Transcript lesson 10 shifting powers

The rise of BRICs and resource
implications of superpower
growth
Geographical Superpowers
Superpower Geographies
3. Implications of the continued rise of the superpowers?
a) Resource implications of continued growth of superpowers
b) Implications of shifting power for older core regions
b) rise of emerging powers and the implications for the world
c) Tensions between cultures
Learning Objectives:
•Understand the importance of the rise of BRICs
•Understand the implications that growth of
superpowers have in terms of energy, water and land
•Identify the implications that shifting power has for
older core regions
Global power shift
Atlanticist geography (old)
60% of global GDP but only 18% of the world’s population
• Superpower
geography does not
remain static.
• Likely future
scenario is that
the centre of
gravity of global
power continues to
shift east towards
Asia.
• The maps illustrate
old and new global
views of the world:
Pacific geography (new)
52% of global GDP but 50% of the world’s population
4.1. 4. Current trends in rising superpowers
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The BRICs and
emerging powers
The BRICs (Brazil,
Russia, India and
China) are the
emerging super powers
Mexico and the Gulf
States could lay claim
to be in this group also
This group of
countries is very
different, with
perhaps only China
capable of challenging
the USA in the near
future.
China
Communist one-party state which has become the
‘workshop of the world’; rapid economic growth based on
manufacturing and trade; significant military and
demographic power
Russia
Russia is what is left of the USSR; it has a huge nuclear
weapons arsenal, and vast oil and gas reserves making it
globally important. It has an ageing, unhealthy population
and weak economy.
India
A huge, and very youthful, population give India enormous
potential for growth. It has some world class industry such
as IT, but very poor infrastructure and 100s millions of
very poor people
Brazil
Increasingly influential in Latin America, with a strong,
diversified economy and growing middle class. It tends to
punch below its weight internationally. It is sometimes
referred to as an ‘agricultural superpower’.
Mexico
An influential country with strong ties to the USA;
Mexico’s economy is often shaky and it has problems with
crime and corruption.
Gulf
States
Increasingly important in terms of remaining global oil and
gas reserves; has attempted to diversify and become a
hub between Europe and Asia, with some success.
• The BRICs (Brazil,
Russia, China and
India) are likely to
become more
powerful
• will not happen
overnight
• USA (and EU) are
not in imminent
danger of being
relegated to
historical
geography.
Emerging superpowers …
• Rise of the BRICS is related to a
number of geographic factors …
• Size of countries- Russia 1st, China 3rd,
Brazil 5th and India 7th
• Population – China 1st, India 2nd, Brazil
5th, Russia 8th.
• Resources …. See next slide
Emerging Superpowers
Russia – large
quantities of oil and gas
India / China
Large amounts
of coal
Brazil – gold, diamonds,
iron ore and rainforest
But China – doesn’t have vast
supply of resources given its
population size and area (see
Pearson page 97-98 – China
and Africa)
Emerging powers: who’s who?
HDI
0.772
0.817
0.612
0.813
GNI per capita US$
PPP
6710
18 390
3 230
10 260
Broadband internet
users (% pop)
Unemployment rate
(%)
5.0
3.4
0.6
5.2
4.1
9.2
10.7
7.3
GDP from
agriculture (%)
Population growth
rate (%)
(2009 data)
10.6
4.7
17.0
6.1
0.7
Russia
-0.5
India
1.4
Brazil
China
1.2
Copy this map of
rising powers and
also sketch fig. 4.1
on handout
SWOTing the BRICs
SWOTing the BRICs
SWOTing the BRICs
SWOTing the BRICs
Very different BRICs
BRIC
Future based on…..
Challenges
Brazil
Farm exports, hi-tech
industry, biofuels
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Probably has the most potential for ‘smooth’ growth but
only recently become politically and economically stable.
It may not last.
Russia
Energy exports
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Limited manufacturing sector.
Political tensions within Russia and at its borders.
An ageing, unhealthy population and decaying
infrastructure.
India
Hi-tech industry,
outsourcing ,
manufacturing. Youthful,
potentially innovative
population.
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Very poor infrastructure requiring huge investment e.g.
roads and energy
Huge levels of poverty in rural areas and low levels of
education in many areas.
Potential water and even food shortages.
Manufacturing as the
‘workshop to the world’;
own TNCs

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China
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Ageing population as a result of the one-child policy.
Insatiable demand for resources e.g. oil which may
become very costly.
Environmental pollution.
Internal tensions e.g. demands for democracy.
Per capita
GDP (PPP),
2009
$10,500
$15,000
$2,900
$6,550
Current trends in rising superpowers
MULTI-POLAR
future?
USA / EU wane, BRIC power grows.
•
• regional spheres of influence
Broad arc stretching from Turkey eastwards to Indo-China:
region of:
•Unresolved territorial disputes
•6 nuclear powers (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Israel,
NATO)
•Numerous recent conflicts
•Religious conflict
•Rogue and troubled states
•At least 60% of the world’s remaining oil and gas
MULTI-POLAR: the inter-war years
Warning from history?
