Transcript Islamic Tourism - World Halal Forum

Major Market Trends
David Smith
Global Futures and Foresight
Global Futures
& Foresight
The Reset World
• Facing the future
• Growth drivers
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Globalisation
Economies
Populations
Markets
Business Models
Technology
• Opportunity
• Why standards, why now?
Global Futures
& Foresight
Global Futures
& Foresight
Company Individual Commercial
Vision
Vision
Foresight
Resources
Strategy
Culture
Behaviour
Cycles
Implementation
Values
Comms
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2011
Capability
Global Futures
& Foresight
Five Mega Trends
1.
Globalisation
Global business, new economies, local CSR
2.
Energy and resources
Towards sustainable business
3.
Climate change and
environmental pollution
Finding solutions
4.
Changes in the world of work
Winning the war for talent
5.
New consumption patterns
Moral economy, new and informed consumers
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Global Futures
& Foresight
“The size of the world economy will
triple over the next four decades as
emerging-market economies wield
increasing power”
January 4th 2011
HSBC Holdings Plc
Global Futures
& Foresight
Changing influence
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Group
http://www.gspip.com/_files/download/CH_engl_GS07352_Fly_Next11_24.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
E7 overtakes G7 in 2019
Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
60000
Convergence
Catch-up
Overtaking
40000
30000
20000
10000
G7
USA
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Canada
E7
China
India
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
Indonesia
Turkey
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
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20
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20
06
20
07
20
08
20
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20
23
20
24
20
25
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26
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27
20
28
20
29
20
30
GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)
50000
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
Source: PwC: January 2010
http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=3547&NewsAreaID=2
Global Futures
& Foresight
Consumers (000’s)
5 billion consumers
650 million consumers
Source: UN Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Consumer outlook - Asia
• Asia, excluding Japan, spends $5,500bn
a year on personal consumption. (HSBC)
• $17,600bn in the US and Europe.
• China‘s growth is explosive.
• Average incomes - lower than Albania.
Frederic Neumann, Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong
• China is capable of boosting
consumption by up to 50% by 2025
– 36% of GDP – lowest of
– 50% by 2025.
any major economy
Study by Jonathan Woetzel for McKinsey Global Institute
Source: HSBC, quoted in the FT, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87fb0322-0945-11df-ba88-00144feabdc0.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
Urbanization
1950 - 2030
Global Futures
& Foresight
Fastest growing Cities
Global Futures
& Foresight
$40 trillion infrastructure challenge
Water
Power
Road and Rail
Air/ seaport Total
North
America
$3.62
$1.53
$0.94
$0.43
$6.52
Latin/South
America
$4.97
$1.44
$1.01
$0.06
$7.48
Europe
$4.52
$1.08
$3.12
$0.43
$9.15
Asia /
Oceania
$9.04
$4.23
$2.11
$0.51
$15.89
Other
(MENA)
$0.46
$0.72
$0.62
$0.16
$1.96
Source: Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund 2009
http://www.cohenandsteers.com/downloads/14/fundguide.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
CHANGING POPULATIONS
Global Futures
& Foresight
Global population growth
2011
7 billion
The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
www.watchblog.com
Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org
Global Futures
& Foresight
Islamic population
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Global population increases by 1.3 bn from 2010 to 2030
Muslim countries will contribute 600m people. (46%).
In 2010 23% by 2030 are 26% of world population.
This could rise to 33% in 2050 and 37% by 2100.
Muslims under15 will rise from 500,000 to 1.8m by 2030.
