Transcript Spain is convalescing

Global Real Estate Institute
España GRI 2014
Madrid 20-21 May
Keynote speech: “Spain’s
Convalescence”
Prof. Pedro Schwartz
B.Ll., Dr. Iuris (Madrid), M.Sc. (Econ), Ph.D. (London)
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A weak €zone
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Money market interest rates
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€zone inflation
(Annual % changes)
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Spreads against Germany
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Probability of credit events
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€ effective exchange rate
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€zone current account surplus
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€zone & US stock indices
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Spain was pretty sick
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Spain’s value added in
construction
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Unemployment and
employment rates (Spain)
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€zone unemployment
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Spain: bank loans
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Spanish bank:
non performing loans
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Doubtful bank assets
(SAREB effect shaded area)
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Spain is convalescing
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Economic forecast
(Spanish Government)
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Foreign sector contribution to
GDP growth
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Competitiveness
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Exports grow,
more than imports
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Spain’s current account
in surplus
• In the full year 2013, the current account
recorded a surplus of EUR 7.1 billion
(equivalent to 0.7% of GDP), which contrasts
the EUR 11.5 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.1%
of GDP) tallied in 2012 and marks the first
surplus since 1986
• Consensus reckons surplus to be 1.9% of GDP
in 2014
• In 2015 surplus could reach 2.2 % of GDP
(Source: Focuseconomics)
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Confidence returns
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Low systemic risk indicators
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ECB loans to €banks
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New credit to non-financials
by Spanish banks
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Spanish inflation
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Spanish Budget deficit
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Spanish public debt
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Compared real GDP growth
(Δ 1.4% in 2014)
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