• fragmented world
• multi-polar world
• interwar years in the 1920s and 1930s.
What is the current balance between emerging
superpowers?
Different perceptions: Beijing
2008 and Delhi 2010
Enter the Dragon – China’s
global ambitions and
significance
• China undoubtedly
has global ambitions
• Since around 2005 it
has moved from a
focus on its own
internal economic
growth to a more
global strategy:
Chinese TNCs
• Phenomenal growth.
• 40 Chinese TNCs in the Forbes
Global 2000 list in 2003, 160+
by 2010
• Most Chinese TNCs are not
global ‘brands’
• A few beginning to be known
worldwide such as Lenovo (PCs),
China Mobile and Air China.
• Internal market in China is so
huge; Chinese companies do not
need to expand abroad, yet.
Changing superpowers
Shifting patterns of
power.
Top 10 TNCs by market capitalization (share value)
2000
2010
USA
Microsoft
USA
Exxon Mobil
USA
General Electric
China
PetroChina
Japan
NTT DoCoMo
USA
Apple Inc.
USA
Cisco Systems
Brazil
Petrobras
USA
Wal-Mart
China
Industrial & Comm Bank of China
USA
Intel Corporation
USA
Microsoft
Japan
USA
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone
Exxon Mobil
China
USA
China Mobile
Berkshire Hathaway
USA
Lucent Technologies
China
China Construction Bank
Germany
Deutsche Telekom
UK/Aust
BHP Billiton
Cumulative causation / multiplier effect
• Useful for
explaining growth
of China
• Free Trade Zones /
EPZs attract
industry, which
subsequently
attracts linked
industries.
1. How does this work?
2. Does it connect to world
systems theory?
China spreads its wings
• China has increased its foreign aid budget to over $2 billion / yr
• China has invested heavily in roads, rail, pipeline and ports in
Africa – often via state owned Chinese companies and using
Chinese labour.
• China has ramped up imports of African oil, minerals and ores –
as well as investing in farming and industry in Africa.
• Chinese companies have purchased / leased large amounts of land
in Africa – even in countries which are considered food insecure.
China in Africa
• Increased flow of FDI into
Africa,
• Especially sub-Saharan Africa.
• Focussed on oil rich and
mineral rich countries
• Importing Chinese workers to
build key infrastructure such
as ports, roads and rail to
export raw materials.
• Neo-colonialism or
desperately needed
investment?
• China gives increasing amounts
of aid to Africa, often
targeted at key infrastructure
projects.
China’s ‘Blue Water’ Navy
• Few ‘blue water’ navies capable of deploying worldwide.
• China’s navy currently coastal; patrols inshore waters.
• Dependence on oil imports - wants to protect shipping routes using own
forces
• Currently expanding nuclear powered attack submarine fleet and has
plans to build aircraft carriers.
• Plan to have a navy capable of patrolling out into the Pacific to what it
calls the ‘Second Island Chain’.
Goodbye G8, hello G20 and
G2
• Marginalisation of
the old G8 group of
OECD countries
• Rise of the much
broader G20 – which
includes China, India
and Brazil.
• Some commentators
have begun to talk of
the G2 – the ‘group’
of China and the
USA.
China’s carbon emissions
• China’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 170% 2000-2010
• 7700 million tonnes by 2009.
• Larger than the USA’s 5400 million tonnes.
• This means action on climate change, without including China, is
increasingly pointless.
How has China risen?
1. Read the boxes on p161 Oxford to make a timeline detailing China’s rise (Key
moments).
2. Produce a detailed mind map or table as below to show the effects of China’s rise
– both positive and negative in terms of social, economic and environmental
impacts
Positive impact
Economic
Social
Environmental
1. Read Oxford p158-163
Negative impact
The Tiger awakes
India has a number of assets in
favour :
• huge population of potential
consumers.
• youthful population, with no
signs of ageing (as in China)
• Key hi-tech industries such
as IT development and
software, space research and
nuclear research
• educated, English speaking
workforce
• Innovative global companies
such as Tata Motors, Wipro
and Infosys
The downsides for India
are:
• Creaking infrastructure
which lacks investment;
makes transport costly
and difficult.
• Bureaucracy and red
tape - stifles innovation
and setting up
businesses
• Lack on its own
resources, especially
energy resources
• Poverty: 80% of Indian’s
live on less than $2 per
day – these people are a
long way from becoming
‘consumers’
World Bank
Ease of doing Business
index, 2010
Singapore
Hong Kong (China)
UK
USA
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Germany
Mexico
China
Brazil
India
Chad
World Rank
1
2
4
5
11
16
22
35
79
127
139
183
Forward together?
• China /India bilateral trade
has grown from very small
beginnings
• China wants India’s textiles,
iron ore and some other
products such as
pharmaceuticals.
• India needs goods in the form
of gadgets, electronics, farm
equipment etc from China.