$2.7 trillion today $10 trillion by 2030
http://amirmizroch.com/2011/01/28/pew-world%E2%80%99s-muslim-population-to-increase-35-in-next-20-years/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Urbanisation/Fertility – Muslim countries
Global Futures
& Foresight
Changing Global Influence
Global economic
dominance
from 1950
Global economic
dominance
1850-1950
Global economic
dominance in the
future
Global population
dominance in the
future
Global Futures
& Foresight
Halal markets
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Travel
Tourism
Hospitality
ICT
Portals
Web sites
Media
Banking
Lifa Assurance
Insurance
Investments
Capital Markets
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Property development
Real Estate
Logistics
Warehousing
Industrial Parks
Health
Cosmetics
Fashion
Shopping
Education
Recreation
Food
Defining standards – facilitating growth
Global Futures
& Foresight
Ageing populations
Percentage of Global population over 60
Global Futures
& Foresight
Malaysia Income & Life expectancy
Global Futures
& Foresight
Middle East Population Age
Ageing
Country
Today
Average Age
•Bahrain
•Egypt
•Iran
•Jordan
•Kuwait
•Lebanon
•Oman
•Qatar
•Saudi Arabia
•Syria
•Turkey
•UAE
•Yemen
29.4
24
24.8
23
25.9
27.8
19
31.7
21.4
20.7
28.1
28.1
16.6
2020
Average Age
33.6
27.2
30.8
25.8
33.8
31.5
27
33.9
25.7
25.4
31
33.5
18.8
2050
Average Age
40.9
36.1
40.6
37
40.1
40.2
37.2
41.9
36
37.1
40.7
40.3
27.7
Global Futures
& Foresight
And we’re living longer lives
 Human life expectancies have the
potential to reach 500, or possibly
even 1000.
“The first person to
live to 1,000 might
be 60 already”
Dr. Aubrey de Grey
B.A., M.A. and Ph.D.,
University of
Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK.
Born 20th April 1963 Global Futures
& Foresight
Obesity
By 2050 40% of US population obese.
By 2015, approximately 2.3
billion adults will be overweight
and more than 700 million will
be obese.
(The World Health Organisation)
Global Futures
& Foresight
SUSTAINABILITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Futures
& Foresight
World food demand doubles to 2050
• 50% from population growth.
– All in developing countries
• 50% from economic growth.
– in low income countries
Dr. Robert Thompson, University of Illinois
Global Futures
& Foresight
Food wastage
“Roughly
40% of the food
currently produced worldwide is
wasted before it is consumed.”
Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute
“We are seeing a trend toward
ethical consumerism,”
Jens Lönneker, Cologne based Rheingold
http://pennalternativefuels.com/content/innovative-local-farming-key-global-hunger-fight-group-says
http://www.greenerpackage.com/green_marketing/interpack%E2%80%99s_eye_sustainability
Global Futures
& Foresight
Food production innovation
• Food prices to triple by 2050.
October 2009 - International Food Policy Research Institute .
• Without climate change
prices rise:
– 40% for wheat
– 60% for both rice and maize by 2050
•
As the world population grows.
• With climate change:
– Wheat prices to rise 170% to 194%
– Rice prices 113% to 121%
– Maize to go up 148% to 153%.
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’
November 2009 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-impact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation
Global Futures
& Foresight
People in water stress by 2030
Millions of people
BRIC
ROW
OECD countries
OECD
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2005
2030
2005
2030
2005
2030
Severe
Medium
Source: ‘OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030: Key Results’ 2008
http://www.oecd.org/document/26/0,3343,en_2649_34305_40243802_1_1_1_1,00.html
Low
No
Global Futures
& Foresight
Scarce resources
Rising sea levels, increasing droughts and famine, and a decrease
in water availability will have dramatic impacts
• By 2030 - energy demand up 55%.
• Scramble for resources will be a
major cause of conflict.
• The solution is to be more efficient
and promote sustainability.
• Sustainability & efficiency reduce
cost & raise the company’s value.
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Increasing scarcity of key materials
for many technologies
Figures do not take into account new
demand arising from new technologies
Source: LabNol ‘How Long Will Rare Metals Last?’ October 2009
http://www.labnol.org/home/how-long-will-metals-last/10648/
Global Futures
& Foresight
New Polar sea route
Pen Hadow, Arctic Explorer
Ice gone completely in
summer within 10 years
Global Futures
& Foresight
Market sectors
Global Futures
& Foresight
Islamic Banking to Double…
• Global Islamic banking:
– $1 trillion in 2010.
– $2 trillion by 2015 - 2017
International Islamic Finance Forum Abu Dhabi (Oct 2010).
• Focus on ethical banking values.
“Islamic banks using the foundation of Islam,
should lead the way for an ethical banking
structure. This will pave the way for a
profitable future and be an example to
conventional banking industry,”
Afaq Khan, chief executive officer, Standard Chartered
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/bank_187194.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
…Or Possibly Quadruple?
• By 2020 Islamic banks will
handle 40% to 50% of all
savings of the Muslim
population.
