Transcript Central bank`s objectives and structure

Standard presentation format
1st quarter 2016
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure
 Real sector
 Monetary policy
 External sector
 Banking sector

Central bank’s objectives and tasks
STABILITY OF PRICES
 SUPPORTING THE GENERAL ECONOMIC
POLICIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, WITHOUT
PREJUDICE TO ITS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
 Management of the international reserves
 Issuing banknotes and coins
 Issuing and revoking licenses for banks and bank
supervision
 Regulating, improving and supervising the payment system
 Maintaining the stability of the country's financial system
 Performance of operations on behalf of the Republic of
Croatia, as provided by law

Independence of the CNB
Institutional: decisions are reached independently of other
institutions’ influence
 Functional: clear by defined goal and independence in choosing
the instruments and measures for achieving that goal
 Personal: guarantees the protection of the Governor and the
Council members from various kinds of pressure, precisely
determines the conditions for the appointment and removal
from office, and guards against the conflict of interest
 Financial: revenues and expenditures of the CNB are solely
determined by the nature of the monetary and exchange rate
policies

Structure of the CNB
Agenda


Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector







Aggregate demand and supply
Labour market
Prices
Fiscal policy
Monetary policy
External sector
Banking sector
Real GDP rates of change
Croatia
Peer countries
8
6
5
5.2
5.6
4.2
5.2
4.1
4.2
4.8
3.9
4
4
3.3
2.1
3
%
0
-0.3
-1.1
-2
-1.7
-4
-0.4
2.5
2
1.7
1.5
-2.2
1.1
1
-6
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015.
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology, after
2013 are provisional. More information can be found on
www.dzs.hr.
Source: CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-10
Hungary
0
-7.4
Czech R.
-8
2002
%
3.3
1.6
2
Average annual growth rate, 2003 – 2014
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Gross value added structure,
in current prices, 2015*
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Trade, hotels and restaurants
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activites
Real estate
Professional service activities
Public administration and defence
Other service activities
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015.
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Source: CBS.
Contributions of domestic
and net foreign demand to GDP growth
16
percentage points
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Domestic demand
Net foreign demand
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015.
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Source: CBS.
GDP
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-16
2002
-12
Unemployment rate
Croatia
ILO unemployment rate,
peer countries, 2014
20
25
18
16
20
14
15
%
%
12
10
10
8
6
5
4
2
* Registered unemployment rate – the first eleven months of 2015; ILO
unemployment rate – the first three quarters of 2015.
Note: Since the beginning of 2007 results from the Labour Force
Survey have been published in quarterly dynamics. ILO unemployment
rate refers to persons aged 15 years and over. Data on ILO
unemployment rate for period 2007 – 2014 have been harmonised with
the results of the Cenzus of Population, Households and Dwellings in
2011, and is not comparable with data for period 2000 – 2006.
Source: CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
2014
2015*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
ILO unemployment rate
0
Czech R.
Registered unemployment rate
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
Note: ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 – 74.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Nominal and real net wages
25
800
20
700
600
15
500
400
%
5
300
0
200
-5
100
-10
Real grow th rate – left
* Last available data is for wages paid for October.
Sources: CBS and CNB.
Nominal net w age – right
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
EUR
10
Average monthly compensation
per employee in economy, 2014
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
EUR
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Note: Average monthly compensation per employee in economy is calculated as a ratio of total
monthly compensation paid to employees and number of employees.
Source: Eurostat.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
0
Gross value added in industry
per person employed
8
6
percentage change
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
GVA in industry
Employment
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015.
Source: CBS.
GVA in industry per person employed
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-14
Inflation
Croatia
Year-on-year inflation rates and
components’ contribution to
consumer price inflation in Croatia
10
7
9
6
8
Core inflation
percentage points
5
4
%
3
2
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
Energy
Processed food
Services
Note: CPI inflation (1996-1998 RPI inflation) and core inflation,
average year-on-year rate of change.
Source: CBS.
6/15
12/15
12/14
6/14
6/13
12/13
12/12
6/12
12/11
6/11
6/10
12/10
12/09
6/09
6/08
-2
12/08
-1
12/07
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1998
1999
1997
1996
-1
Unprocessed food
Industrial non-food without energy
Consumer price index (%)
Sources: CBS and CNB's calculation.
Inflation in Croatia,
euroarea and peer countries
3
2
1.4
1
0.4 0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
0
%
-0.1
-0.3
-0.7
-1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-1.6
-2
2014
* January - November 2015
Note: Average year-on-year rate of change.
Inflation is measured by harmonized consumer price index.
Sources: CBS and Eurostat.
2015*
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Euroarea
Czech R.
-3
Consolidated general government
revenues and expenditures
Croatia
Peer countries, 2014
60
50
50
40
% of GDP
% of GDP
40
30
30
20
20
10
Revenues
Expenditures
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Revenues
Expenditures
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Czech R.
0
Slovak R.
10
Consolidated general government balance
Croatia
Peer countries, 2014
0
0
-1
-1
% of GDP
-2
% of GDP
-3
-4
-2
-3
-5
-4
-6
-5
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
2014
2013
2012
-6
Hungary
Net lending/borrowing, ESA 2010
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-8
Czech R.
-7
General government debt
Croatia
Peer countries, 2014
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
% of GDP
60
% of GDP
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Note: Government guaranteed debt includes other sectors' domestic
and external debt guaranteed by central government.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
General government debt including government guaranteed debt
0
Czech R.
General government debt
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Agenda



Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector
Monetary policy





Central bank’s policy
Monetary developments
Interest rates
External sector
Banking sector
Foreign exchange interventions
and exchange rate
2,800
8.0
2,400
2,000
7.8
1,600
7.6
800
400
7.4
0
-400
EUR/HRK
million HRK
1,200
7.2
-800
-1,200
7.0
-1,600
-2,000
6.8
Foreign exchange interventions - left
1/1/16
1/1/15
1/1/14
1/1/13
1/1/12
1/1/11
1/1/10
1/1/09
1/1/08
1/1/07
1/1/06
1/1/05
1/1/04
1/1/03
1/1/02
1/1/01
1/1/00
1/1/99
1/1/98
-2,800
1/1/97
-2,400
6.6
Exchange rate - right
Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and
conversion factor (1.95583).
Source: CNB.
Exchange rate movements before CNB intervention and
amount of intervention, 1996 – 2015
EUR/HRK exchange rate, change, %
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
intervention, in million HRK
(positive value indicates that CNB buys foreign exchange)
Exchange rate of the intervention day relative to exchange rate 4 days prior to intervention (y-axis) and the intervention
amount (x-axis).
Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor
(1.95583).
Source: CNB.
Creation and withdrawal of reserve money
9
8
7
creation
6
5
billion HRK
4
3
2
1
0
w ithdrawal
-1
-2
-3
-4
Reverse repo auctions and lombard loans
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
-5
Foreign exchange transactions of the CNB
Note: Foreign exchange transactions include purchases and sales of foreign currency by the CNB with
credit institutions, MF, EC and swap agreements. Positive values reflect the purchase of foreign currency.
Values for the reverse repo transactions and lombard loans are shown as change in one quarter.
Source: CNB.
Reserve requirements
and minimum f/c liquidity
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
%
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
0
1/09
0
1/08
10
1/07
10
1/06
20
1/05
20
1/04
30
1/03
30
1/02
%
80
Reserve requirement
Marginal reserve requirement
Minimum foreign currency liquidity
% of RR in f/c allocated in HRK
Note: Shaded areas represent periods when banks' credit growth was regulated by compulsory CNB bills.
Source: CNB.
Liquidity surplus and overnight interest rate
22
10
20
9
18
8
16
7
14
5
% 10
4
8
3
6
2
2
1
0
0
1/06
5/06
9/06
1/07
5/07
9/07
1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13
9/13
1/14
5/14
9/14
1/15
5/15
9/15
4
Liquidity surplus (including overnight deposits w ith the CNB) – right
Overnight interbank interest rate – left
Source: CNB.
billion HRK
6
12
Base money M0
70
60
billion HRK
50
40
30
20
10
Other deposits
CNB bills on obligatory basis
Settlement accounts
Currency outside credit institutions
Source: CNB.
Overnight deposits
Statutory reserves in HRK
Credit institutions' cash in vaults
6/15
6/14
6/13
6/12
6/11
6/10
6/09
6/08
6/07
6/06
6/05
6/04
6/03
6/02
6/01
6/00
6/99
6/98
6/97
6/96
6/95
6/94
0
1/00
7/00
1/01
7/01
1/02
7/02
1/03
7/03
1/04
7/04
1/05
7/05
1/06
7/06
1/07
7/07
1/08
7/08
1/09
7/09
1/10
7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
7/12
1/13
7/13
1/14
7/14
1/15
7/15
billion EUR
CNB's international reserves and money supply
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
International reserves
Source: CNB.
Money supply
Credit institutions' assets
450
400
350
billion HRK
300
250
200
150
100
50
Source: CNB.
Claims on central government
Claims on other domestic sectors
Foreign assets
Reserves and other assets
6/15
6/14
6/13
6/12
6/11
6/10
6/09
6/08
6/07
6/06
6/05
6/04
6/03
6/02
6/01
6/00
6/99
6/98
6/97
