Transcript Etude de l*impact du conflit Libyen sur l*économie en Tunisie

Tunisia-Libya Dialogue
Managing Risks and Seizing Opportunities
Together
Institutions: World Bank, UN-ESCWA, ITCEQ, INS, IACE
Team: Abdoulaye Sy, Marouane El Abassi, Vincent Belinga, Majdi Hassen, Mohamed Hedi
Bchir, Habib Zitouna, Lotfi Ayadi, Sami Mouley, Saidi Hedi, Lotfi Hrizi, Habib Fourati, Zied
Ouelhazi, Anna Fruttero, Jose Cuesta.
December 2016
Strong Linkages and Interdependence between the
Two Countries
1.
Long historical ties of trade, migration and metissage
2.
Interdependence of the situation (economic, social, political etc.) in
both countries
3.
Two countries need to
• manage the risks they face through collaboration and coordination
• Deepen their dialogue now to promote the conditions for and seize the
economic opportunities of recovery and reconstruction
“When things go well in one country they go well in the
other…” (1)
Proportion of firm managers that evaluates that the conflict in Libya had a negative impact on their turnover
Evaluation by firm managers of various factors on their investment decisions on a scale of -5 to 5 (-5 :
negative impact ; 0 : no impact ; 5 : positive impact)
“When things go well in one country they go well in
the other…” (2)
Tourist overnight stays in hotels dropped by 55 percent
in 2015 compared to 2014
In 2011, Libyan investment in Tunisia declined by about
82 percent. There was an upward trend since 2013, but
volumes were still below 2010 levels. percent.
Between 2010 and 2014, remittances of Tunisian workers in Libya
decreased by TD 17.8 million, resulting in a loss of TD 300 per
worker
Share of exports to Libya (authors’ survey)
“When things go well in one country they go well in
the other…” (3)
Number of Libyan visitors/tourists in Tunisia
Cash brought in by Libyan travelers through the border
Sharp slowdown in border crossings in 2014 following an uptick in the conflict
in Libya
Entry
Bureau
Ras Jedir
Dhehiba
Total
Vehicle
type
Cars
Trucks
Cars
Trucks
2013
Entries
603,130
52,532
106 978
2,693
765,333
2014
Exits
424,859
55,281
89,122
2,541
571,803
Entries
481 687
36,146
113 838
5,414
637 085
Cash brought in by Libyan travelers through the banking system
2015
Exits
371,131
42,755
79,648
4,595
498,129
Entries
Exits
363,625
276,970
42,422
46,891
80,282
62,594
6,817
3,036
493,146
389,491
“When things go well in one country they go well in the
other…” (4)
• We evaluate that the Libyan crisis has reduced growth in Tunisia by .94
percentage points per year
• Equivalent to 8.8 billion Tunisian dinars (TD) or 880 million U.S. dollars (US$) per
year, about 2 percent of 2015 GDP per year
• Loss mainly driven by effect on private investment and tourism
• Fiscal impact: increased government security spending and loss in tax revenues
Overall loss in growth and simulated impact of the
Libyan conflict
Evaluation by firm managers of the impact of the conflict in Libya on
a scale of -5 to 5 (-5 : negative impact ; 0 : no impact ; 5 : positive
impact)
The Need for Collaborating and Coordinating on
Policies: The Case of Contraband (1)
Informal imports from Libya
• Contraband fuel from Libya is estimated at 495 million liters in 2015 (17 percent of Tunisia’s
domestic consumption in 2014), with a market value of TD 297 million
• Tobacco contraband is estimated at TD 400 million for the year 2015. This market involves a number
of countries in North Africa and the Sahel region.
• Other contraband goods: electronics, household appliances, clothing etc.
Informal exports from Tunisia
• Volume of subsidized foods seized at the Tunisian border has doubled to TD 1.1 billion (1.3 percent
of the 2015 GDP) between 2014 and 2015. Exports that have successfully made it into Libya are
estimated at TD 42.8 million in 2015.
Tobacco Seized by Tunisian Customs
Estimates of Informal Trade Volumes (TD millions)
Year
Cigarettes (packs)
Tobacco
Moassel (kg)
Tobacco
Girac (kg)
2013
2014
2015
5,210,163
7,595,209
8,093,562
27,247
41,784
80,964
4,269
8,483
10,707
The Need for Collaborating and Coordinating on
Policies: The Case of Contraband (2)
Drivers of contraband trade
• Price differentials across the border because of subsidy/tax policies, exchange rate
dynamics and gap with official rate etc.
• Weak monitoring of border
• Corruption
• Weakness of state-owned enterprises
• Lack of economic opportunities in border regions
Tobacco Seized by Tunisian Customs
Fuel price differentials across the border
Regions
Border
50 km from the border
100 km from the border
200 km from the border
Total
% sold
20
30
35
15
100
Quantity sold Wholesale
Retail price Profit per
(Thousands of
price
(Liter/TD) liter(TD)
liters)
(liter/TD)
99,000
148,500
173,250
74,250
495,000
0.600
0.600
0.600
0.600
0.750
0.950
1.150
1.250
0.150
0.350
0.550
0.650
Aggregate
profit
(Thousands
TD)
14,850
51,975
95,287
48,262
210,349
Good
Pasta
Couscous
Sugar
Milk
Quantity
1 kg
1 kg
1kg
1L
Sale price in Libya
Sale price in Sale price in
in TD using
Tunisia (TD) Libya (LD)
official FX rate
0.850
0.800
0.970
1.070
3
3
2.5
2.75
3.900
3.900
3.250
3.575
Sale price in Libya
in TD using
informal FX rate
1.950
1.950
1.625
1.787
Deepening the dialogue now to seize the economic
opportunities of recovery and reconstruction
•
We simulated the effects of a recovery and reconstruction in Libya and its impact on Tunisia (will be
expanded to other countries/blocs: Egypt, Turkey, Italy, France, other EU countries, China etc.):
- Reference scenario: zero percent growth in Libya between 2016-23
- Recovery and reconstruction scenario: (i) oil production gradually recovers to its 2010
level by 2020; (ii) implementation of a public investment program that increases
public investment by 50% relative to the reference scenario
• Impact on Tunisia
- GDP increases by up to US$ 500 million every year (losses during 2011-15 quickly
recovered)
- Main impact on non-metallic products (e.g. cement), agribusiness, other
manufacturing products, chemical industries (e.g. fertilizer).
• Need to promote peace and reconciliation and to deepen the dialogue and cooperation to seize these
opportunities
Impact of a recovery and reconstruction of Libya on
Tunisia (GDP in constant 2010 US$)
Libya GDP (constant 2010 US$) in reference and takeoff scenario
Impact of a recovery and reconstruction of Libya on
Tunisia (GDP in constant 2010 US$)
Thank you