Transcript South Africa

Emerging Powers in
Comparative Perspective
Aniello Vidigal
Daniel del Gelmo
Marcos Hernan
Maxime Ndecky
South Africa as an emerging power: int’l insertion and rising strategy
Foreign policy and systemic impact of SA’s rise
Int’l constraints
Domestic situation and domestic constraints
Policy recommendation
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South Africa, an Emerging Power
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Not an original BRICS member, admitted only on 2010
Not-exactly an purely economic choice for BRICS
G20 membership
UNSC seat at 2007-8 and 2011-12
Regional political leader of Africa
2010 Africa’s biggest GDP (surpassed by Nigeria)
South Africa, an Emerging Power
• Foreign policy acting towards furthering:
– National interest
– Regional leadership and representative
– Global player(increase participation on the global
governance system)
South Africa as a Regional Power
• SA puts itself as a regional leader as well as a
defender of African continent interests
– “South Africa’s invitation to join BRICS takes
cognisance of our country’s contribution to shaping
the socio-economic regeneration of Africa, as well as
our active involvement in peace, security and
reconstruction efforts on the continent” (Maite
Nkoana-Mashabane, SA’s Minister of International
Relations and Cooperation)
South Africa as a Regional Power
• SA takes great diplomatic and military efforts
on stabilising the African continent;
• SA (together with Nigeria) leading position on
reconstructing and fostering the African int’l
institutions e.g. AU, NEPAD, SADC, SACU, AfDB
etc
• “a VISION and STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK for
Africa’s renewal”
• Four main areas of work
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Skills and employment of youth
Industrialisation, Science, Technology and Innovation
Regional Integration, Infrastructure and Trade
Natural Resources Governance and Food Security
NEPAD
Objectives
a) To eradicate poverty;
b) To place African countries, both individually and
collectively, on a path of sustainable growth and
development;
c) To halt the marginalisation of Africa in the globalisation
process and enhance its full and beneficial integration into
the global economy;
d) To accelerate the empowerment of women
NEPAD
NEPAD
• “Five task teams were established to urgently identify and prepare
specific implementable projects and programmes. In terms of
working arrangements,
• South Africa is to coordinate the Peace, Security, Democracy and
Political Governance Initiative;
• Nigeria the Economic and Corporate Governance/Banking and
Financial Standards/Capital Flows Initiatives;
• Egypt the Market Access and Agriculture Initiatives;
• Algeria the Human Resources Development Initiative; and
• Senegal the Infrastructure Initiative.” (Department of International
Relations and Cooperation of SA)
South Africa as a Regional Power
• SA also promotes itself as a bridge between
the other BRICS and the African continent
– “By inviting South Africa as a full member, the
BRIC countries sought to send a signal to African
leaders in general that today’s emerging powers
sought to engage with Africa differently than the
West had done in the past.” (Stuenkel, p. 50)
South Africa as a Global Player
• Main field of action is G20 and BRICS;
• Also takes efforts at world forums to further
the African agenda, mainly Human Rights and
the development of African continent
South Africa as a Global Player
• Willingness to have more space on global
governance, with support on reforms of int’l
institutions
– “We share with our BRICS partners the imperative
need for the reform of global decision-making
structures, in order to improve global governance. We
single out, in particular, the comprehensive reform of
the UN and international financial institutions.” (Jacob
Zuma at New Delhi BRICS summit 2012)
Power dimensions
• Regionally: hard
power
• Global level:
structural power
Military
Economic
Power
Cultural
Structural
(Norms)
Impact of Rising and Foreign policy
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Understanding South Africa’s foreign policy.
SA’s behavior in international view.
2nd generation Studies
South Africa seen as a middle Power
South African Foreign seen as a Pivotal State
and acted like it.
South Africa’s Foreign policy 19942008
• South Africa as ANC Leader
• Prioritization and engagement of South Africa
in Africa.
• South Africa as a Regional Power
Regional Power
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“Every hegemon is a pivotal state. But it has to be more. Hegemons not only aspire
to leadership, and are not only endowed with military, economic, and other
resources. They also have * necessarily * a political and socio-economic vision of
their transnational environments, and a political willingness to implement such
vision. If that vision is one of security, stability, and development, as is often the
case, then the hegemon undertakes to underwrite the implementation of these
goals. Again, that does not mean that a hegemon does not have partners in this
enterprise. It often does, but it takes responsibility in the last instance to ensure
that the features of its vision are operationalised in the region it sees as its sphere
of influence. More importantly, a hegemon should be prepared to compromise its
own dominance in respect of market share, balance of trade, and military
overlordship should that be in the interests of fulfilling this vision’’
Domestic situation and domestic
constraints
Socioeconomics indicators
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GDP: 350,1 billion dollars in 2014 (25°)
GDP per capta: 6,8 thousand
Upper middle income acording to World Bank
GINI indicator: 63,4
“The domestic economy is characterised by a
well-developed tertiary sector, which accounted
for approximately 69% of the country’s GDP in
2012, up from 60% in 1994.” (idc report, pag 4)
GDP
GDP growth
Socioeconomics indicators
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Population: 54 million people
Rising black middle class
Brain drain
25% unemployed
5 million illegal immigrants
11 official languages (most common are africaner and english)
High rates of criminality.
2 199 871 not born in AS (censos 2011)
5 million ilegal immigrants (acordingto NY Times)
Infrastructure
• well-developed financial, legal, communications and
transport sectors, as well as an open trade policy and a
comparatively strong domestic market.
• The country is acknowledged for its resilient and stable
banking sector.
• However, there are some obstacles, including rigid
labour policies that diminish growth prospects.
Infrastructure
• However, the country has gone through a
series of blackouts in 2007
• The crisis was solutioned partially
• There is a small gap between energy demand
and energy capacity.
Imports and exports
International Constraints
Geographic Constraints
Underdevelopment: 34 out of 49
Political Instability: 32 conflicts
-> death and refugees
1000 Chinese companies
Poor relations in the continent
International Constraints
Historical constraints
Political inexperience of leaders
Changes on foreign policy(south-south and USA)
30 diplomatic representations -> 160 after apartheid.
Difficult access to International Organisations
International Constraints
Social constraints
Lesotho Crisis: showed how military forces had a lot of problems.
- > racism
- > insubordination
International Constraints
• Economic Constraints
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2% of international commerce
Low aggregated value of goods
Poor diversification: oil and gas (75%) and natural resources
Dependence on western and Chinese capital
Underdeveloped financial markets
2009: credit crisis
International Constraints
• Inequality and balance of power
• Nigeria and SA (60% of Africa’s GDP)
• Southern Africa development community:
33% of the population
• Islamic Development Bank
Relations between CHINA-SA
Positive
Negative
Policy Recommendations
• SA should take more actions towards
achieving hegēmonia , focusing itself on being
truly the emerging power engaged with
African development, instead of trying to be
just the African hegemon.
Thanks
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thank you [English]
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dankie [Afrikaans]
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ngiyathokoza [isiNdebele]
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enkosi [isiXhosa]
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ngiyabonga [isiZulu]
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ke a leboga [Sepedi]
ke a leboha [Sesotho]
ke a leboga [Setswana]
ngiyabonga [siSwati]
ndi a livhuha [Tshivenda]
ndza Khensa [Xitsonga]