6/96
6/95
6/94
0
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
Placements-to-GDP ratio
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
300
100
35
30
250
80
25
billion HRK
200
20
60
%
15
150
%
10
100
40
5
20
0
Placements – left
Year-on-year rate of change – right
Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of placements
and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the
Ministry of Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to
reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred
a portion of its claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent
bank. One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar
banka, methodological changes in the recording of fees and another
transfer of one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an
affiliated enterprise. The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the
end of August.
Source: CNB.
2013
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
2014
Romania
Slovak R.
Lithuania
Czech R.
Poland
Hungary
Bulgaria
Croatia
Estonia
-10
Q1/00
Q4/00
Q3/01
Q2/02
Q1/03
Q4/03
Q3/04
Q2/05
Q1/06
Q4/06
Q3/07
Q2/08
Q1/09
Q4/09
Q3/10
Q2/11
Q1/12
Q4/12
Q3/13
Q2/14
Q1/15
Q4/15
0
0
Slovenia
-5
Latvia
50
Loans of other monetary financial institutions
50
year-on-year rate of change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Household loans
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
-20
Corporate loans
Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of loans and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the Ministry of
Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred a portion of its
claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent bank. One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar banka, methodological
changes in the recording of fees and another transfer of one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an affiliated enterprise.
Source: CNB.
Loans to households - structure
160
140
100
80
60
40
20
Mortgage loans
Car loans
Other loans
Note: The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the end of August.
Source: CNB.
Housing loans
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
Q3/05
Q1/05
Q3/04
0
Q1/04
billion HRK
120
Currency structure of other monetary
financial institutions' placements
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
EUR
CHF
HRK
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
Q3/05
Q1/05
Q3/04
Q1/04
Q3/03
Q1/03
Q3/02
Q1/02
0
Other currencies
Note: Loans in foreign currency include loans denominated in that currency and loans indexed to that currency.
The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the end of August.
Source: CNB.
Broad money (M4)
300
billion HRK
250
200
150
100
50
Bonds, money market instruments and MMFs shares
F/c deposits*
Kuna deposits
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
1/97
0
Money supply (M1)
* Up to May 2006, kuna deposits with a currency clause were included in kuna deposits, and from June 2006
on, they are included in F/c deposits.
Source: CNB.
Euroisation
90
85
80
excluding kuna deposits
w ith a currency clause
75
70
%
65
60
55
50
45
40
Share of f/c deposits in total savings and time deposits
Source: CNB.
Share of f/c deposits in M4
6/15
5/14
4/13
3/12
2/11
1/10
12/08
11/07
10/06
9/05
8/04
7/03
6/02
5/01
4/00
3/99
2/98
1/97
35
Average lending interest rates
22
20
18
methodology changed as of
1 January 2011
16
14
%
12
10
8
4
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/05
