘West’ more broadly, on the world stage
Demographic ‘decline’ and welfare/ageing burdens
• Military security; energy security; geopolitical ‘clout’.
• Marginalisation of EU by US
• Marginalisation of EU and US by ‘The Rest’
Economic/geopolitical future is Chinese. Or Indian? Latin American? African?
63
Who are ‘The Rest’?

BRICs no longer a coherent concept
Russia: demographic (etc.) basket case
South Africa: disappointed expectations
Core members: Brazil, India, China
In the wings: Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia

NE and SE Asia

Gulf states – rentier economies: small, rich, peculiar.

Africa (increasingly an extension of Chinese mineral resources?)
64
Bipolar System: 1945-1991
•
US and USSR eye each other as enemies even before WW II end
•
East-West axis established; Cold War runs its course
– U.S. pursued Containment Doctrine—globalization of policy
– NATO v. Warsaw Pact
– Third world lobbied for support; nonalignment movement
– Confrontations do occur--Cuban missile crisis
– Proxy Wars (Nixon Doctrine)—Middle East, Vietnam, Afghanistan
– Détente: SALT I/II, Nixon “Plays China Card”
– Reagan largely credited for knockout blow: SDI
– Gorbachev undermines Soviet system with glasnost and perestroika
– The fall of the USSR ends bipolar system
65
The 21st Century:
The Genesis of a New System
• One power pole-U.S. hegemony. Will this last?
• U.S. stronger military than any other hegemon in history
• But U.S. military power has 3 problems: Better at deterring than compelling, built
to fight other militaries, and other states still possess power
• Multipolar urges--regional powers such as the European Union
• Imperial Overstretch/Decline? (Paul Kennedy)
• Limited unipolarity?--power of U.S. restrained by international organizations,
international law, and interdependence
• Future polarity--highly contested
• U.S. must lead actively but not too aggressively
• U.S. problem isn’t overstretch, it’s government paralysis
• But for now, let’s soak up the “unipolar moment”
66
Charles Krauthammer:
The Unipolar Moment (1990) (2002) (2006)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Thinking about post-Cold War US foreign policy has been led astray by three
conventionally-accepted but mistaken assumptions about the character of the
post-Cold War environment.
(1) that the world is now multipolar, whereas it is in fact unipolar, with the USA
the sole superpower, at least for present policy purposes
(2) that the US domestic consensus favors internationalism rather than
isolationism—Krauthammer admits he was wrong here
(3) that in consequence of the Soviet collapse, the threat of war has
substantially diminished. Dangers may be smaller, but more widespread.
Krauthammer thought this unipolarity would last 30 years or so.
Revisited in 2002 and 2006 “Apogee”
Halfway through the 30 years, still no alliances against U.S.
Some trouble being made by Iran, assisted by Russia/China
Economic concerns, debt, EU emerging, China
But no clear end in sight. Fewer state-on-state conflicts. Why?
67
World Division
•
Global South: Less-developed countries
•
Global North: Wealthy industrialized countries
•
Third World: Cold War term for Global South
•
First World: Cold War term for Global North democracies
•
Second World: Cold War term for Soviet Union and other communist
countries
•
Fourth World: Indigenous peoples
68
Economic Power by Region
and Implications
69
Global South
85% of the
World’s People
20% of the
world’s wealth
70
Global North, Global South
71
Global North–South Divide
in Wealth and Population
72

•
•
•
•
•
Global North
Democratic
Technologically inventive
Wealthy
Aging populations
Low population growth
 Global South
• Most states:
– Not democratic
– Low technology use
– Poor
– Rapid population growth
– Overstrained social and ecological systems
• 80 percent global population
• 15 percent global wealth
73
Poverty
74
Dependency Theory

Reasons for underdevelopment are external

Capitalist world economy is based on a division of labor between the
industrialized core and underdeveloped periphery

Global North keeps Global South poor through:
– Terms of trade and finance
– Exploitation by multinational corporations
– Dualism—rural impoverished sector and urban modernizing sector

Has trouble explaining the NICs
75
Global South’s Search for Economic Power




Import-substitution industrialization
Switch to export-led industrialization
New International Economic Order (1974)
– Pushed by Group of 77
– Called for changes in the international economic system that would
benefit development in the Global South and redistribute some global
wealth to it
– Most were rejected by the Global North
Regional trade regimes:
– NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement
– Mercosur: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
– APEC: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
– ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
– SADC: Southern African Development Community
76

