Transcript Tunisia - cedare

Fuel
Economy/Consumption
Tunisian Case study
Center for Environment and Development For The Arab region
and Europe.
Fuel Economy/Consumption
 Fuel economy (Miles per Gallon)
 A measure of maximum distance covered by a vehicle per
unit of fuel
 Fuel consumption (Liter per/ 100 km)
 Amount of fuel saved in lower ranges of MPG higher than
those in higher ranges
 Consumer convenience
Vehicle Energy Efficiency
 Engine
 Losses (friction &pump)
 Aerodynamics & Tires
 Transmission Terrain
 Balancing shafts
 Bore-to-stroke ratio
 Weight& Fuel
Standards
 European Union
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


Entire fleet based on mass of a vehicle
Sliding scale application of standards
Tightening regulations
Overlooking technology
 USA
 First standards: determined solely by production level
 Modified Standards: Size based accounting for sales
levels. Sole reliance on vehicle size
Driving cycle
 Enforcement agency
 Test figures presented by manufacturers
 Cycle based on local conditions: driving patterns and
behavior , road types and elevations levels, etc.
 CAFÉ, NEDC, Japanese and South Korean .
Approach and limitations
 GFEi definition of LDVs
 Sales of new LDVs in the study years. Data obtained
from manufacturers through an automotive markets
consultant
 Official figures for co2 emissions and fuel
economy/consumption are used based on NEDC
 Data was not obtained for 1% of new LDVs.
 Parallel market sales were not obtained
Total Number of Vehicles on the
Road
LDVs sales
LDVs Sales
90000
80000
70000
Number of Vehicles
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2012
LDV sales Morocco
2013
Tunisian Macro Indicators
 Motorization rates (Vehicles per 1000 inhabitants): 121124 much higher than Egypt and Moroccan (OICA,
2012)
 Urbanization rate: 60-odd %, considerably higher than
both Egypt and Morocco
 GDP per capita at PPP : more than $9,500 for 20112013 (CIA, 2014)
 Average GDP growth from 2001 till 2014 is 3.71
Tunisian Trends Explanation
Motorization rate
High urbanization rate
Total number of vehicles
does not show correlation
with GDP growth
Slight variation in total
+number of LDVs sales
Higher GDP per
capita
?
Policy Environment
 Tariff barriers are among the highest in the world
reaching up to 200% + 12% VAT + 3% custom
normality fee.
 Quotas for Shaabiya cars (Trade deficit, arrangements
with local manufacturers of components)
 Luxury cars subject to high consumption tax rates
 Parallel market
 Popular dissatisfaction
Fuel economy/Consumption
data
Fuel economy/consumption
data
CO2 Emissions Data
CO2 Emissions data
160
Average diesel co2 emissions
155
g/km
150
145
140
135
130
2005
Weighted average co2 emissions
2008
Average co2 emissions
2010
2012
Total Weighted average co2 emissionss
Trends
 Fuel consumption/economy lower than both OECD
and non-OECD averages of 7-8 Liter/100km levels for
2005, 2008 and 2011 levels.
 LDVs and CO2 emissions data display similar patterns
 Fuel economy/consumption of diesel and petrol LDVs
are close despite the use of larger diesel LDVs
Trends
 Diesel LDVs comprise luxury cars and 4x4s in addition
to pickups.
 For petrol LDVs unweight average curve is consistently
higher than weight one.
 For diesel LDVS weight average is higher than
unweight one.
Explanation
 Quota system is heavily regulating LDVs sold
 Preference for European cars thus capitalizing on
growingly stringent European standards
 Small engine popular cars
 Less sophisticated variants, missing out on
opportunities for fuel economy/consumption
improvement.
Needs
Opportunities
 Environment is set for the implementation of import
restrictions
 Traditions of heavy regulation pave the way for the
introduction of fuel economy/consumption standards
 Increasing democratization, providing venues for a
transparent, across-the-board societal dialogue.
Way Forward
 Development of a local driving cycle
 Development of fuel economy/consumption standards
tailored for the local conditions.
 Capitalizing on existing enabling conditions for LDVs
markets regulation: public & private bus networks; a
quota system in place
 Creating a win-win situation for consumers by opting
for more efficient technologically advanced vehicles
Way Forward
 Linking policies to attainable fuel consumption savings
in absolute terms
Recommendations
 Establishment of a multi-stakeholder resident
committee to prepare a roadmap for the introduction of
fuel economy standards
 Drawing on international expertise in advising the
committee on preparation and implementation of
standards and import restrictions linked to accruing fuel
savings.