Transcript Multilateral Development Banks

What is a Multilateral
Development Bank?
S. Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
Canada Business Opportunities Seminar
Halifax – Montreal – Calgary – Saskatoon
September 2015
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Multilateral Development Banks
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Multilateral Development Banks
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The Asian Development Bank
How We are Different
• Infrastructure – 85% of investments are in energy,
water, transport, urban
• Regional Cooperation – Central Asia, Greater Mekong
Subregion, South Asia, etc.
• Specific Focus on the Pacific Islands
Our Challenge
• Rapidly Changing Region – By 2030, all of the region will
be middle income, except for AFG, NEP, and
• Not just about financing – Also about knowledge and
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Partnership
Why Asia?
S. Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
Canada Business Opportunities Seminar
Halifax – Montreal – Calgary – Saskatoon
September 2015
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Why Asia?
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Economic Outlook: Developing
Asia extends steady growth…
GDP growth (%)
10
8
10-year average: 7.6
5-year average: 7.1
6
4
9.3
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.3
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2
0
2010
2011
f: forecast
Asian Development
Outlook 2015 7
…contributing the most to global growth
Percentage contributions to global GDP growth
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Global cumulative GDP growth, 2009–2014 = 21.4%, annual growth=4.0%
31.2
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11.8
7.9
9.6
ASEAN
US
1.8
1.6
Japan
Euro area
1.4
3.7
Japan
Euro area
0
PRC
40
31.9
India
Global GDP growth, 2015 = 3.6%
15.2
20
8.0
14.4
0
PRC
India
ASEAN
US
 Asia accounts for about 60% of global growth;
Asian Development
still fastest-growing region
Outlook 2015 8
High overall growth,
but divergence across countries
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2014
2015f
2016f
5-year ave.
10-year ave.
10
8
6
4
2
0
East Asia
f: forecast
South Asia Southeast Central Asia The Pacific
Asia
Asian Development
Outlook 2015 9
What Does All This Mean
Re-emergence of Asia
Asia’s Share of Global GDP, 1700-2010
• Asia accounted for about 60%
of world economy before
Industrial Revolution
• In the following two centuries,
Asia’s share declined to 15%
• Asia’s share today is 28%
Asian Growth Rates
12.0%
GDP Growth Rate
10.0%
8.0%
Japan
6.0%
NIC's
4.0%
China & India
2.0%
0.0%
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2010
• Asia began to re-emerge after
1950, spurred first by Japan, then
NICs
• Starting in 1980s, first PRC then
India, Indonesia and Viet Nam,
gave further boost
The Asian Century
Asian Century Scenario
Middle East &
North Africa,
3%
Rest of World,
2%
Sub Saharan
Africa, 2%
Middle Income Trap Scenario
Middle East &
North Africa, 5%
Rest of World, 2%
Sub Saharan
Africa, 4%
Asia; 31%
Europe, 18%
Europe, 28%
Asia; 52%
North America;
21%
Latin America
& Caribbean;
10%
North
America; 13%
Asian GDP: $174 trillion
Asian GDP per capita: $40,800
Latin America &
Caribbean, 9%
Asian GDP: $65 trillion
Asian GDP per capita: $20,600
Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC,
Republic of Korea, and Thailand - projected to account for 90% of
Asia’s growth between 2010 and 2050
Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented
Increase in Urban Population (million)
Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)
1200
1000
1.06 billion
1 billion
800
600
400
200
0
1980-2010
2010-2040
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Indonesia
India
China, People's Rep. of
Rest of Asia & Pacific
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
Unique feature 1: very fast speed
Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate
Latin America and
Caribbean
210 years
10%
North America
105 years
9%
Europe
49%
51%
150 years
12%
51%
Asia and the Pacific
95 years
11%
Viet Nam
12%
Indonesia
12%
Lao PDR
90 years
65 years
10%
Bhutan
10%
China, People's Rep. of
11%
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
1925
51%
1950
54%
60 years
52%
55 years
61 years
1975
50%
2000
51%
51%
2025
2050
Unique feature 2: highest densities in
the world…
Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007
35000
Asia & the Pacific (17/25)
Africa
Europe
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Source: www.citymayors.com
São Paulo
Hyderabad
Shenyang
Baghdad
Cairo
Ho Chi Minh City
Bangalore
Tianjin
Jakarta
Tehran
Manila
Kinshasa
Delhi
Beijing
Lima
Shanghai
Bogota
Chennai
Taipei,China
Seoul/Incheon
Shenzhen
Lagos
Karachi
Kolkata
0
Mumbai
Density (person/m2)
30000
Unique feature 3: many megacities
Megacities, 2010
ASIA: 12/23
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from
(10 million) to
(39 million). The circles do not reflect the
physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any
official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unique feature 4: low starting base
Level of Urbanization by Region (%)
100
90
Level of Urbanization (%)
80
67%
70
63%
60
52%
50
43%
