Transcript IST Tonic Rennes presentation

IST/TONIC
4th Techno-Economics Workshop
Rennes 14th _ 15 th May 2002
Beyond third generation wireless communications
The European market
Business Case modelling
giovanni.gasbarrone @tin.it
Business Life:
Wireless access wherever You need...
Hotel.
Home.. Car..
Airport..
Office.. Train..
Wireless Market Positioning
Market
Penetration
Business
Consumer
Wireless coverage
–W
Wireless market evolution
 Creation of the `personal area network’ PAN, where all the
PDAs, phones, MP3 players, PC and other devices carried
by a user will be able to intercommunicate without wires.
 non human users (machine and intelligent equipments) will
gain increasing market share according new social &
economic behaviour .
 The concept of the personal area network has been adopted
by the IEEE 802.15 committee, which is looking at
standardisation in this area and the possible harmonisation
of Bluetooth with the IEEE family of WLAN standards.
Wireless services
–Wireless vs Wireline Applications
European Wireless Market Development
E-Commerce
video streaming
Advertising
Re-inventing
Mobile IP
Business
models
4G wave
Developing
wireless
Web sites
Building new mobile Vision
2002
Building
MultiSphere
Vision
2005
3G to 4G migration
 A smooth evolution is envisaged from 3rd mobile
generation to 4th G mobile wave.
 New 4G applications and services will be available
in the medium term
–
–
–
–
–
–
multimedia interactive financial services
On-demand-movies
mobile games and entertainment
Gambling
Mobile Advertising
multimedia mobile e-commerce
Why we need wireless market analysis tools
 A fundamental issue is to think long term scenarios and to
provide true market projections for the wireless next
generation wave.
 To this purpose we have to create specific tools and
business models with a particular stress on the economics
and revenues drivers
 The use of simulators will facilitate the understanding
of the initial situation and its possible evolutions, as well
the identification of the future economical potentialities
Why we need wireless market analysis tools
 Consultants predicts major trends in mobile markets
(e.g. they forecast mobile data growth and decreasing
voice revenues ).
 Available analysis provide us with medium term forecasts
covering wireless growth until 2005.
 Forecasts are based on past experience and trends
estimation.
 Beyond 2005, rough estimations are available
WE Mobile Data Users
300
Users (mio)
250
200
UMTS
GPRS
150
HSCSD
Circuit-switched
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
–IDC 2002
2005
2006
The licensing of UMTS networks in Western
Europe is largely done ...
Nov
2000
?
March
2000
Dec
2000
Sept
2001
April
2000
July
2000
March
2001 ?
September
2002?
Dec
2000
March
1999
Dec
2000
Aug
2000
Nov
2000
Oct
2000
July
2001
4G time window
4G: Multimedia---->
<--3G: Data--------->
<----------2G: Digital -------->
<---------------1G: Analog----------------->
1980 1985 1990 1995 2001
2005
4G Business model rationale
Topics of Discussion
 Business Model: start-up issues
Market Assumptions
Main drivers
 Model Definition for the Business Case:
Reference Market: Mobile & Internet,
Beyond 3rd generation: market sizing
Forecasting modelling: Methodologies
Business Plan
Model structure & implementation
European markets: main outputs
4G Business model rationale
 The 4G-business case relies on a wide range of market
assumptions into the model as well as other analysis that
are used to assist us in forecasting process
 4G business model is based on a number of modifications
and extension to 3rd mobile generation marketing planning
Total mobile market size
Wlan & 3G Market share
volumes & revenues
Internet mobile market size
Customers
usage & segmentation
Wireless next generation
market sizing
Wireless next generation
Business model definition
Wireless e-commerce
Gambling
Financial services
Wireless Lan access
Mobile Advertising & Trading
Overview of 4G business case
 The business model covers a wide range of areas
including:
– Demographic and macroeconomic forecast analysis in
Europe (various economic and social factors including
population composition & GDP/PPI)
– Mobile customers traffic profile forecasts (based on
statistics evaluation) (Voice and data ARPU)
– Mobile E- Commerce (B to B & B to C)
– Mobile games, gambling and entertainment
– On-demand movies
– Wholesale wireless services
– Mobile Advertising & Trading
Overview of 4th mobile generation
Market assumptions
4G customers base estimation
 the customer base growth follows 3G wave; non human
users will gain increasing market share according new
social & economic behaviour
 A learning process from the customers' side is highlighted
and a consequent market boost is forecasted
 Higher confidence gained by customers and better
perception of the technology increase volume traffic
and size of e-commerce transactions
Overview of 4th mobile generation
Market assumptions
Mobile advertising
 Mobile advertising and information entertainment services
will convergence more and more .
 in our business model this will reflects an increasing
traffic to web sites and provide benefit to mobile operators
trough IP services revenues
 direct advertising revenues will be generated in a
significant size in the medium term
Overview of 4th mobile generation
Market assumptions
Mobile e-commerce
 The growth of mobile e-commerce in Europe is an average
value measured according to forecasts of Internet & mobile
CAGR in European countries
 The forecast of overall mobile e-commerce users is taken
as due proportion of mobile data users forecast available
from statistical different sources, and managed by specific
forecasting routine software
Overview of 4th mobile generation
Market assumptions
Revenues forecast: the current approach
 We forecast mobile revenues by estimating the average
revenue per subscriber in western European countries, and
then multiply that estimation by the number of subscribers.
