Transcript Africa

The African Economic Outlook 2008
the Pulse of Africa
31st January 2008
Exane BNP Paribas
Geneva
Javier Santiso
Chief Development Economist, OECD
Director, OECD Development Centre
Introduction
1
The challenge of diversifying growth drivers
2
A new investment frontier?
3
Rising Suns: China and India
Conclusion: Africa and Global Decentering
AEO
A unique macro monitoring tool
Comparative, up-to-date and forwardlooking tool
Sound Statistical analysis and data
computation
 Monitoring progress towards MDGs of
African countries: 31 countries in 2007 and
35 in 2008!
 Original indicators (political troubles,
diversification) and macro forecasts
 New background research:
Working papers on political indicators,
privatisation, etc.
Analysing crucial themes for Africa
development
Deeply rooted in African realities
 Previous years: privatisation, energy,
SME financing, transport, water
 Network of local experts, constant
dialogue with stakeholders
 AEO 2008: “Technical Skills
Development in Africa”
 Quality peer review involving AfDB
country and sector economists
3
AEO
From first-mover to regional reference
From 2001:
2008:
A groundbreaking
collaboration
The reference on African
economies
UNECA
4
Coverage 2008: 35 African countries
AEO
New in 2008:
Tunisia
Cape Verde
Morocco
Liberia
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Libya
Mauritania
Equatorial Guinea
Niger
Cape verde
Mali
Senegal
Chad
Sudan
Eritrea
Gambia
Guinea-Bissau
Burkina
Faso
Guinea
Djibouti
Benin
Sierra Leone
Côte
d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Togo
Central African
Republic
Ghana
Liberia
Cameroon
Somalia
Equatorial Guinea
Uganda
Congo
Sao Tome et principe
Gabon
Kenya
Rwanda
Dem.Rep.
Congo
Burundi
91% of GDP
AEO 2008
Tanzania
Comores
Angola
86% of population
Malawi
Zambia
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
Namibia
Botswana
Mauritius
Swaziland
Lesotho
South
Africa
5
Introduction
1
The challenge of diversifying growth drivers
2
A new investment frontier?
3
Rising Suns: China and India
Conclusion: Africa and Global Decentering
Growth
Africa continues steady growth
7
Real GDP Growth (%)
6
Africa
5
Real GDP growth expected to exceed
5% for the fifth consecutive year in
2008
4
African growth is becoming more
broad-based:
3
• 2006: 23 countries over 5 %
• 2007: 30 countries over 5%
2
Total OECD
1
• 2006: 15 countries between 3-5%
• 2007: 12 countries between 3-5%
0
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2007
7
Commodities Commodity price inflation : a recent phenomenon?
Global commodity prices 1900-2000
Commodity prices (incl. energy)*
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Petroleum*
2000
1500
1000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1900
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1950
Metals*
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1900
1960
Non-Energy Commodity prices*
1940
1930
1920
1910
0
1900
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
500
Source: OECD Development Centre, / Oxford Latin American History Database, 2008
*US$ nominal index
1970=1000
8
Commodities The commodity boom: a key driver for Africa
Global commodity prices 2001-2009
500
450
400
500
Petroleum
Copper
Cocoa
450
Tea
400
Coffee (robusta)
350
Coffee (arabica)
Aluminium
350
Gold
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)2009(f)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Source: OECD Development Centre / World Bank, 2008
9
Growth
Oil exporters and importers’ diverging paths?
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2007
Net Oil exporters: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad,
Congo,
Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DRC, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan
10
World growth champion 2003-2007...