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Unique feature 5: the largest cities are
likely to grow bigger
Urban Primacy (%, 2009)
Ratio of Population in Largest
Cities over Urban Population (%)
25
21
20
15
12
10
5
0
Asia
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
Non-Asia
… thus more and bigger megacities are
emerging
Megacities, 2025
ASIA: 21/37
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from
(10 million) to
(39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical
extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official
acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Asia’s financing requirements are huge
Source: ADB, 2009. Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia. Manila
Total of $8.3 trillion (2010–2020) or $750 billion/year
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In Asia the
infrastructure gap means
People without Access to:
Water and Sanitation
900 million people
Electricity
800 million people
Roads
1.2 billion people
Internet
80% of Asia
Source: Various reports compiled by ADB
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Deep Dive
Sustainable Infrastructure
S. Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
Canada Business Opportunities Seminar
Halifax – Montreal – Calgary – Saskatoon
September 2015
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Asia’s Urban Challenge
• Globally, 6.2 billion people in urban areas and 53% in
Asia by 2050
(World Urban Prospects, 2011 Revision)
• By 2050, 64.4% of population of Asia is in urban areas
• 23 megacities, 13 of which are in Asia
• Approximately 75% of GDP today comes from the
urban areas- urban areas of engines of growth in Asia
• 44 million people are added to city populations in
Asia every year
o equivalent to 120,000 people each day who require construction of
more than 20,000 new dwellings, 250 km of new roads and additional
infrastructure to supply more than 6000 liters of potable water
Increasing Energy Demand
(1990-2010-2035)
Non-Energy
Other
Transport
Industry
6000
5000
Mtoe
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2035
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Road to Nowhere
Beijing, 2010
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ADB’s Water Financing Program
2006-2020
• Rural water – rural water supply and sanitation; irrigation and
drainage
• Urban water – urban water supply, sanitation and wastewater
management
• Basin water – water resources development and management,
flood management, wetlands and watershed protection,
hydropower
Rural Water
Urban Water
Basin Water
How Does it Really Work?
S. Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
Canada Business Opportunities Seminar
Halifax – Montreal – Calgary – Saskatoon
September 2015
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ADB Business Opportunities
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ADB Business Opportunities
Almost all
ADB
projects rely
on
Consultants
and
Contractors
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7-Step Plan to Win ADB-Financed
Consulting Contracts
1. Collect relevant business intelligence
• Study Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) and Country
Operations Business Plans (COBP)
• Obtain information from procurement plans (and project
documents)
• Check ADB website for opportunities in the Consulting
Services Recruitment Notices (CSRN) section
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Build your brand name – Visit ADB
Express interest
Visit the country of the assignment and project site
Offer partnership to firms likely to be shortlisted
Prepare a responsive and strong technical proposal
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Do good work
Business Opportunities Fair and
ADB’s Project Pipeline
ADB’s yearly Business Opportunities Fair - How to
register
http://www.adb.org/news/events/6th-adb-businessopportunities-fair-2015
Background on the 2015 Business Opportunities Fair
including Project Pipelines across countries and sectors
http://adbprocurementforum.net/?page_id=2362
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Supplemental Slides
S. Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
Canada Business Opportunities Seminar
Halifax – Montreal – Calgary – Saskatoon
September 2015
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Vision
An Asia and Pacific
region free of poverty
Strategic Agenda
1. Inclusive Economic Growth
2. Environmentally Sustainable
3. Regional Integration
Core Areas of Operations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Infrastructure
Environment
Regional Cooperation and Integration
Finance Sector Development
Education
Other Areas of Operations
1. Health
2. Agriculture
3. Disaster and Emergency Assistance
ADB’s Services
to Foster Development Impacts
Technical Assistance and Knowledge Sharing
•
•
•
•
•
Project preparatory feasibility studies
Research and analytical work
Policy dialogue and advisory activities
Training and capacity building programs
Dissemination of best practices
Program and Project Financing
• Grants
• Low interest loan
• LIBOR based loan
Samuel Tumiwa
Deputy Representative
North America Representative Office
900 17th Street, N.W. Suite 900
Washington, DC 2006
202 728 1500
[email protected]
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