Trade, Aid, Investment, Debt Relief
– Bilateral aid: official development assistance
– Multilateral aid: World Bank
• Conditionality
– Foreign direct investment (FDI)
– Multinational corporations (MNCs)
– Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs)


The Washington Consensus (Free market approach is optimal)
Other approaches:
– Developmental state
– Transitional economies (Ex-socialist economies)
Emerging Consensus:
– Embraces both the developmental state and the free market

77
Current Day Power Competition
78
Clash of Civilizations: Samuel Huntington (1991)


After the Cold War, what are we going to fight about? Democracies
generally have same western values, rarely fight each other.
People's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of
conflict in the post-Cold War world.
Jihad vs. McWorld: Benjamin Barber (1992)






Fragmentation and globalization compete
McDonalds and MNCs now have global operations - produce and sell products
around the world.
World becomes smaller than ever - interconnected by internet,
telecommunications
Tribal enclaves lure members
These two forces collide to produce catastrophe and anomie
“Glocalization”
79
Challenges to Authority of States
External challenges--McWorld
• Political integration:
– Increase in number and
importance of international
actors
• Economic interdependence
• Social integration
• Weakening Western Orientation
Internal challenges—
Jihad
• Ethnic rivalries and tribalism:
– State disintegration –i.e.,
former Yugoslavia, East
Timor, Turkey, and Rwanda
• Increased number of refugees
• Movement toward autonomy
(i.e., Kosovo)
80
Superpowers




Superpowers are countries, or
grouping of countries, with global
influence and power
They have economic, cultural, military
and geo-political influence
Economic wealth (see graph) is only
one aspect of superpower status
One way to group the world's most
powerful is:
•The following 15 slides are adapted
from Pearson Company (see references). 81
Geography of Power





In terms of superpower status, size
is not everything
Some ‘demographic superpowers’
have relatively little economic
power
Military spending (see table) is one
form of power, as it allows
superpowers such as the USA to
have global military reach
The USA is a highly influential
power in economic, military,
geopolitical and cultural terms
Only the EU comes close to the
influence of the USA, but the EU is
a federation of 27 nation states who
do not always agree
2008/09 data
Total Population
(millions)
Total military
spending
($ billions)
China
1,334
84
India
1,174
30
EU
500
280
USA
308
607
Indonesia
231
4
Brazil
192
15
Pakistan
168
4
Bangladesh
162
1
Nigeria
154
1
Russia
141
59
Japan
127
46
Mexico
107
4
Gulf States
40
40
82
Changing Patterns of Power




Superpowers shift over time; the Uni-polar world of the British Empire gave way to the Bipolar cold war world.
In 1990, as the USSR collapsed, a new USA dominated Uni-polar world was ushered in;
the EU has grown to be increasingly powerful also.
It is expected that the future will be a more complex, fragmented and regional multi-polar
world.
Power can decline as well as grow.
83
The BRICs and Emerging Powers



The BRICs (Brazil,
Russia, India and China)
are the emerging super
powers
Mexico and the Gulf
States could lay claim to
be in this group also
This group of countries is
very different, with
perhaps only China
capable of challenging
the USA in the near
future.
China
Communist one-party state which has become the ‘workshop
of the world’; rapid economic growth based on
manufacturing and trade; significant military and
demographic power
Russia
Russia is what is left of the USSR; it has a huge nuclear
weapons arsenal, and vast oil and gas reserves making it
globally important. It has an ageing, unhealthy population
and weak economy.
India
A huge, and very youthful, population give India enormous
potential for growth. It has some world class industry such as
IT, but very poor infrastructure and 100s millions of very
poor people
Brazil
Increasingly influential in Latin America, with a strong,
diversified economy and growing middle class. It tends to
punch below its weight internationally. It is sometimes
referred to as an ‘agricultural superpower’.
Mexico
An influential country with strong ties to the USA; Mexico’s
economy is often shaky and it has problems with crime and
corruption.
Gulf
States
Increasingly important in terms of remaining global oil and
gas reserves; has attempted to diversify and become a hub
between Europe and Asia, with some success.
84