ANGOLA
GDP Growth - Leading Oil Exporters - 1985-2007
Venezuela
Iran
Angola
20
15
2007:
Real GDP growth: +19 %
Oil production: +20%
Russia
Saudi Arabia
10
5
2008 outlook:
real GDP growth: +11.5%
0
-5
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-10
1995
Annual GDP Growth
25
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, ERS/USDA Macroeconomic Dataset, 2008
• Broadening investment:
Non-oil sectors, construction, agriculture, manufacturing, services…
• Decreasing dollarization : Strong & stable Kwanza increases local-currency deposits
from 41 to 49 % 2006 – 2007
• Luanda Stock Exchange:
Due to open first quarter 2008
• Reconstruction:
Fresh commitments from China (USD 7 billion credit), Paris Club repayments
11
…but slowing as production reaches capacity
ANGOLA
Angolan and African growth
30
GDP growth %
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Africa
2004
Angola
2005
2006
2007(e)
2008(p)
Net Oil exporters
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008
Slowing growth prospects:
• OPEC quota:
Limiting oil production to 1.9 m b/d.
Impact on growth and government revenue from 2008
• Poor diversification:
Specialisation in extractive industry, difficult business
environment
• Limited spillovers :
25 % unemployment and 68% poverty; weak governance.
12
Below par in light of assets
ALGERIA
Algeria growth
30
Algeria
GDP Growth %
25
Net Oil exporters
20
15
Outlook for 2007:
+3.1%
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007(e)
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008
Positive factors:
• Sustained growth due to favourable international
environment
• Good macro management: repayment of external
debt (4.8% of GDP)
• Investment: Up 7.2%; increasing FDI tonon-oil
sectors
Threats:
•Increasing export specialisation
•Strongly Underexploited potential of
non-oil sectors
• Youth unemployment over 30%
•Low absorption capacity
•Poor governance
13
Africa’s foreign investment darling
GDP growth %
EGYPT
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Egyptian growth
Egypt
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007(e)
Africa
2008(p)
2009(p)
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008
Positive factors:
•Top FDI recipient in Africa ($11.1bln 2007 )
•Very strong export sector (+19.3% at $222bln 06/07)
•Investment up: Dom. +34.2%; Public +47%; Private +62%
•Sustained reforms: new VAT & real estate tax laws, tariff
reductions, improved business environment.
•Important new gas resources discovered in Upper Egypt
Threats:
•High budget deficits
•Subsidy system still accounts for 27% of govt.
spending.
•Inflation (+8.5%) and food prices putting pressure
on households
•Youth unemployment remains high
•Central Bank’s inflation targeting will lead to hikes
in interest rates
14
South Africa
Gearing up for 2010 World cup
South African growth
GDP growth %
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
South Africa
Africa
Outlook:
2007 +4.9%
2008 +4.6%.
6
4
4
2
2
0
Growth 2004-07: +5%
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007(e)
2008(p)
2009(p)
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008
Positive factors:
Threats:
• Sound macro management, credible institutions
• Very high current account deficit: 2006 -6.5%, 2007 -7%
• Good policy mix : budget surplus +0.7 % in 2007/08,
inflation within target 3-6 % over 2004-07
(Russia +9,7%; Brazil +1,2%; China +9,5%)
accumulation and raising investor confidence. Limited
impact of U.S subprime
•Inadequate transport infrastructure: mining penalised by
deficiencies in freight supply chains
• Well-developed financial sector: 10% of GDP.
•Poverty and inequality : High crime;
44.4 % poor; Gini coefficient 0.68 in 2006
•Lack of competition in key sectors: monopolies in
• Investment up (+12 %) to address capacity constraints transport (Transnet), telecom (Telcom), energy (Eskom)
(mining, manufacturing and construction)
•Energy shortages: Cost of power cuts: Rand 2.9 - 8.6
billion. No new capacity on grid until 2012
• Reduced external vulnerabilty : due to reserve
15
Fiscal Policy The rewards of good macro management
Africa: inflation and fiscal balance
(2000-2006)
4
10
Fiscal balance
3.2
Inflation
3
9.5
2.4
• Fiscal balance is positive
• Inflation is stable
9
1
0.1
0
8.5
-0.2
Inflation (%)
Greater macroeconomic stability
attained :
2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Public finance management is
generally good and improving
-1
8
-2
-1.9
-4
7.5
-2.5
-3
-2.8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2007
7
16
Lower debt, higher reserves
Reserves
Reducing vulnerability via the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.