Dr. Nasser Saidi, Chief Economist of the Dubai International
Financial Centre - December 1st 2010 that in
• Islamic financial services
would total $4 trillion by 2020.
http://www.al-shorfa.com/cocoon/meii/xhtml/en_GB/features/meii/features/business/2010/12/04/feature-02
Global Futures
& Foresight
Expansion of Takaful Insurance
• Islamic household savings will reach
$24bn a year by 2020.
Accenture, the global management consultancy, forecasts
• Global Takaful to pass $8.8bn in
contributions last year.
•
Ernst & Young’s World Takaful Report 2010: Managing
performance in a recovery, unveiled at the 5th Annual
World Takaful Conference of 2010,
http://www.thenational.ae/business/banking/islamic-insurance-on-the-rise
http://www.ey.com/EM/en/Newsroom/News-releases/2010-news--Global-takaful-market-forecast-to-surpass
Global Futures
& Foresight
Halal food
• Global demand rising.
• Expected to grow at 20% by 2025
Hamid Badawi, Deputy Chief Executive of UAE Al Islami Foods.
• Halal food accounts for 16% of the
world food trade - just less than
proportionate to the Muslim
population.
IHIA statistics.
http://gulfnews.com/business/general/halal-food-numbers-look-tasty-1.679007
Global Futures
& Foresight
Islamic Travel & Tourism
• As a concept, Islamic tourism has
three main components.
1. The revival of Islamic cultures and
the spread of Islamic values.
2. Economic benefit for Islamic
societies.
3. Deepening Islamic self-confidence,
identity and beliefs.
http://www.staff.uni-mainz.de/alhamarn/Islamic%20Tourism%20-%20paper%20for%20BRISMES%202004.htm
Global Futures
& Foresight
Middle East Air Traffic to Double by 2017
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Air
bus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf
Global Futures
& Foresight
Islamic Tourism
• Almulla Hospitality is to open
150 Halal hotels by 2015,
– In Middle East, Europe and N. America.
• Jawhara hotels aiming for 25%
Sharia-compliant hotels in Dubai.
• Spending 2.5% of net profit as
Zakah.
• Interest is spreading beyond
companies in Muslim countries.
http://wardheernews.com/News_10/July/07_halal_tourism_goes_mainstream.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
Islamic Tourism
• Kempinski, Zurich-based, is
building 30 hotels with Islamic
company Guidance Financial
Group by 2015.
– Opening in N. Africa, gulf region and
Europe.
• Best Western, offers Halal hotels
in Malaysia, Bahrain and Oman.
• Rezidor Hotel Group, Brusselsbased, predicts Sharia-compliant
hospitality to grow 20% per year
over this decade.
http://wardheernews.com/News_10/July/07_halal_tourism_goes_mainstream.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
Education
• Not-for-profit organization created
and sustained by Salman Khan.
– The world's first free, world-class
virtual school.
– A high quality education to anyone,
anywhere
– Tens of thousands of videos in pretty
much every subject
• YouTube-hosted tutorials:
– 35,000 views per day – Dec. 2009
– 70,000 – Aug. 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_Academy
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/23/technology/sal_khan_academy.fortune/index.htm
Global Futures
& Foresight
Science and R&D
• Organisation of the Islamic
Conference (OIC) to make
universities more science-oriented.
Higher education and science and technology ministers
from member countries of the Jeddah-based
• ‘A research-centric education is
the only way out of economic
problems.
(Jan 2011) OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu
• The OIC's target is to spend 1% of
GDP on R&D.
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20110114221820749
Global Futures
& Foresight
CONSUMERS
Global Futures
& Foresight
Drivers of the consumer shift
1. Better educated (more savvy).
2. Buying in accordance with values.
3. Transparency – internet facilitated.
4. Social media penetration.
5. Smart technology
6. Demand for personalized products.
7. Lower barriers to entry in many
industries increases competition..
8. Trust in business. (or lack of)
9. The rise of Green.
10.Service differentiation
Global Futures
& Foresight
Change
Dynamics
Porter’s 5 Forces
Global Futures
& Foresight
Muslim Consumer power
• US Muslims buying
power is $200bn $25,000 per person.
• 1.6bn Muslims worldwide,
generate a current
Muslim lifestyle market
value of $2 trillion
• At 25% of US spending,
global Muslim spend
could reach $10 trillion a
year.
http://halalrc.blogspot.com/2010/11/usa-10-facts-about-muslim-consumer.html
(2) http://www.bne.eu/story2453/Turkey_fashions_a_slice_of_international_Muslim_lifestyle_market
Global Futures
& Foresight
Global consumer consciousness
• Consumers Want a product
with an "added social benefit."