The BRICs, and NICs, have
developed in recent decades.
This suggests some countries have
broken free from dependency and
developed.
Wallerstein’s World Systems
Theory seeks to model this ‘three
sided world’ (see right figure).
Wallerstein’s ideas are partly
related to the economic theory of
Long-term cycles (Kondratiev
waves - see right table).
These suggest economic growth
passes through phases based on
key new technologies.
These new technologies bring
growth to particular geographical
regions.
Date and Cycle
Technology
Location
1770-1850 Industrial
Revolution
Cotton, steam engines
UK
1850-1920 Industrialization Rail, steam ships, iron
and steel,
Increased
involvement of
Europe and USA
1920-1945 Motorization
Petrochemicals, cars,
electricity
Increasing
dominance of the
USA
1945– 1990 Cold war era
White goods, consumer
goods
Rise of Japan and
Asian Tigers
1990 onwards
Internet, wireless,
biotechnology
Shifts in production
toward India and
China
2020 onwards?
????
Asia?
85
The Role of Superpowers




In the past, superpowers such as the
British Empire and other Imperial
powers maintained direct control over
territories.
This era of colonialism ended in the
period 1945-1980 when colonies
gained independence.
A characteristic of a superpower is
the ability to take control, through war,
of troublesome regions believed to
threaten superpower security.
Whilst rare, superpowers still take
direct military control over territory.
Direct military
conquest /
occupation of
territory
Imposition of an
Ethnic cleansing
alien legal
of difficult
system and
groups
ownership rights
Mechanisms
of Colonial
Control
Cultural
Economic
imperialism
imperialism e.g.
through art,
exporting to the
religion and
home country
language
Government by
Invasion of Afghanistan
1980, USSR
Invasion of Panama
1989, USA
First Gulf War (Kuwait, Iraq)
1990, USA, UK, Egypt , Saudi Arabia
and others
Bombing of Bosnia
1995, NATO
War in Afghanistan
2001, NATO led coalition
dictat, through
colonial
administrators
86
Neo-colonialism?






Superpowers use subtle, indirect ways
to maintain power today (see right map).
These ways are often termed neocolonialism.
Aid is often given to allies and ‘friends’
rather than the most needy countries
(see table), and much aid is ‘tied’ in
various ways.
Debt repayments channel money from
the developing to the developed world.
Even debt relief schemes, such as the
HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries)
scheme (see map) have been criticized .
For HIPC countries to qualify for debt
relief, they must follow the economic
policies of bankers in the developed
world. (e.g. Mexico, Korea and IMF)
Top 10 Recipients of USA
foreign aid
Israel
Egypt
Columbia
Jordan
2006 ($ millions)
2,520
1,795
558
461
Pakistan
698
Peru
133
Indonesia
Kenya
158
213
Bolivia
122
Ukraine
115
87
International Trade