Ratio of Reserves to Short-term Debt*:
Africa
Latin America
100
100
10
Brazil
Peru
Panama
1
Paraguay
% (Logarithmic Scale)
Argentina
10
Cameroon
1
Madagascar
Mali
0.1
Nigeria
0.01
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.001
1995
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.1
1995
% (Logarithmic Scale)
Benin
Note: Logarithmic scale defined as the scale of measurement using the logarithm of the defined ratio.
Source: Avendaño, Reisen and Santiso, “The Macro Management of Asian Driver Related
Commodity Booms”, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, forthcoming 2008.
17
Long-term decline in political risk
Instability
Africa: Political Troubles and
Regime Hardening indicators
600
500
200
Political Troubles
(RHS)
400
150
300
100
Political troubles*
Hardening of the regime*
250
200
50
Regime Hardening
(LHS)
0
100
0
Source: OECD Development Centre “Moving towards political stability? Monitoring political instability,
governments response and economic performance in African countries” forthcoming article, April 2008.
Qualitative data obtained from Marchés Tropicaux et Méditerranéens. Data is used to construct two indicators referring to:
Political instability: occurrence of strikes, demonstrations, violence and coup d’état.
Hardening of the political regime : incarcerations of opponents, measures threatening democracy such as dissolution of
political parties, violence perpetrated by the police and the banning of demonstrations or public debates.
18
Instability
Zimbabwe political mess has little regional impact
No contagion of political instability:
20
15
10
5
0
1998
1999
2000
Hardening Zimbabwe
2001
Tensions Zimbabwe
2002
2003
2004
Tensions regional average*
2005
2006
Hardening regional average*
Zimbabwe & its neighbours’ growth:
GDP Growth %
13
10
7
4
1
-2
-5
-8
-11
1998
1999
2000
2001
Zimbabwe
Source: OECD Development Centre, 2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Regional average*
* Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia
19
Kenya
Infrastructure bottlenecks may compound instability
High cost of a fragile infrastructure
Kampala/Lake Victoria - Mombasa rail line is the
main export channel for landlocked Central Africa
High growth rates in East Africa risk being
strangled by crumbling infrastructure
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Eastern Congo and
South Sudan all rely on the port of Mombasa:
Imports: fuel, aid, diverse supplies
Exports:
25% and 33% of Ugandan and Burundi GDP transit
through Kenya
Tanzania’s port of Dar es Salaam, is at full
capacity, and unable to handle extra Central
African spillover
Source: OECD Development Centre, African Economic Outlook 2008
20
Over the « hump » of debt relief
Aid
0.40
0.35
0.35
0.3
0.33
0.26
100
0.15
80
0.22
0.20
Total ODA
(right scale)
60
0.10
40
Total ODA to Africa
(right scale)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
1993
0.00
1992
20
1991
0.05
1990
% of GNI
0.25
120
ODA as a %
of GNI
(left scale)
ODA (2006
USD billion)
0.30
140
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Banks, 2008
21
Slow progress, despite growth
MDGs
Satisfactory
Not satisfactory
Child mortality
Tuberculosis
Maternal mortality
Primary education
Access to water
Hunger
Gender inequality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2007
22
Outlook
Oil exporter & importers: divergent paths?
Growth
Oil and Mineral exporters
6
Challenges:
• Capitalise on windfall gains
• Maximise spillover to rest of the
economy
• Avoid Dutch Disease
4
2
0
2006(e)
Oil importers
Challenges:
• Contain inflationary pressure
• Finance widening trade deficit
• Streamline spending to prioritise
poverty reduction
% 25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
%8
% 10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2007(p)
2008(p)
Trade Balance
2006(e)
2007(p)
Fiscal Balance
2006(e)
2008(p)
Inflation
% 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008(p)
2007(p)
2006(e)
2007(p)
2008(p)
Source: OECD Development Centre, African Economic Outlook, 2007
23
Trade
African economies safe from U.S downturn?
