Transcript The Road to TPP: Political and Economic Challenges facing Taiwan

Hsueh-Hong(Constance)Wang
Visiting Scholar
Sigur Center for Asian Studies
Elliott School of International Studies
The George Washington University
Thursday, December 5, 2013
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Stands for Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
12 negotiation partners across Asia-Pacific
region
Originated from P-4:
Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Brunei(2006)
US, Australia, Peru, Vietnam(2008)
Malaysia(2010)
Mexico, Canada(2012)
Japan(2013)
Taiwan(?)
Current TPP members
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We are delighted to have achieved this
milestone in our common vision to establish
a comprehensive, next generation regional
agreement that liberalizes trade and
investment and addresses new and traditional
trade issues and 21st-century challenges.
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29 chapters/similar structure to recent US
FTAs:
Market access in goods and services
Rules: government procurement, foreign
investment, technical barriers to trade, trade
remedies, SPS measures, IPRs, environmental
protection, labor..
Cross-cutting issues: regulatory coherence,
competitiveness, business facilitation, small
and medium-sized companies, SOEs..
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Aiming to conclude the negotiation by the
end of 2013
is one of the most significant trade blocs
globally
TPP % of world GDP: 39.0%
(2012)(US$28,136.0 billion )
TPP % of world population: 11.3%
(2012)(792.8 million)
TPP % of world trade: 25.8% (2012)
US plays a leading role:
-revitalizing its economy
TPP members
-represent a $1.7 trillion trading
relationship for the US
-Account for 45% of US exports
If concluded: further expand its export market
and support growth of its economy
TPP also serves several strategic goals for US
-the economic element of its “rebalancing
toward Asia”
-affirms its engagement in the region
-shape the region’s trade and investment
rules and norms
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Taiwan is a major trading nation which
exports of goods and services accounts for
74% of its GDP
Five of Taiwan’s top ten export destinations
are TPP parties-40.10% of Taiwan’s total trade
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Expand market access
as an external driver of domestic economic
reform
Diversify its market which is overly dependent
on China
a means to counter South Korea's proactive
free trade agreement strategy
Strengths
Geopolitical
importance
-situated in the first chain of islands
-Taiwan Strait serves as an indispensable
route to all Asian countries
Sound economic performance
-27th largest economy with annual
GDP of 747 billion and the 7th
largest in Asia
-close business ties with current TPP
parties- Five of top ten export destinations
are TPP parties, representing 40.1% of
Taiwan’s total trade
business sector known for its
competitiveness in ICT manufacturing
-an integral part the global supply chain,
Include Taiwan in TPP would strengthens and
further enables the production networks
-With ECFA in place, TPP member can use
Taiwan as a gateway to the Greater China
market
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-structural economic problems
-disruptive domestic politics
-the leader is lack of political capital to invest
in promoting TPP
-sectoral interest over national interest as a
whole
China factor
 Limited FTAs
 The future of TPP
 standing trade issues with TPP parties
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-TPP is open to all APEC economies
-ANZTEC and ASTEP in place may help pave the
way to TPP
-Japan expresses its support for Taiwan’s bid
-key members in the US Congress voice their
support
-China expresses its interest in joining TPP
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Rejuvenate the bilateral economic ties
Taiwan shares the common values of freedom,
democracy, rule of law and market-oriented
economy
can fulfill its commitment of “the US would
remain committed to a strong relationship with
Taiwan, an important security and economic
partner”
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Taiwan would be a missing link
in TPP , US should go beyond the
economic façade and weigh in on the
political calculation
Domestically-need desicive leadership and
skill
Make joining TPP a more urgent priority
-several actions need to be taken:
 roll out economic roadmap (including tackle
thorny trade issues)
 Better Communicating with stakeholders
 Build up consensus among parties
Ratify the Cross-Strait Service Pact-send a
signal to TPP partners that Taiwan is ready
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Trumpet the causeAnnounce its will to join right after TPP is
concluded-among the first of late comers
With US
-convince the US it’s in its interest for Taiwan to
join TPP and US should facilitate it.
With Other TPP members:
-Kick off bilateral consultationsconfidence-building measures
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TPP is vital for Taiwan to keep up pace with
its regional competitors by expanding its
market beyond dependence on China
It’s in the US interest to help Taiwan to join.
US should demonstrate its political
determination to “take on the cause”.
Taiwan need to restore TPP members’
confidence by tackling standing trade issues.
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It takes efforts from both Taiwan and US to
workAs soon as Taiwan signals its determination,
US should respond reciprocally in a timely
fashion to facilitate Taiwan’s accession
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Cause baby,
There ain't no mountain high enough
Ain't no valley low enough
Ain't no river wide enough
To keep me from getting to you
Remember the day
I set you free
I told you
You could always count on me
From that day on I made a vow
I'll be there when you want me
Some way,some how
Thank you!