The world trade system is essentially based on the western free trade
system.
The USA and EU have been very influential at the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) in the past.
The World’s two major stock markets (London and New York) are all in
the ‘west’.
In a globalized world, TNCs play a crucial role in world trade, and most
TNCs originate in the EU and USA.
Emerging superpowers, especially China, have taken advantage of
global trade to develop and grow.
88
International Decision Making
WTO member
IMF (over 5% of votes)
•
G20
•
G8
•
Membership of Inter-gover
nmental organisations
NATO
•
Global decision making revolves
around inter-governmental
organisation (IGOs)
Some IGOs involve all nations, such
as the U.N. – others are more
exclusive such as the G8, or
regional such as NATO.
Membership and voting rights may
give key players disproportionate
power.
Some influential organisations such
as the World Economic Forum
(Davos Group) are not-for-profit
organisations outside government
control.
IGOs do change over time; the G20
has become more influential in
recent years, reflecting the
increasing power of the BRICs
UN Security Council
•
USA
EU
China
Russia
India
Brazil
Japan
89
Cultural Influence
•
•
•
•
Superpowers exert a cultural influence – the widespread use of English, tea
drinking and cricket are a cultural legacy of the British Empire
Today, the most influential culture is that of the USA
‘Americanisation’ suggests that this culture is spreading. This spread is made
easier by:
- Global brands and logos
- The Global media e.g. Disney and CNN
- Globalised transport and communications connections
- American based TNCs
- Widespread use of English
Is ‘Mcdonaldisation’ or ‘Cocacolonisation’ a positive or negative
development?
- The issue tends to be divisive; some anti-globalisation campaigners
accuse the USA of cultural imperialism, and blame US consumer culture
for the erosion of local cultural traditions. On the other hand, many
Chinese see Americanisation as positive, as it shows progress and
development.
90
Superpower Futures
•
•
•
•
•
•
As the primary emerging superpower,
China has much to gain from its growing
global status.
Poverty reduction in China (see graph) has
been staggering.
China has become motorised, with over
170 million vehicles at the end of 2008;
some estimates suggest there were only
3000 cars in Beijing in 1978.
Inequality in China is a growing issue,
although in general the population is
much better off.
In Brazil and India there is a growing
middle class of consumers.
In India by 2009 there were 500 million
mobile phones in use and over 700 million
in China.
91
Superpower Resources
•
Growth, wealth and the status that
accompanies it brings new
problems to the emerging powers.
•
Chief among these is pollution; as
resources consumption and ecofootprints grow, so does pollution .
•
What if eco-footprints in the BRICs
(see graph) begin to approach
those of the developed world?
92
Declining Superpowers?
•
•
•
•
The emergence of the BRICs does
challenge the hegemony of the
USA
The USA is not about to enter
precipitous decline, but its influence
may lessen
There is evidence that the BRICs
are catching up, as the number of
largest TNCs based in the USA falls,
but rises in the BRICs (see graph)
There is also some unease among
the BRICs that IGOs such as the
G8 and UN Security Council are
dominated by the USA and EU
93
Development or Dependency?
•
Does the rise of the BRICs represent an opportunity for the least
developed countries to develop new relationships with wealthy countries?
• China’s interest in the developing world, especially Africa, has grown in
the last 10 years
• China has invested in infrastructure such as road and rail, which Africa
desperately needs.
• In some ways any investment is good investment
• Critics argue that Africa is still exporting its raw materials cheaply, and
that the investment brings few jobs – Chinese workers are often used
instead of local labour.
China’s trade with Africa increased 10-fold between 1999 and 2009, to $110
billion Most trade is with oil exporters – Sudan, Congo, Equatorial
Guinea, Nigeria, Angola China approved $10 billion in loans to African
nations in 2009 China has invested in Zambian copper mines, iron ore
mines in GabonChina has gifted $150 to build a new African Union
headquarters in Addis Adaba
94
Superpower Conflict
•
•
Would a multi-polar global future increase tension and conflict?
Sources of tension might be considered in terms of three global agendas:
Strategic
Agenda
• The USA dominates global foreign policy, but its ‘War or Terror’ brings it into conflict with
the Islamic world and potentially the oil rich Gulf States. China and Russia tend to support
Iran and opposed the two Gulf Wars, whereas the USA strongly opposes Iran’s nuclear
ambitions. Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan are still unresolved problems and the USA is
‘stretched’ in terms of international involvement.
Economic
Agenda
• Global economic growth and globalisation place increased pressure on natural resources
(land for food, water, fossil fuels, ores and minerals); conflict over resources is possible in
the future and locations such as Africa, the Gulf States and Russia are likely to become
increasingly important as areas with large remaining reserves of resources. This could
increase tensions as the Superpowers and emerging powers squabble over access to
resources.
Climate
Agenda
• The difficult and protracted Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in Dec 2009 showed that