 Revenue per subscriber takes account of all revenues lines
(e-commerce, gambling, advertising & trading and other
value-added services).
Overview of 4th mobile generation
Market assumptions
Revenues growth estimation
 Pricing reduction and volume increase will follow the
basic demand elasticity laws
 Higher customers' base will reflect an additional increase
in volumes and consequent additional revenues.
Revenues growth estimation
Growth
Revenues
dq/q
dp/p
hxy =
dqx/qx
dpy/py
Market Share
Demand
h=
QN
Demand elasticity
p
Pricing
Discount
pN/pD
27
Business model implementation
first concepts
 Model structure
 System implementation
 European market: preliminary results
Wireless next generation
Market forecasting tool
22-feb-02
WIRELESS NEXT GENERATION
–
Restart System
Control
s
Run
–Indicators & Total Market Sizing
1. Country
2. Indicators Index
3. Pricing assumptions
4. Price forecasts
5.Customer and Usage
–Segmentation
–Opportunity Definition & Model Adjustments
8. Business model definition
Market shares
–
Save System (As)
Market sizings
Save System
9. Ip voice
10. Wireless services
View Indicators
11. W Lan
12. On-demand-movies
13. VAS
14. Mobile E Commerce
–Outputs
View Executive Summary
Print Executive Summary
Print Indicators
6. Voice traffic Forecast
15. Financial mobile services revenues
17. Mobile Advertising revenues
Print projections charts
7. Roaming & Interconnection
18. Total Market Revenues Share
Notes Screen
Wireless next generation
Market forecasting tool
Wireless next generation
Market forecasting tool
GDP/C ap ita Fo r e cas te r
1985
1986
1987
M e th o d o f fo r e cas t
M e th o d s
In p u ts
Ca lc u la tio n
A
g ro wt h ra t e in G D P p e r c a p
lin e a rly in te rp o la te s b e tw e e n in p u t g ro w th ra te s
B
g ro wt h ra t e in G D P p e r c a p
fixe d g ro w th ra te u p to n e xt in p u t g ro w th ra te
C
g ro wt h ra t e in G D P p e r c a p
g ro w th ra te e q u a l to h is to ric g ro w th ra te (u s e r in p u t fo r p e rio d o f h is to ric d a ta u s e d )
D
GDP pe r c a p
fixe d in c re a s e in GD P p e r c a p ita e a c h y e a r
E
GDP pe r c a p
c o n s ta n t g ro w th ra te b e tw e e n in p u t y e a rs
F
E I U p r o je c t io n ( if a v a ila ble )
fixe d in c re a s e in GD P p e r c a p ita e a c h y e a r
G
E I U p r o je c t io n ( if a v a ila ble )
c o n s ta n t g ro w th ra te b e tw e e n in p u t y e a rs
M e th o d ch o s e n
F
6
Ad ju s t in p u ts
Exis tin g d ata
1995
1996
1997
g ro w th
0,0%
39,3%
20,7%
9 .4 6 2
1 3 .1 7 7
1 5 .9 0 4
39,3%
20,7%
9 .4 6 2
1 3 .1 7 7
1 5 .9 0 4
GD P p e r c a p d a ta a v a ila b le
Fo r e cas t ch o s e n
g ro w th
GD P p e r c a p d a ta c h o s e n
O ve rrid e
fig u re s a b o ve
P o p u la tio n
Ca lc u la te d GD P
R e tu rn to to p
5 5 .2 8 4 .0 0 0
5 5 .5 4 7 .0 0 0
5 5 .8 2 4 .0 0 0
5 2 3 .1 0 9 .9 9 0 .4 0 0
7 3 1 .9 2 2 .6 2 8 .6 0 8
8 8 7 .8 1 4 .2 9 1 .4 5 6
Wireless next generation
–39
–38
Market forecasting tool
Wireless Market in Euro
–Country
Luxemburg
–Choice
–2001
–2002
–2003
–Original data
–000
–0
–0
–Last used Data
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–Average
–% of original
–100
–% of shadow
–100%
–0%
–New data
–1–Output values
–Forecast
–W Lan Market as % 3G
Back to Index
–
Benchmarks
Download
Wireless
figures to model
–0,00%
–Download wireless
–E-Commerce figures to
–project shadow
–0,00%
–0,00%
–Wireless
Business model outputs
preliminary results
Euopean wireless and mobile market
Euro mlns
–180.000
Euro mlns
–160.000
–140.000
–120.000
–100.000
–80.000
–60.000
–40.000
–20.000
–0
4G
3G
2G+