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
6
Short-term corporate loans without a currency clause
Short-term household loans without a currency clause
Long-term corporate loans with a currency clause
Long-term household loans with a currency clause
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Average deposit interest rates
12
methodology changed as of
1 January 2011
10
8
%
6
4
0
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/05
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
2
Kuna time deposits
Kuna sight deposits
Foreign currency time deposits
Foreign currency sight deposits
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Interest rate spread
14
percentage points
12
methodology
changed as of
1 January 2002
methodology
changed as of
1 January 2011
10
8
6
2
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/05
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
4
Kuna loans* – kuna deposits*
Total loans – total deposits
Kuna loans** – f/c deposits
* without a currency clause
** with a currency clause
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/ebilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Yield on T-bills and kuna government bond
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
T-bill – 91 day
T-bill - 182 days
T-bill - 364 days
T-bill - 728 days
BND - 5 years
BND - 10 years
T-bills, bonds - average price in a month.
Note: Details about calculation of yield to maturity: Bulletin 210, January 2015.
Sources: MoF and ZSE.
9/15
1/15
5/14
9/13
1/13
5/12
9/11
1/11
5/10
9/09
1/09
5/08
9/07
1/07
5/06
9/05
1/05
5/04
9/03
1/03
0.000
Bonds listed on the ZSE
Nom inal
value
(m illions)
Nom inal
interest
rate
Nom inal
value
(m illions)
Nom inal
interest
rate
EUR
1,000
5.375%
10 years
EUR
25
4.125%
HRK
162
6.125%
HRK
700
2007
10 years
HRK
5,500
6.500%
15.3 years
HRK
250
The City of Vinkovci
2007
10 years
HRK
5.250%
2009
13 years
EUR
10
The City of Osijek
2007
10 years
4.500%
Hospitalija trgovina d.d.
2010
7 years
EUR
8
The City of Split
2008
9.750%
6.000%
Atlantic grupa d.d.
2011
5 years
HRK
115
Republic of Croatia
6.750%
5,000
6.750%
Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d.
2011
6 years
EUR
80
6.500%
EUR
1,000
6.500%
Jadran Galenski laboratorij d.o.o.
2011
5 years
HRK
140
3.750%
7 years
HRK
4,000
6.250%
Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d.
2012
5 years
HRK
300
5.875%
2011
5 years
HRK
3,500
5.750%
Institut IGH d.d.
2012
5 years
EUR
10
9.000%
Republic of Croatia
2011
11 years
EUR
1,000
6.500%
Jadrolinija d.d.
2012
5 years
EUR
11
6.500%
Republic of Croatia
2013
5 years
HRK
6,000
5.250%
NETA Capital Croatia d.d.*
2013
unspecified
HRK
2
8.000%
Republic of Croatia
2013
11 years
EUR
1,400
5.750%
Dalekovod d.d.
2014
15.3 years
HRK
16
4.000%
Republic of Croatia
2015
10 years
HRK
6,000
4.500%
Dalekovod d.d.
2014
15.3 years
EUR
1
4.000%
Republic of Croatia
2015
11 years
HRK
6,000
4.250%
HP-Hrvatska pošta d.d.
2014
5 years
HRK
400
5.125%
Year of
issue
Original
m aturity
Currency
Year of
issue
Original
m aturity
Republic of Croatia
2004
15 years
The City of Rijeka
2006
Ingra d.d.
2006
10 years
Hrvatska elektroprivreda d.d.
2007
10 years
Republic of Croatia
4.750%
Optima telekom d.d.
2007
42
5.500%
Metronet telekomunikacije d.d.
HRK
25
5.500%
9 years
EUR
8
2010
10 years
HRK
Republic of Croatia
2010
10 years
Republic of Croatia
2010
Republic of Croatia
Issuer
State
Issuer
Currency
Corporate
* With call option.
Stock as at 20 January 2016.
Source: ZSE.
Agenda




Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector
Monetary policy
External sector






Exchange rate
Foreign trade
Current account
External debt
FDI
Banking sector
Exchange rate policy



Managed floating
Exchange rate is market determined and based on supply
and demand
Central bank intervenes on the forex market through
forex auctions, but it DOES NOT defend any
predetermined rate or band
Foreign exchange market



Kuna is fully convertible
No restrictions on repatriation of profits and liquidation of
investments
Banks freely determine the exchange rate, engage in the
foreign exchange operations and conduct international
payment transactions
Current account deficit and FDI
10
8.8
8
7.1
7.1
6.5
5.9
% of GDP
6
5.2
5.1
4.0
4
2.9
2.2
2
1.1
0.7
Current account deficit
-1.0
-0.8
2013
2014
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-2
2012
0.0
0
FDI liabilities
Note: According to BPM6 and ESA 2010 methodology. The FDI liabilities data doesn’t include round tripping.
Negative values of current account deficit indicate a surplus on the current account.
Source: CNB.
Structure of the current account balance
10
0
-5
Goods
Source: CNB.
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
Balance
2014
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-15
2012
-10
2000
billion EUR
5
Current account balance by countries, 2014
8
7.0
6
% of GDP
4
2.2
2
1.2
0.6
0.8
0.1
0
-0.5
-2
-2.0
-4
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
-6
6.0
Source: CNB.
EUR/HRK
USD/HRK - right
CHF/HRK - right
1/1/16
1/7/15
1/1/15
1/7/14
1/1/14
1/7/13
1/1/13
1/7/12
1/1/12
1/7/11
1/1/11
1/7/10
1/1/10
1/7/09
1/1/09
1/7/08
1/1/08
1/7/07
1/1/07
1/7/06
1/1/06
1/7/05
1/1/05
CNB midpoint exchange rate
8.5
8.0
7.0
7.5
6.5
6.0
7.0
5.5
6.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
CNB midpoint exchange rate
Daily nominal exchange rates
HRK vs. EUR, USD and CHF
8.0
7.5
Nominal
Real, unit labour costs in total economy
Real, unit labour costs in manufacturing
index, 2010 = 100
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
75
Q3/12
75
Q1/12
80
Q3/11
80
Q1/11
85
Q3/10
85
Q1/10
90
Q3/09
90
Q1/09
95
Q3/08
95
Q1/08
100
Q3/07
100
Q1/07
105
Q3/06
105
Q1/06
110
Q3/05
110
Q1/05
index, 2001 = 100
Index of nominal and real
effective kuna exchange rate
Real, consumer prices
Real, producer prices* – right
* The real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by producer prices is based on the Croatian index of industrial producer prices on
the non-domestic market, which is available from January 2010. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November.
Note: In 2014 CNB revised the effective exchange rates of the kuna by extending the basket of the main trading partner countries and
applying time varying weights. The fall of index denotes appreciation of the kuna.
Source: CNB.
120
110
110
Czech R.
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Croatia
Bulgaria
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Slovak R.
Note: The fall of index denotes real effective appreciation. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November.
Sources: BIS and CNB.
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/05
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
70
Q3/06
70
Q1/06
80
Q3/05
80
Q1/07
90
Q3/06
90
100
Q1/06
100
Q3/05
index, 2005 = 100
120
Q1/05
index, 2005 = 100
Index of real effective exchange rate
deflated by CPI
Slovenia
Merchandise trade
2,500
2,000
1,500
million EUR
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Exports (f.o.b.)
Note: Seasonally adjusted data.
Sources: CBS and CNB.
Imports (c.i.f)
Balance
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
-1,500
Gross external debt by debtors
50
45
40
35
billion EUR
30
25
20
15
10
5
General government
Croatian National Bank
Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank
Other sectors
10/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Direct investments
Note: According to BPM6 and ESA2010 methodology. In the entire series of data, the CBRD is reclassified
from other sectors to the sector general government.
Source: CNB.
Gross external debt by creditors
50
45
40
billion EUR
35
30
25
20
15
10
Debt securities
Source: CNB.
Currency and deposits
Official creditors
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Private creditors
10/15