the USA, EU and BRICs do not share the same views on environmental issues; relations
between China and the USA were chilly to say the least; environmental (and human
rights) issues have some potential to sour international relations.
95
Economic Interdependence
•
Transnational flow of trade, investment capital, and currencies have
economically entwined all countries.
•
Creation and strengthening of global and regional economic organizations
(i.e., the World Bank, IMF, WTO, and EU)
•
Emphasis on free trade, particularly within regional alliances (NAFTA, EU,
ASEAN, and Mercosur)
•
Trade and monetary tensions particularly when state sovereignty is at stake.
•
Problem areas: surrendering sovereignty, lack of corporate regulation/differing
regulations between states, protecting worker rights
96
Economic Disparity:
The Growing Gap between North and South
•
GNP disparity between Economically Developed Countries (EDCs) and Less
Developed Countries (LDCs). Most EDCs in North.
•
Less developed countries demand new international economic order--one with an
equal distribution of wealth
•
EDCs must recognize the complex link between poverty and political violence
•
NICs and BRICs also common terms
97
The Quality of Life: Changes and Choices
•
•
Increasing importance of human rights
– Women’s rights
– Recognition of Genocide (Darfur v. Rwanda)
– International Criminal Court
– International Court of Justice
Emphasis on the environment
– Idea of sustainable development
98
BTI 2010 Management Index
Political Management in International
Comparison
Political leadership toward democracy
and a market economy
successful
successful with weaknesses
moderate
weak
failed or non-existent
99
Globalization and Geopolitics
•
•
•
•
New Threat Paradigm
– Traditional state-oriented model necessary but not sufficient
– International boundaries less restrictive
– Networks transcending international borders pose great threats to our
national interests, security, and homeland
Many view all globalization as Pro-United States
– Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions, and power
“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws”
– Blame United States for their problems—easy way to divert attention
“Have-nots”
– Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism
100
North vs. South
•
The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone, replaced by a “North-South
Estrangement”
•
Economic rift between the “Haves” (North) and the “Have-Nots” (South)
widens
•
Consider:
– 1.4 billion live on less than $1.25 a day
– 1.75 billion acutely deprived in health, education, and/or standard of
living
101
North vs. South
•
Consider:
– Afghanistan’s GNI/capita is 1,419 compared to the US rate of
47,094—33 times greater!
– 884 million lack access to safe water and 3.6 million die each year
from water-related diseases
– 2.5 billion lack access to improved sanitation, including 1.2 billion who
have no facilities at all
•
Consider:
– From 1990 to 2009, global child mortality dropped by 30%
– However, in 2009, over 8 million children died before age 5
• 80 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
102
North vs. South
•
Consider:
– Child born in Zimbabwe today has the approximate life expectancy (47
years) of someone born in United States in 1900
– World average for education is 7.4 years
• 12.4 years in United States
• 4.5 years Sub-Saharan Africa
These horrors—particularly in poverty—lead to hopelessness, which fuels
extremism; and often, extremism leads to terrorism.
103
Religious Conflicts
•
Religion can be a powerful force in warfare by reinforcing ethnicity in
making a conflict more intractable and cruel
•
Not usually the only reason for conflict, but frequently plays a pivotal role
(i.e., Shia-Sunni conflict)
– Share fundamental beliefs/practices
– Difference originally political, involving who should lead after
Muhammad’s death
104
Religious Conflicts
•
Despite religious conflicts, many similarities exist between Christianity,
Judaism, and Islam…
– Are monotheistic (believe in one god)
– Descendents of Abraham
– Accept concept of sin, the value of prayer, and necessity of repentance
– Find meaning in life through deep, personal relationship with God
•
Religion and violence
– Belief of belonging to a chosen people
– Belief in aggressive missionarism
– Religion as symbolic structure of conflict
•
Religion can become the invoked ideology or “social cleavage along which
other struggles become mapped”
– Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq - Political struggle or spiritual?
105
Ethnic Conflicts
 Definitions:
– Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable” population from a
given territory due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic or
ideological factors
– Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of a group of people
because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race
 According to the UN Commission of Experts, “ethnic cleansing” covers a
host of criminal offenses, including:
– Use of human shields
– Mass murder
– Mistreatment of civilian prisoners
– Destruction of cultural property
 Individuals enabling “ethnic cleansing” face criminal prosecution for
crimes against humanity, etc.
106
Future Multi-polarity
•
United States
•
China
•
Russia
•
European Union
•
Japan
•
Brazil
•
India
107
Wallerstein’s World-Systems Theory
1.
The world economy has one market and a global division of labor.
2.
Although the world has multiple states, almost everything takes place
within the context of the world economy.
3.
The world economy has a three-tier structure.