Due to a low share of external trade with the U.S,
Africa is less vulnerable to effects of U.S subprime woes
African Exports by
Destination - 2006
Algeria
Egypt
Nigeria
Angola
South Africa
Morocco
European Union (25)
United States
Others
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008.
(data on Nigeria corresponds to last available year, 2003)
Note: The “Others” category includes Latin America, Middle East. East Asia
and South Asia.
24
Concentrated U.S / Africa trade
African Exports to the US
30%
2000
25%
Share of Total Exports
Trade
2006
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Algeria
South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008.
25
Concentrated U.S / Africa trade
Trade
Main African Exports to the U.S
Algeria
Egypt
Petroleum and products
Gas natural/manufactured
Gas natural/manufactured
Iron and steel
Organic chemicals
Apparel/clothing/access
0
10,000
20,000
0
$ million
500
1,000
$ million
Morocco
South Africa
Crude fertilizer/mineral
Non-ferrous metals
Apparel/clothing/access
Iron and steel
Vegetables and fruit
Road vehicles
0
50
100
150
$ million
0
2,000
4,000
$ million
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008.
26
Moderate growth across sectors
Trade
Total African Exports to the World
by Sector
60%
50%
Share of Total Exrpots
2000
40%
2006
30%
20%
10%
0%
Fuels
Manufactures
Agricultural
Materials
Textiles
Ores & Metals
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008.
27
Trade
Two very different export profiles
African Exports by Product - 2006
Algeria
Angola
Nigeria
Fuel exporters
Agricultural Materials
Agricultural Raw
Materials
Fuels
Manufactures
South Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Ores & Metals
Diversified
exporters
Textiles
Machinery &
Transport Equipment
Source: OECD Development Centre / Comtrade, 2008
(Data on Nigeria correspond to the last available year, 2003)
28
Introduction
1
The challenge of diversifying growth drivers
2
A new investment frontier?
3
Rising Suns: China and India
Conclusion: Africa and Global Decentering
29
Investment Africa, the new investment frontier?
Capital flows to Africa
A rapidly evolving investment destination:
45
Lower external debt:
from 183% of gdp in 2002, to 69% in 2006
FDI
40
35
Portfolio equity
South-South lending:
South Africa exporting capital
China investing & providing loans, direct entry into
African banking sector (2007: $5bln in deals struck)
Commercial bank lending
Bonds
30
25
Today private capital = 80% of total flows (50% in mid-80s)
Decoupling: Africa’s low correlation with other asset classes
has made it an important in portfolio diversification
20
15
Real lending rates still very high:
SSA 13%
other LIC/MIC: 8%,
Developed countries: 3.5% (04).
10
5
0
-5
2002
2003
2004
Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2007
2005
Savings rate still very low:
SSA: 10% (SSA LIC: 5%, other SSA: 12%)
BICTS*: 28% average savings
Allocation puzzle: the poorest countries have become net
exporters of capital over recent years
30
*BICTS: Brazil, India, China, Thailand & South Africa
FDI
Record investment inflows for 2007
Africa FDI 2007 : $36 billion
• Highest figure on record
• +20% on 2006; +200% on 2004
•FDI outflows - $8 billion 2006
• Largely due to surging extractive industry investment:
South Africa and oil producing countries are still receiving
the bulk of direct investment to Africa
• Previously off-limit sectors opening to foreign investment:
Banking: Congo, Egypt, Nigeria
Telecoms: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cape
Verde, Ghana, Namibia
Land ownership: Morocco
 FDI inflows likely to remain strong, but unevenly
distributed by sector and destination.
Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008
31
Africa still last, despite fast rising investment
FDI
Total FDI flows to developing world
US$ billion
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1990
1991
1992
1993
Developing Economies Total
1994
1995
Africa
1996
1997
1998
1999
Latam & Caribbean
2000
2001
2002
2003
Asia
2004
2005
2006
Transition economies
Source: OECD Development Centre based on UN Comtrade, 2008
Distribution of cross-border M&A purchases in Africa by home region, 1999-2006 (US$ million)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
World
3117
3199
15524
4684
6427
4595
10509
17569
Developed economies
2534
2380
14964
3668
3156
4571
9564
7173
819
559
1016
3270
2024
476
9721
769
520
809
569
1849
360
746
Developing
583
economies
Source: OECD Development Centre / World Bank, 2008
52
Africa
Latin America
373
-
-
67
166
-
-
125
Asia
158
50
39
141
2536
175
116
8850
Source: OECD Development Centre based on UNCTAD cross-border M&A database, 2008
32
Investment Rising investment, unchanged allocations
Global Emerging Market Equity & Bond funds:
Total investments and regional allocations
GEM Bonds
60
160
50
140
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
US$ billion
US$ billion
GEM Equity
180
Assets all funds
(left-hand scale)
120
40
100
30
80
Asia
Latin America
Emerging Europe
60
20
Africa
40
10
20
0
0
Source: OECD Development Centre / EPFR, 2008
33
Equities
South Africa: dominating the investment landscape
$ Billion
Africa total aggregate holdings, equity
20
18
16
All Africa
• Global equity fund allocation remains stable:
10% total funds
• EM funds have grown considerably, especially
since 2003
South Africa
• In turnover, the SA stock exchange is worth
100 times that of Africa’s second market:
Nigeria.
14
12
10
• Africa still lagging behind in investment
compared to other emerging regions (Asia
especially).
8
6
4
2
• Over 2001-2006 period, South Africa received
as much portfolio equity investment as the
entire rest of SSA, 46 times over…
-
Source: OECD Development Centre / EPFR, 2008
• South Africa: received 147 times Botswana’s
total equity investment over same period
34
Private Equity Ideally adapted to African constraints?
Total emerging world private equity funds raised:
2003
2004
2005
2006
$3.4 bln
$6.4 bln
$25 bln
$33 bln
• $21.5 billion raised in first half of 2007
• Sub-Saharan Africa 2006: $2.3 billion raised (+198%)
• Average deal size 2005 $1.2 million, trending towards larger
*
deals
• South Africa: 81% of investments, Nigeria 50% of
remainder(2005)
• Top sectors: Transport,
consumer-related investments,
*
telecommunications/IT (2005)
• Later stage funds : 75% of all in-country investments
2005
*
• “In-country” investments: 96% total. “Outbound ” (intraAfrican) investments nonetheless in strong progression. *
• Emerging Capital Partners: first $1 billion pan-African fund
(2006)
*
*OECD Development Centre / African Venture Capital Association, 2007
Source: OECD Development Centre / Emerging Markets
Private Equity Association, 2008
35
Introduction
1
The challenge of diversifying growth drivers
2
A new investment frontier?
3
Rising Suns: China and India
Conclusion: Africa and Global Decentering
Deepening bilateral trade relationships
Asia
African Imports from India
Share of Imports
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4
Morocco
3
Kenya
2
Ghana
1
Egypt, Arab Rep.
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Senegal
1998
Ghana
5
1997
Kenya
South Africa
1996
Morocco
6
1995
Senegal
Share as % of Total Imports
7
South Africa
1995
Share as % of Total Imports
African Imports from China
Share of Imports
Source: OECD Development Centre based on UN Comtrade, 2008
37
The challenge of China and India’s rise
Asia
The risks of excessive specialisation:
Export Concentration in Products for Latin America
Export Concentration in Products for Africa
Herfindahl Hirschman Index
Herfindahl Hirschman Index
Source: OECD Development Centre, based on Comtrade data, 2008
 n 2 1
 p j  

n 
 j 1
HH

Note: Herfindahl-Hirschmann index calculated as
1
1
n
good j on the exports of country i in its total exports .