5
Estimated future principal and interest payments
by debtors
25
billion EUR
20
15
10
5
General government
Croatian National Bank
Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank
Other sectors
Other
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015*
0
Direct investments
* Data for 2015 refer to repayments made until end-October 2015 and projected repayments for the rest of 2015. Data doesn't include arrears.
Source: CNB.
International reserves in EUR and in months
of imports of goods and services
9.5
12.9
11.2
11.2
8.5
12.7
14
12
10.4 10.7
10
9.1
8.7
7.4
6.5
6.6
5.3
5.5
8
6.4
5.7
6
3.8
International reserves (in months of imports)
Source: CNB.
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
2004
2.5
2003
2
2002
3.5
2001
4
2000
4.5
International reserves (in bil. EUR)
billion EUR
months of imports
9.3
7.5
External debt ratios
300
250
200
150
%
100
Outstanding external debt/GDP
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Source: CNB.
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
50
External debt service/Exports of goods and services
External debt ratios by countries, 2014
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Outstanding external debt/GDP
140
250
233.0
124.2
114.5
120
108.4
200
92.1
100
89.7
162.3
149.7
150
141.7
153.0
71.0
80
127.8
%
%
97.6
66.6
63.1
60
100
79.6
40
50
20
Sources: Eurostat, CNB and central banks’ websites.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
Slovak R.
0
0
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
4,000
3,651
3,379
3,500
2,896
3,000
million EUR
2,617
2,500
2,279
2,000
1,593
1,434
1,338
1,500
1,124 1,099
1,019
842
1,000
1,136
1,065
1,018
1,044
710
666
511
500
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
Q1–Q3/15*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1997
-500
1998
0
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
by country of origin
4,000
3,500
3,000
million EUR
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 EU member countries
EU 15
European developing countries
International financial institutions
Other developed countries
Other developing countries
Other countries**
* Preliminary data.
** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment
Source: CNB.
Q1–Q3/15*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1998
1997
-1,000
1999
-500
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – Q3/2015* (30,074.9 million EUR)
2004 EU member
countries
Other countries**
14.6%
0.7%
Other developing
countries
0.3%
EU 15
73.8%
Other developed
countries
8.8%
International financial
institutions
0.0%
European developing
countries
1.7%
* Preliminary data.
** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment
Source: CNB.
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
Q1–Q3/2015* (666.1 million EUR)
Turkey 2.0%
Other countries 15.6%
Slovakia 2.2%
Poland 2.3%
Italy 2.6%
Germany 3.1%
Belgium 4.3%
Slovenia 4.8%
Netherlands 7.4%
Luxembourg 16.9%
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
United Kingdom 38.7%
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – Q3/2015* (30,074.9 million EUR)
Financial intermediation, except insurance
and pension funding
Other business activities
Wholesale trade and commission trade,
except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Real estate activities
Post and telecommunications
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles; repair of personal and household
goods
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical
products
Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum
products and nuclear fuel
Real estate investments
Hotels and restaurants
Other activities
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
Q1–Q3/2015* (666.1 million EUR)
Manufacture of tobacco products
Real estate investments
Construction
Hotels and restaurants
Wholesale trade and commission trade,
except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Other business activities
Recreational, cultural and sporting activities
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles; repair of personal and household
goods
Real estate activities
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical
products
Other activites
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure
 Real sector
 Monetary policy
 External sector
 Banking sector