• Increasingly technology
products made in China were
actually designed and software
engineered in India
(Bangalore), and are serviced
and supported in India.
• Mutually beneficial trade
• Sectors don’t directly compete
• Internal market of 2.5 billion people!
Problems
at
home…..
• However the
future may not
be smooth.
• Unexpected
events happen.
• Few people
predicted the
rapid collapse of
the USSR and
the end of the
Cold War in
1989-1991.
• The Asian
BRICS all have
potentially
distracting and
destabilising
situations on
their doorstep:
Edging towards a multi-polar
world…..
• Recent economic and political events have nudged a multi-polar
world a little closer:
China’s economic expansion
The global recession
in Africa
2007-2009
•Shows it has ambitions
•declining GDP in Europe
outside Asia
and North America
•6-8% growth in China and
India
China buying American
government debt
•making the USA reliant on
China’s cash pile (a result
of its huge trade surplus).
China’s global profile
•raised by the 2008
Beijing Olympics
•the 2010 Shanghai Expo
•role in the Copenhagen
climate talks.
China v India?
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Improve Governance
Weak institutions and intra-state squabbling contrast with
China’s centralised ‘can do’ administration
Raise Basic Educational
HE tends to be OK, but millions get the most basic, or no,
Achievement
education; illiteracy is far too high - female literacy is barely 50%
Increase Quality and
2.5 million graduates per year, but from just over 300
Quantity of Universities
Universities serving a 1 billion + population, which is growing
and young.
Control Inflation
Tends to be variable and frequently spikes at over 8%, which
undermines economic growth.
Reduce debt
India still faces debts of over 70% of GDP which is too high
Liberalise Financial Markets India has been much slower than China to open up its markets
to global trade, as has a small inefficient financial sector
Increase Trade With
Trade with the US is about 10% of China’s trade with the US –
Neighbours
India only accounts for 2% of world trade.
Increase Agricultural
60% of employment but only 1% of economic growth; if this
Productivity
sector does not modernise India faces a future crisis.
Improve Infrastructure
Major stumbling block to future growth in rapidly urbanising
country; road, rail, port, energy and water infrastructure all poor.
Improve Environmental
Currently not a priority, and public awareness is very low but
Quality
problems such as sewage and urban air quality are critical.
This is information about how India compares to China
Write a series of paragraphs explaining which country is more likely to
become the next superpower and why.
Testing theories on Superpowers
Dependency
World systems
Modernisation
How far do real emerging superpowers
actually fit into each theory – p 111 handout
India
China
Modernisation
Dependency
World
systems
How far do real emerging superpowers
actually fit into each theory
What is the current balance between emerging superpowers?
1) Outline the key differences between these two rising superpowers
2) How can we apply modernisation theory to them? What stage of Rostow’s
model might they be?
3) Do any of the two apply as a ‘peripheral developing country’ according to
dependency theory? Explain.
4) Using your knowledge of World Systems Theory, how can the rise of
China and India be explained?
Homework:
To produce a presentation of your ideas about the nature of world super power
in 50 years time using your knowledge of superpowers and the theories
underpinning them.
Key words which must be used:
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Dependency theory
Wallersteins World systems theory
Rostows take off model of economic growth
Pacific geography
Cumulative causation
Kondratiev waves
Multi-polar
North-south divide
BRICs
Core and periphery
Impacts on resources
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Economic development in last 20 years of
BRICS newcomers and the expansion of EU
to 27 nations, has raised a number of
concerns
Accelerating rise in demand for energy and
other resources
Impact on the environment from Global
warming to localised river pollution
Uneven distribution of the benefits of
economic growth, with growing inequality
between urban rich and rural poor.
Global implications – the
environment and resources
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China imports 3% of its coal = 20% of sea-borne world coal trade.
China consumes 50% of the world’s cement
China uses 30% of steel and 25% aluminum
Adds 100GW electricity generating capacity per year
Next 30 years, needs to build 1 large nuclear power plant every
fortnight to meet demand
Greenhouse gas emission increases from China by 2030 will be equal to
the increases from the rest of the industrialized world:
India’s emissions are likely to rise by 70-80% over the same period.
If the Chinese consumed paper at the same per capita rate as the
USA, demand would exceed the entire supply of paper today.
Nutrition transition and
resource demand
Impact of resources
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Energy
Rapid rise in oil prices in 2007 and 2008- outcome
of rising demand and stagnating supply
Oil may be being pumped out of the ground quicker
than new reserves can be found
Key concern is the path India and China take as
they continue to grow economically and gain powercontinue at same rate as have done since 1990s
they will reach GDP levels similar to those of EU
and USA
Impact of resources
Environment
• China and India’s ecological footprints may
be similar to those of the EU and USA by
2040 = pressure on water, energy and land
resources
Shifting power and emerging
power.
• Implications of shifting power for older
core regions
• In pairs, or threes produce a mind map to
identify the issues linked to the rise of the
new superpowers and their impacts on the
older core regions. Think about – economic,
cultural, political issues.