, where p j  xij / X i represents the market share of
38
Tunisia
Morocco
South Africa
Kenya
Zimbabwe
2005
Senegal
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
Namibia
Ghana
Cameroon
Zambia
Algeria
Mozambique
Mali
Niger
Congo
Nigeria
Chad
2000
Angola
Brazil
Guatemala
2006
Costa Rica
Colombia
Uruguay
Guyana
Honduras
Paraguay
Peru
Bolivia
Panama
Chile
Ecuador
Venezuela
2001
Mexico
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Asia
Higher specialisation in export markets?
Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index by Destination
Export Concentration by Destination
Export Concentration by Destination
Latin America
Africa
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
HH Index
2005
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
 n 2 1
 p j  

n 
 j 1
HH

Note: Herfindahl-Hirschmann index calculated as
, where p j  xij / X i represents the market share of
1
1
n
country j on the exports of country i in its total exports .
Source: OECD Development Centre, based on Comtrade data, 2008.
39
South Africa
Uganda
Tanzania
Malawi
Cote d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Senegal
Ghana
Morocco
Benin
Mauritius
Niger
Tunisia
Zambia
Mozambique
0
0
Mexico
Belize
Venezuela
Honduras
Guatemala
Ecuador
Panama
LAC avg
Costa Rica
Colombia
Bolivia
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
Guyana
Dominica
Uruguay
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
HH Index
0.6
0.7
2000
Growing yet concentrated African exports
China
Partnering with the Asian drivers:
opportunities and risks of further specialization in raw commodities
African Exports to China
by Sector
US$ billion
6
5
Agricultural
Materials
Fuels
4
3
5
4
3
Manufactures
2
2
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
0
1997
1
1996
1
1995
Ores & Metals
1995
US$ billion
6
African Exports to India
by Sector
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008
40
High value-added imports from Asia:
China
African Imports from China
By Sector
US$ billion
16
14
12
Agricultural
Materials
Fuels
10
8
African Imports from India
by Sector
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Manufactures
6
1.5
Ores & Metals
4
1.0
2
0.5
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.0
1995
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
US$ billion
Partnering with the Asian drivers:
opportunities / risk of raising the bar for competing in labor intensive industries
Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008
41
Net Exports with Asia: growing deficit
China
African Balance of Trade with Asian Drivers
20
US$ billion
15
Total Imports
10
Total Exports
5
Net Exports
0
-5
Source: UNComtrade/OECD
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
-10
42
A new and exciting paradigm shift
China
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2000
2006
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
EU - 15
United
States
Asia (exc.
China)
0
China
1995
Summary
60
50
Export Sellers Credit
20
USD Billions
30
20
10
2005
China Exim bank - Export Credits
25
40
2000
China's lending role in Africa
Africa-China economic links 2006
ÙSD Billions
Africa' FDI to China
1.2
USD Billions
Share of total exports
African Exports by destination
International Guarantees
15
Export Buyers Credit
10
5
0
Total Trade
ODA
Source: UNComtrade/OECD
FDI
Contracted
Projects
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: OECD Development Centre / IMF, 2007.
43
Investment Attractive investments with low correlations
1800
1200
Egypt
1600
Morocco
1000
1400
South Africa
1200
Total Emerging
1000
US 10-year Bond (right axis)
800
600
800
600
400
400
200
200
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
Jul-99
Jan-99
Jul-98
0
Jan-98
0
Source: OECD Development Centre, based on Thomson Datastream, 2008
44
Introduction
1
The challenge of diversifying growth drivers
2
A new investment frontier?
3
Rising Suns: China and India
Conclusion: Africa and Global Decentering
Conclusions Global Decentering and Africa’s XXIst century
1
Commodities are only part of the story. African countries are growing whether
they be exporters or importers of raw materials
2
Africa is increasingly opening up to new actors, interests and sources of capital
3
China and India have already shifted the state of play
4
Africa is at the forefront of a ‘global decentering’
 to watch: private equity and sovereign wealth funds
46
Thank you
More information:
www.oecd.org/dev/aeo