Size, structure and concentration
Leverage ratio and capital adequacy
Profitability
Coverages
Structure of loans and deposits by institutional sectors
Total assets of the banking system
450
2009
397.9
395.2
2014
378.4
399.9
2013
370.1
2008
400
2012
406.9
391.1
407.3
345.1
350
billion HRK
304.6
300
250
200
150
100
50
Source: CNB.
Q3/15
2011
2010
2007
2006
0
Number of banks
40
35
30
25
15
16
16
15
15
17
16
16
16
16
10
10
2
2
2
2013
2014
Q3/15
20
15
10
16
15
16
17
16
13
13
12
2009
Foreign owned banks
Source: CNB.
2
2
2
2012
2
2011
2
2010
2
2008
2
2006
0
2007
5
Private domestic banks
State owned banks
Banking system by ownership
100
90
70
90.8
90.4
90.6
90.9
90.3
90.6
90.1
89.7
90.1
90.3
5.0
4.2
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.4
5.0
4.2
5.4
4.3
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.8
5.1
5.3
4.7
5.2
4.4
5.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3/15
60
2007
% of total assets
80
50
40
30
20
10
2006
0
Foreign owned banks
Source: CNB.
Other private domestic banks
State owned banks
Concentration index
share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in total assets
80
64.8
63.9
64.1
70
66.9
66.4
65.3
65.2
67.8
66.6
66.8
% of total assets
60
50
41.3
40.9
41.6
41.7
42.0
42.3
43.3
43.4
43.5
44.7
40
30
20
Two largest banks
Source: CNB.
Four largest banks
Q3/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2007
2006
0
2008
10
Herfindahl – Hirschman index (HHI)
1,440.5
1,423.9
2013
2014
1,277.7
1,361.7
1,479.8
1,427.2
2012
1,366.4
1,296.5
2011
1,400
1,400.6
2010
1,600
1,308.9
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
HHI (Assets)
Source: CNB.
Q3/15
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
200
Leverage ratio
equity capital/total assets
16
13.7
14
13.9
13.8
14.0
14.1
14.0
13.0
13.1
11.5
12
9.7
10
%
8
6
4
2
Source: CNB.
Q3/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
Total capital ratio
own funds/total exposure to risks
25
21.78
20.89
21.04
19.90
19.55
20
18.78
16.36
16.43
15.16
15
13.98
%
10
5
Source: CNB.
Q3/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
ROAA and ROAE
15
12.4
10.9
9.9
10
6.9
6.5
6.4
4.8
5
1.6
1.5
2.8
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
0.2 0.8
%
0
0.5
-1.5
-5
-10
-10.2
ROAA (before tax)
Source: CNB.
ROAE (after tax)
Q3/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-15
5.3
7.9
9.0
10.2
11.6
12.3
12.0
92.1
91.0
89.8
88.4
87.7
88.0
Q3/15
3.3
2014
3.1
2013
3.2
2012
100
2011
Classification of placements and
off-balance sheet liabilities of banks
90
80
70
60
%
50
96.8
96.9
96.7
94.7
40
30
20
10
Risk category A
Source: CNB.
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
Risk categories B and C
Coverages
80%
70%
60%
55.2%
54.8%
52.4%
51.5%
47.5%
50%
46.6%
43.4%
40.9%
42.8%
43.9%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
3.2%
4.1%
4.7%
5.3%
6.3%
7.2%
7.4%
Coverage 1
Q3/15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0%
Coverage 2
Note:
Coverage 1 = Total value adjustments and provisions/Total placements and off-balance sheet liabilities
Coverage 2 = Value adjustments and provisions/B and C placements and off-balance sheet liabilities
Source: CNB.
Structure of extended loans (gross)
by institutional sectors
30 September 2015
Non-residents
1.3%
Households*
43.7%
Government units
15.6%
Financial institutions
2.4%
Enterprises
37.0%
* Includes non-profit institutions serving households.
Source: CNB.
Structure of received deposits
by institutional sectors
30 September 2015
Non-residents
11.8%
Government units
2.9%
Households
60.2%
Financial institutions
6.1%
Enterprises
17.8%
Non-profit institutions
1.2%
Source: CNB.