• Consumers want companies to:
– Meet their needs and simultaneously
– Have a positive impact on society.
• Opportunities for brands with
real depth in their stories to step
forward and take extra share.
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3icc3fec8640be4714853d38671ecf3f29
PURPOSE
Source: Fast Company, September 2010 http://www.fastcompany.com/1689263/leadership-philanthropy-is-the-gateway-to-power
Source: PSB Research, March 2010 http://www.psbresearch.com/PSbBlog/post/2010/03/29/CSR-Branding-Survey-2010-Presentation.aspx
Global Futures
& Foresight
Business Models
Global Futures
& Foresight
Premise underlying re-invention
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Reconfigured relationships.
Mash-up business models.
Consumer increasingly powerful.
Innovation is a key differentiator.
Convenience & Quality expected.
Global Futures
& Foresight
http://media.economist.com/images/20050402/1405LD1.jpg
Technology driven innovation
• 70’s and 80
– technology-led innovation.
• 80’s and 00’s
– marketing-led innovation.
• Social computing leads us
to Social Innovation. Forrester.
• Driven by empowered people.
Source: Forrester, http://blogs.forrester.com/cio/2010/02/the-new-era-of-social-innovation.html
Global Futures
& Foresight
networks
DoingSocial
business
networks
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Global relationships
Learning
Sourcing ideas
Co-creation
Recruitment
Building relationships
Community engagement
Networked business models
Over 1.5 billion people in top 40 Social Networks
Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey
Global Futures
& Foresight
Value creation shifting from
workers to outside the enterprise
• Organisations are increasingly
outnumbered by the resources
provided by their network.
• Real business value coming from the
social world as we learn to engage.
• Significant trends such as:
–
–
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Crowd-sourcing
Open and social supply chains
Open innovation
Social media marketing
Social CRM
http://www.sugarcube.in/social/smarter-social-business-person-7-tips/
http://www.dachisgroup.com/2010/08/six-social-business-trends-to-watch/
Global Futures
& Foresight
Technology
Global Futures
& Foresight
Disruptive technologies
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Internet II
Nano
3D
Social media
Mobile broadband
Virtual real worlds
Electronic media
Large Glass displays
Interactive displays
Jamming
The Grid
Holograms
Humanoid robots
Genetic Engineering
Global Futures
& Foresight
Rate of adoption of new technologies
Internet
4
Years
8
until
used by
25% of
US
12
populatio
n
24
Mobile Phone
PC
Television
Telephone
Radio
Electricity
60
1860
Source: Kurzweil Institute
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Global Futures
& Foresight
Internet of ‘things’
Global Futures
& Foresight
New era of mass communication
• Today's Internet - 1.73 bn users.
Internet World Stats.
• World population - 6.9 bn people.
• 2020 Internet to have 5 bn users
National Science Foundation in the U.S
• 2012 the internet will be:
– 75 times its size in 2000.
– 400 times traffic due to online video.
• 2020 most access internet via mobile
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•
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642
http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times
Global Futures
& Foresight
Communications Technologies
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The Singularity
The Semantic Web
Virtual Worlds
Augmented Reality
Personalized Marketing
Evolving Personal
Technological Ecosystem
http://www.uwplatt.edu/web/presentations/PennState/ar/pix/augmented-reality-hud.jpg
Global Futures
& Foresight
10
Artificial Intelligence
• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will
interact with it just like humans.
• There are fewer human
interactions but they take a
more strategic focus.
• Face recognition that identifies
emotional changes.
• Mood Analytics.
24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394
Global Futures
& Foresight
New communication channels
Clooney 1
Acroid 1
Shakira 2
Global Futures
& Foresight
What’s changing?
Everything and everybody
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Economies
Populations
People
Planet
Markets
Education
Work
Business models
Technology
Fix the foundations and get set for growth
Global Futures
& Foresight
“If everything seems under control,
you’re just not going fast enough.”
Mario Andretti
Global Futures
& Foresight
Imagine it
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
Thank you

[email protected]
+44 7932 408901
www.thegff.com
www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith
davidsmithgff
Global Futures
& Foresight