Transcript Responding to Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay

Responding to Climate
Change in the
Chesapeake Bay
Paula Jasinski
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
November 2009
Overview
 NOAA’s Role in Climate Change
 Executive Order 13508 and Responding to
Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay
Region
 How can MACOORA assist in our efforts?
NOAA’s Role in Climate
Helping society understand, plan for, and respond to climate
variability and change, focusing on 3 major themes:
 Climate Observations and Monitoring to describe and
understand the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, monitoring, data stewardship;
 Climate Research and Modeling to understand and predict
climate variability and change in timeframes ranging from
weeks to a century; and
 Climate Information Services to improve the ability of society
to plan and respond to climate variability and climate change.
Climate Projections for the Mid-Atlantic Region
Parameter 2030
2095
Confidence
in Projection
Carbon dioxide +20 to +30
(change ppmv)
+50 to +120
Very high
Sea level
(inches)
+4 to +12
+15 to +40
High
Temperature
(0F change)
+1.8 to +2.7
+4.9 to +9.5
High
Precipitation
(% change)
-1 to +8
+6 to +24
Medium
Runoff (%
change)
-2 to +6
-4 to +27
Low
Temp and precipitation ranges from Hadley and CCC models for NE US
Runoff prediction for Susquehanna River Basin using water balance model forced with the CCC and Hadley
models
Impacts to Bay Living Resources
 Northward migration of species
 Strong sensitivity of SAV to flow and temperature
 Temperature-O2 synergistic impact on fish/shellfish
 Over-wintering impacts positive (juvenile survival) and
negative (pathogens)
 Complex response of trophic interactions (e.g., bloom
timing)
 Coastal habitat inundation and increased salinity regimes
 And more
Socio-Economic Impact Examples
Human Health




Increased and prolonged heat waves
Advantageous for disease & vectors
Water supply and contamination
Septic system inundation
Economics
 Fisheries, $1 B/year
 Tourism, $17 B/ year, including eco-tourism
~$1B
 Agriculture, $55 B/year
 Coastal Vulnerability, $Billions
 Waning Insurance Coverage
Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System
Tools like CIPS provide
emergency managers and other
planners the information they
need to protect property and lives.
Increase access to this type of
planning tool and include additional
climate information
 E.O. 13508 on Chesapeake Bay Restoration and Protection,
signed May 12, 2009
 The first-ever presidential directive on the Bay and the first
environmental Executive Order by President Obama.
 Established a Federal Leadership Committee, chaired by EPA,
and with senior representatives from the departments of
Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Homeland Security, Interior
and Transportation.
 Calls for strategies to address water quality, public access,
landscape conservation, climate change, scientific monitoring
and the protection of living resources. Watershed wide in scope.
http://ExecutiveOrder.ChesapeakeBay.Net
Seven Topical 202 Reports
(a) define the next generation of tools and actions to restore water quality...
and describe the changes to be made to regulations, programs, and policies
... (EPA)
(b) target resources ... including resources under the Food Security Act of 1985 as
amended, the Clean Water Act, and other laws; (USDA)
(c) strengthen storm water management practices at Federal facilities and on
Federal lands and develop storm water best practices guidance; (EPA)
(d) assess the impacts of a changing climate ...and develop
a strategy for adapting natural resource programs and
public infrastructure (DoC and DoI)
(e) expand public access to waters and open spaces ... and conserve landscapes
and ecosystems ... (DoI and DoD)
(f) strengthen scientific support for decision-making... including expanded
environmental research and monitoring and observing systems; (DoC and DoI)
(g) develop focused and coordinated habitat and research activities that protect
and restore living resources and water quality ... (DoC and DoI)
Draft Major Federal Initiatives
1. REDUCING POLLUTION AND RESTORING WATER QUALITY - EPA
2. CHESAPEAKE FARMS AND FORESTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY-USDA
3. CHESAPEAKE TREASURED LANDSCAPE INITIATIVE-DOI WITH USDA, NOAA
AND DOD
4. RESTORING HABITATS AND SUSTAINING SPECIES-NOAA AND DOI WITH EPA,
USACE, DOD, AND USDA FOREST SERVICE
5. COORDINATE TOOLS AND SCIENCE FOR STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING- DOI,
NOAA WITH EPA, USACE, DOD, AND USDA
6. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE- NOAA, DOI WITH EPA, DOD, AND USDA
7. FEDERAL LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE- DOD& EPA
8. PLANNING FOR LIVABLE COMMUNITIES-US DOT &EPA
203 STRATEGY TO BE FINALIZED BY MAY 2010
Adapting to Climate Change
1. Coordinate climate change science and adaptation activities
throughout the watershed, closely tying into existing regional
federal climate programs. This effort will:
 Establish a framework to support a concerted watershedwide climate effort and integrate climate change concerns with
Chesapeake Bay partners.
 Assess vulnerability of human communities and habitats for
fish and wildlife to sea-level rise and changing conditions in
the watershed and develop policy, guidance, and tools to maintain
resilience and sustainability of lands and habitats.
 Monitor and assess ecosystem responses to climate change
to document the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and
prepare a research needs assessment to ensure critical
information gaps are identified and targeted.
Adapting to Climate Change
2. Implement climate change adaptation on federal lands
and within federal agencies and programs.
 Protect critical habitats and species through
conservation and restoration, including pilot projects for
adaptation response plans, targeted acquisition plans,
development of incentives for conservation of critical
habitats and species, and targeting federal conservation
and restoration.
 Establish adaptation guidance for federal programs,
federally managed lands and federally financed state, local,
and private lands and implement actions on highly
vulnerable lands.
Enough Observations?
18
Long Term Temperature Data From Two Stations
VIMS pier
CBL pier
Bay average
17.5
17
Temperature ( C)
16.5
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
year
Source: Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay; STAC 2008
1980
1990
2000
2010
How MACOORA Can Help
Help address existing uncertainties including:
 Are we monitoring climate change parameters in the right
frequency, density, time series, and making that data
available?
 Are we detecting changes in water quality associated with
increasing temperatures, sea levels, or precipitation
changes?
 What is the impact of sea-level rise on salinity and
suspended solids?
 What is CO2 variability in Bay and impacts on water
chemistry ?
And by taking available data to develop tools that further our
understanding of climate impacts
Summary
 NOAA is a lead federal agency in increasing
our nation’s understanding of climate change,
as well as developing decision support tools
to guide responses;
 Executive Order is a new driver in the
Chesapeake Bay region and ensures that
federal partners will collaborate on responding
to climate change within the region;
 Long-term regional observations are critical to
enhance our ability to understand and respond
to climate changes.