Transcript Di Toro, Powerpoint

Hydrological, Biogeochemical and Water Qualtiy Modeling Are We Data Limited?
Dominic M. Di Toro
Edward C. Davis Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Delaware
NSF Environmental Observatories NEON, OOI, WATERS Network
Modeling Workshop
16-17 May, 2006, Tucson, Arizona
WATERS Network
MISSION STATEMENT:
To transform understanding of the Earth’s water and related
cycles across spatial and temporal scales to enable forecasting
of critical water-related processes that affect and are affected
by human activities…
and develop scientific and engineering tools to enable more
effective adaptive management of large-scale, human-impacted
environments.
The Idea:
The WATERS Network will:
1. Consist of
(a) teams of investigators studying human-stressed landscapes, with an
emphasis on water problems and questions;
(b) a national network of interacting field sites;
(c) specialized support personnel, facilities, and technology; and
(d) integrative cyberinfrastructure to provide a shared-use network
as the framework for collaborative analysis
2. Transform environmental engineering and hydrologic science research
and education by:
(i) providing advanced sensor systems for data collection and state-ofthe-art informatics tools for data mining, analysis, visualization, and
modeling of large-scale environmental issues; and
(ii) engaging academics and others in collaborative, interdisciplinary
studies of real-world problems
3. Enable more effective adaptive management of human-dominated,
environments based on observation, experimentation, modeling,
engineering analysis, and design
Hypothetical example of how the Network might look:
Examples of stressed water and environmental resources
Network Coordination/Management
Collaborative Tools and Resources
e.g. Data and Model Repository
Great Lakes
Inland lakes
Nutrients, Hg
U
Columbia River
U = Urban Water
Systems
Water supply,
invasive species
Nutrients, metals,
microbes, xenobiotics
Contaminated
soils
U
U
U
Lake Tahoe
Algal growth
U
U Hudson River
PCBs, water
supply
Chesapeake Bay
Loss of shellfish
Neuse River
U
Urban Airsheds
Health issues
Algal growth,
Low O2
U
U
Great Plains
Groundwater
Mississippi Basin
Gulf of Mexico
Everglades
Ecosystem restoration
Hypoxia
Developing the scientific tools to enable dynamic adaptive management of human-dominated
environmental systems through a collaborative measurement, modeling and analysis network
Chesapeake Bay Model Grid
50,000 cells
6
4000 cells
10,000 cells
50,000 cells
5
4
3
2
1
0
Chlorophyll
(ug/L)
DO (mg/L)
Ext Coef (1/m Salinity (g/L)
x 10)
Carl F. Cerco
Environmental Laboratory
US Army Corps of Engineers
Waterways Experiment Station
Vicksburg MI
Total_N (mg
N/L x 10)
Total_P (mg
P/L x 100)
Chesapeake Bay Model Validation
Tributary Refinements to the Chesapeake Bay Model (2002)
Carl F. Cerco, Billy H. Johnson, and Harry V. Wang
Chesapeake Bay Model Validation
Summer Averages
Carl F. Cerco
Environmental Laboratory
US Army Corps of Engineers
Waterways Experiment Station
Vicksburg MI
Aliasing – Sampling
0.1
Microzooplankton in CB5
Model
Observed
0
0.02
gm C m-3
0.04 0.06
0.08
(a)
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
Carl F. Cerco
Environmental Laboratory
US Army Corps of
Engineers Waterways
Experiment Station
Vicksburg MI
Modeling Suspension Feeders
Coupling Suspension Feeders to
the Chesapeake Bay Eutrophication
Model
Meyers, Di Toro, Lowe
Water Quality and Ecosystem
Modeling (2000),vol 1,p123-140
Blue Crab Population Dynamics
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
CB Multispecies Monitoring and
Assessment Program
(ChesMMAP) trawl maps
Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
Phase 5 Rivers,
Segments, and Flow
Calibration Stations
Gary Shenk
EPA
Chesapeake Bay
Program 5/5/2006
Potomac
River
Flow
(cfs)
Gary Shenk
EPA
Chesapeake Bay
Program 5/5/2006
Potomac
TN
(mg/L)
River
TN
(mg N/L)
Gary Shenk
EPA
Chesapeake Bay
Program 5/5/2006
Potomac
TP
(mg/L)
River
TP
(mg P/L)
Gary Shenk
EPA
Chesapeake Bay
Program 5/5/2006
Potomac
River
TSS
(mg/L)
Gary Shenk
Gary Shenk
EPA
EPA
Chesapeake
Bay
Chesapeake
Bay
Program
5/5/2006
Program 5/5/2006
Designing an EO
 Decide on a specific question
– Do gravitational waves exist?
– Design the observatory to answer it.
– Physics example: LIGO
 Focus on a general question
– How does a particular ecosystem work?
– Design an observatory with all the available sensors that
could be useful.
– Physics example: Hubble telescope
The Sensor’s Not Available ...
 Total Nitrogen/Phosphorus Sensor?
– Measure everything that can be measured
– Model without the details in certain state variables.
 Physics Example
– High energy physics without the Superconducting
Supercollider
– Precision physics experiments
Modeling and EOs
 Modeling has always been data limited (Data-vores)
 At the limit of model development with currently available datasets
 Models of higher trophic level organisms severely limited
Biomass estimates, behavior, “IBMs”
 Computer power limits to some extent
However, Beowulf clusters, parallel implementations
 Scale up: From experiments to field scale
Models are the only game in town