European nations and those settled by European migrants established
colonies throughout the world to extract wealth.

This period of colonialism established the current imbalance in world
economic and political power
108
Three Tier Structure
Core
Processes that incorporate higher
levels of education, higher salaries,
and more technology
* Generate more wealth in the world
economy
Periphery
Processes that incorporate lower levels
of education, lower salaries, and
less technology
* Generate less wealth in the world
economy
Semi-periphery
Places where core and periphery processes are both
occurring. Places that are exploited by the core but
then exploit the periphery.
* Serves as a buffer between core and periphery
109
Three-Tier Structure of the World
110
Asia’s View on China’s Military Power
Source: PEW Research Center
111
Preference for Ties with US and/or China
Source: PEW Research Center
112
Rise and Fall of Powers Over Time
Share of Global GDP as a % of World Total 1990 PPP
40.00%
35.00%
France
Germany
30.00%
Italy
United
Kingdom
United States
20.00%
Napoleonic Wars
Axis Title
25.00%
15.00%
10.00%
Western
Europe
Colonial
Expansion
European
Powers
W
W
I
W
W
II
Japan
Cold War
China
India
Former USSR
5.00%
0.00%
0
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1870
1913
1950
1973
1998
113
China SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Strong and capable government
Large, growing unsaturated market
Large skilled labor force
Rapid increase in educational attainment
Very high savings rate
Rapidly increasing technological capabilities
Strong manufactured goods exporter
Strong military
Natural resource poor
Rising income and regional inequality
Rapid deterioration of the environment
Poor rule of law
Real estate bubble
Limited English ability constrain IT enabled
service exports
Opportunities
Threats
Large investments in green technology may
make it a market leader
Development of strong service economy built
on knowledge rather than natural resources
Global warming threatens drought and rising
sea levels
Risk of global protectionist backlash to its
strong export orientation
Risk of pushback from established powers to
its rapid rise
114
India SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Increasing savings rate
Strong rule of law on paper (but not so much
in practice)
Core of English speaking technical workforce
Strong information enabled service export
Young and growing labor force will give
demography dividend if can be productively
employed
Weak coalition governments with limited
capacity to implement change
Corruption
Natural Resource poor
Weak physical infrastructure
Very low educational attainment
Weak military
Weak and over bloated government
Relatively weak technological capabilities
Opportunities
Threats
Strong potential to build on exports of
information enabled services
Strong need to strengthen education and
develop stronger economic social system
Unstable neighborhood
Global warming threatens drought and rising
sea levels
Risk of spreading Naxalite insurgence because
benefits of growth have not trickled down to
rural population
Risk of water war with China
115
Geopolitical
• China’s successful authoritarian cum socialist
economy model is gaining adherents
– Has performed remarkably well for 30 years, plus much less
affected by crisis
– Offers an alternative to Washington Consensus development
model for other developing countries
• Concerns about security in access to natural
resources leads it to
– Trade with natural resource rich rogue regimes
– Strengthen its military capability to ensure supply of natural
resources and project military power to defend its interests
116
Increasing Frictions Trade & Environment
Trade War
Subsumes:
-exchange rate
-global imbalances
-FDI
China and rest of
world
India and rest
of world
Between China and
India
Friction because of China’s
exchange rate
undervaluation and large
trade surpluses.
Not as likely as China since it
has trade deficits.
Compete in many product
areas. May have diverging
position s in Doha trade
Concern about China
buying natural resources
and technology firms.
Like China, although Indian
state-owned firms are not as
active.
Some competition
-Intellectual piracy
Extensive complaints about Fewer complaints about IP
Chinese IP piracy.
piracy than with China.
Resource Wars
Possibly over energy and
resources, such as over
islands in East and South
China Seas.
Climate Change
Not controlling emissions
will lead to global warming
China argues that it’s unfair Same argument as China, plus
to make it pay for CO2
the fact that it is smaller
since problem was created emitter and a poorer country.
by earlier emissions of
now-developed countries.
Risk of geo-engineering
attempts with unknown
consequences if mitigation
efforts fail
China may go for geoengineering if it begins to
experience negative
consequences of climate
change.
Possibly over energy in
general, and water with
neighbors, including China.
India may go for geoengineering if begins to suffer
costs of climate change.
May become more
problematic as they
compete more in trade.
Yes, especially over water
from Himalayan Glaciers
that feed main rivers in
Asia
Perhaps, because China is
already above global
average per capita energy
consumption and CO2
emissions, while India will
be below global averages
even up to 2035.
117
Increasing Frictions-Geopolitical/Security
China and rest of
world
India and rest of
world
Between China and
India
Geopolitical Competition
and Ideological War
Note this is also over
human rights, nuclear
nonproliferation, and form
of government.
Yes with respect to
Western democracies and
Japan.
Not so likely with Western
democracies and Japan
because India’s democratic
government and marketoriented system are more
consistent with those
countries.
Yes because of different
ideologies combined with
frictions on borders, water,
and possibly trade.
Security Conflicts
Cyber warfare
Many current cyber
India potentially has great
attacks are traced to China. capability in this area, but
there is little evidence that it
is active.
Possible if frictions
between them increase.
Military Conflict
Possibly over Taiwan or
Possibly with Pakistan
other neighbors in South
because of old rivalries and
China Seas. China’s support unstable region.
of N. Korea is also a
potential problem.
Limited to border frictions
in short run.
Hegemonic War
Perhaps with U.S. in long
term.
Less likely since India is
Hegemonic war between
ideologically closer to existing them unlikely until both
powers and not considered as become dominant powers.
big a security threat as muchlarger China.
118
Prospects

