Transcript HumanPopulationReview4

Applying Population Ecology:
The Human Population
Test Review 4
Applying the principles of population dynamics and
sustainability to the growth of the human population
Current Population Trends
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World population = 6.4 billion (6,400,000) in 2004
Doubled since 1963 = 3.2 billion
In 2050 could be 7.2 – 10.6 billion
Amplifies all environmental problems
Largest increase expected in developing countries
(approximately 97%)
• Decreasing in some developed countries
• Rate actually decreased between 1963-2004, but the
population has still doubled from 3.2 –6.4 billion
Current Population Trends
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World population = 6.4 billion (6,400,000) in 2004
Doubled since 1963 = 3.2 billion
In 2050 could be 7.2 – 10.6 billion
Amplifies all environmental problems
Largest increase expected in what type of??
countries (approximately 97%)
• Decreasing in some countries
• Rate actually decreased between 1963-2004, but the
population has still doubled from 3.2 –6.4 billion
Rate = 80 million new people/year
+ New York City every month
+ Germany every year
+ United States every 3.7 years
Washington State Population
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Population projections
For the next 20 years
Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population change = write out the formula
Crude birth rate = births per 1000 people in
population per year
Crude death rate = deaths per 1000 people in
population per year
Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population change = (Births + Immigration) –
(Deaths + Emigration)
Crude birth rate = births per 1000 people in
population per year
Crude death rate = deaths per 1000 people in
population per year
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - Number of children
a woman has during her lifetime, averaged
for population.
• same as biotic potential (r)
• Replacement Level Fertility - Number of
children needed to replace everyone in the
population.
• Varies between regions
• 2.1 with low infant mortality
• 2.5 with high infant mortality
• Zero Population Growth - Birth rate equals
death rate.
Sex Ratio - Age Distribution
• Sex Ratio- Relative number of males and
females in a population
• Age Distribution - Number of individuals of
each age in a population
• Together they tell how a population will grow
Population Age Structure
Developing Countries Developed
Countries
Which is Nigeria? Greece? Sweden? US?
Growth is determined by teenagers – the population wave of
the future. 30% of pop’n <15 years = 1.9 billion more into
reproductive years.
Population Age Structure
Developing Countries Developed
Countries
Growth is determined by teenagers – the population wave of
the future. 30% of pop’n <15 years = 1.9 billion more into
reproductive years.
Population Age Structure
Developing Countries Developed
Countries
What type of growth for each?
Growth is determined by teenagers – the population wave of
the future. 30% of pop’n <15 years = 1.9 billion more into
reproductive years.
Population Trend Comparisons
Developed Countries
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High or Low? infant mortality rate
Life expectancy ?? years
Total fertility rate = ??
??% population <15
12% population >65
Per capita GDP = $????
Developing Countries
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High or low? infant mortality rate
Life expectancy /?? ears
Total fertility rate = ??
??% population <15
3% population >65
Per capita GDP = $????
Population Trend Comparisons
Developed Countries
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Low infant mortality rate
Life expectancy 77 years
Total fertility rate = 2.0
21% population <15
12% population >65
Per capita GDP = $36,110
Developing Countries
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High infant mortality rate
Life expectancy 52 years
Total fertility rate = 5.7
44% population <15
3% population >65
Per capita GDP = $800
Human Population Issue
• Several factors determine the impact of a society
on natural resources.
• Population size
• Population density
• Degree of technological development
• Demography - Study of populations and their
characteristics.
• Larger ecological footprint in U.S. than in
developing countries. Why?
Environmental Impact
Environmental Impact
The fertility rates
have significantly
fallen since 1950.
Factors Affecting Birth Rates & TFR
• NaME 5
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total
Fertility Rates
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Children in Labor Force
Cost of raising and educating children
Availability of pension systems
Urbanization
Education and employment for women
Infant mortality rate
Average marrying age
Abortion
Availability of birth control
Major social factor determining family size is
the role of women in society.
• Early marriages foster high fertility rates.
• Lack of education opportunities for women
reduces their options.
• When level of education increases, fertility
rates fall.
• The most important factor is the ability of
women to control the size of their family.
• Access to birth control is key.
United States Population Picture
• US population has a post-war baby boom
period, significantly affecting pop. trends.
• 20 yr period following WWII
• By 2030, 20% of US pop will be over
65
U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004
U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004
US Immigration rates
Immigration accounts for 41% of pop’n growth in the U.S.
Should we have tougher immigration laws to help preserve our
natural resources?
Demographic Transition
As countries become industrialized, death rates, then birth
rates decline.
Case Study: Slowing Population Growth
what country does this describe?
• Generally disappointing results
• 1952 – 400 million
• 2004 – 1.2 billion
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Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support
Culture – women believe you need children to
work, care for when they are old.
Case Study: Slowing Population Growth
in India
• Generally disappointing results
• 1952 – 400 million
• 2004 – 1.2 billion
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Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support
Culture – Indian women believe you need children
to work, care for when they are old.
Case Study: Slowing Population Growth
what country does this describe?
• Economic incentives (food, large pensions, better
housing, salary bonuses, free schooling)
• Free medical care
• Free sterilization
• Locally administered
• Very intrusive and coercive
• Problem with parents selecting for males
• Fertility rate decreased from 5.7 in 1972 to 1.7 in
2004.
Case Study: Slowing Population Growth
in China
• Economic incentives (food, large pensions, better
housing, salary bonuses, free schooling)
• Free medical care
• Free sterilization
• Locally administered
• Very intrusive and coercive
• Problem with parents selecting for males
• Fertility rate decreased from 5.7 in 1972 to 1.7 in
2004.
Cutting Global Population Growth
• Name 3
Cutting Global Population Growth
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Family planning
Improve health care
Elevate the status of women
Increase education
Involve men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Sustainability