Over the coming decade, the international community will struggle to
manage the accelerating pace of change and turmoil stemming from
globalization.

Widening economic inequality and the global jihadist insurgency with its
anti-Western ideology will remain particularly vexing challenges to a stable
world order for the foreseeable future.

Countering weapons of mass destruction or mass effect will prove
increasingly difficult, and the probability of such weapons coming into the
hands of terrorists will increase significantly. Climate change and resource
scarcity will be growing causes of humanitarian crises and instability.
119
•
Increasing globalization with both beneficial and disruptive side effects
•
The continued rise of China and India
•
The quickening pace of technological innovation
•
The accelerating proliferation of mass disruption/destruction technologies
•
The growing power and capacity of nonstate actors relative to nationstates
•
The persistence of corrosive regional, ethnic and religious conflicts
•
Increasing resource scarcity and environment degradation
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Definition of Soft Power-Left as the Future Topic
•
Soft power is an ability to attract
others; such an attraction serves
to persuade others to accept one’s
purposes without explicit threat or
violent exchange (Nye, 2004)
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•
•
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Three ways to transform soft
power resources into soft power
effectiveness.
Ability to shape the preferences of
other
Ability to legitimate one’s values,
cultures and policies
Capacity to construct rules and
norms which limit other’s activities
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Tools of Soft Power:
Public Diplomacy v. Cultural Diplomacy
Public Diplomacy
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•
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Government sponsored programs
intended to inform or influence
public opinion in other countries:
its chief instruments are
publications, motion pictures,
cultural exchanges radio and TV.
(One way communication)
Sponsored by the government
Embassies and diplomats play a
major role
Cultural Diplomacy
• Cultural diplomacy establishes a
two-way communication with other
countries.
• Primary focus is not merely
political but also cultural (athletic,
education, art)
• The actor can take on his/her own
agenda independently of the
government.
• More high culture and education
focused (less popular culture,
publications, radio or TV)
• Can be sponsored by the
government but also by private
institutions or NGO.
• Embassies play a major role but
not the only role
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Soft Power Index Result 2010
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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1 France
1 UK
3 USA
4 Germany
5 Switzerland
6 Sweden
7 Denmark
8 Australia
9 Finland
10 Netherlands
11 Spain
12 Canada
13 Singapore
Source: Unknown
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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14 Norway
15 Japan
16 Italy
17 China
18 Israel
19 Korea
20 South Africa
20 Brazil
22 Mexico
23 India
24 UAE
25 Turkey
26 Russia
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Soft Power Index
Business/Innovation:
• International Patents; Business Competitiveness. Corruption. Level of
Corruption: Transparenc.y International Corruption Perception Index,
Innovation
Education:
• Think Tank Presence, Quality of Universities, Foreign Students
Government:
• UN HDI Score Index, Good Governance Index, Freedom Score Index
of Political Freedom and Personal Liberty, Trust in Government, Life
Satisfaction
Culture:
• Tourism, Reach of State Sponsored Media Outlet, Foreign
Correspondents, Language, Influential Languages, Sporting Success
Diplomacy:
• Foreign Aid Overseas, Languages Spoken by Leader, Visa Freedom,
Strength of National Brand, Number of Cultural Missions
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References
A Pearson Company. “6GEO3: Contested Planet Topic 4: Superpower
Geographies” (PPT. Google. Accessed. 2013)
Khanna , Parag. “Geopolitics and Globalization in the 21st Century”. New
America Foundation. (PPT. Google. Accessed. 2013)
Nye, Joseph Jr. 2004. “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.
Public Affairs: New York.
Nye, Joseph Jr. 2011. “The Future of Power” Public Affairs: New York.
PEW Research Center. 2013. “America’s Global Image Remains More Positive
than China’s”.
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