Transcript Update on the ROK LEAP Modeling Effort

Presented for the ROK Team, by David Von Hippel, based on
work by Dr. Kim Hoseok
Prepared for the East Asia Science and Security Project
Meeting, September 23-24, 2010
Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC
Overview of/Update on the
LEAP Modeling Effort in the
Republic of Korea
1
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION:
 The ROK LEAP Model—Current Status and
Ongoing Work
 Data Sources
 Model Structure
 Existing
Paths
 Preliminary Results
 Work ongoing and to be done
2
The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources


Overall: KEEI detailed energy balance tables
Residential—Driven by number of households



Industrial—Driven by industrial GDP, share



Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Survey
on Electricity Consumption Characteristics of Home Appliances
(2006)
Activities: National Demographic Survey (NSO)
Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008),
Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)
Activities: Economic Statistics System
Commercial/public—Driven by building area


Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008),
Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)
Activities: Sectoral floor space information from 2007 Wholesale &
Retail Survey and 2007 Service Industry Survey
3
The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources
Transport—Driven by number of vehicles and travel distance



Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy
Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)
Activities: Fuel Economy & car sales data from KEMCO, Travel distance from
Road Safety Corporation , Yearbook of Construction & Transportation
Statistics
Transformation Module Data:






Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)
Korea Electric Power Corporation
Korea Gas Corporation
Korea Coal Corporation
Korea District Heating Corporation
Socio-Economic Indicators



Statistics Korea
Bank of Korea
4
ROK2010
5
The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure
DEMAND
SECTOR
SUB-SECTORS
ACTIVITY
PARAMETERS
FUELS
Residential
HEAT: By dwelling
type (Traditional, coal,
oil, LPG, town gas,
central, district, others)
APPLIANCES:
18 electric appliance
types
Households
Dwelling types
Saturation of end uses (%)
electricity,
LPG,
heat, coal,
kerosene,
town gas
Industrial
Agriculture & Fishery
Mining
Manufacturing: divided
into 10 business types
Construction
Industrial sector GDP
(Korean Won, or KRW)
Shares of each sub-sector
(%)
Energy intensity (E/KRW)
Fuel share (%)
coal, gasoline,
kerosene,
diesel,
fuel oil, LPG,
town gas, heat,
electricity,
naphtha
6
The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure
DEMAND
SECTOR
SUB-SECTORS
ACTIVITY
PARAMETERS
FUELS
Commercial &
Public
11 business types: Waste ma
nagement, wholesale and re
tail, hotel and
restaurant, information &
communication, real
estate, scientific activities,
business support, education,
health and social work, art
and sports, other services
Floorspace (m2)
Energy intensity
(kcal/m2)
Fuel share (%)
electricity,
LPG,
fuel oil, heat,
diesel,
kerosene,
town gas
Transportation
(Domestic only)
Private vehicles
Mass Transit & freight
Vehicle population
Shares of each
vehicle type (%)
Energy Intensity
(E/vehicle)
gasoline,
diesel, LPG,
natural gas,
electricity,
fuel oil
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The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Activities
Assumptions
Activity/Parameter
2008
2010
2020
2030
Population (million)
48.6
48.9
49.3
48.6
GDP Growth Rate (%)
4.2
4.75
3.66
2.24
Commercial floor space (million
square meters)
385.6
404.7 607.7 807.1
Vehicle Population (million vehi
cles)
17.0
18.4
26.0
34.7
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The ROK LEAP Model: Transformation
Structure
MODULE
PROCESS TYPES
KEY PARAMETERS
FUELS
Electricity Transmission & Distribution
Losses (%)
Electricity
Generation
Coal steam
Oil steam
LNG steam
Combined cycle
Internal combustion
Nuclear
Hydro
System load factor (%)
Process shares (%)
Efficiency (%)
Base year output
Exogenous capacity
Merit order (base,
intermediate, peak)
Fuel share (%)
Coal
Fuel oil
Natural gas
Diesel
Nuclear
Hydro
District
Heating
Heat only boiler (HOB)
Efficiency (%)
Natural gas, fuel
oil, town gas
Town Gas Production
Efficiency (%)
Natural gas, LPG
LNG Gasification
Efficiency (%)
LNG
Oil Refining
Efficiency (%)
Crude oil
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THE ROK LEAP MODEL
TRANSFORMATION STRUCTURE

Electricity T&D

Electricity Generation — 11 Types of power plants,
including Industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

District Heat production

Town Gas production

LNG Gasification

Oil Refining

Blast Furnace Gas Production

Coke Production
10
SCENARIOS
11
THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions
Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand
 Residential



Space heating—continued increase in the share of
town gas and district heating, and continued slow
decline in intensity per housing unit
Substantial increase in use of air conditioners, some
increases in number of televisions, kimchi refrigerators,
vacuum cleaners per household
The energy intensity of electric appliance use decreases
at 0.5%/yr
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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions
Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand
 Industrial—Driven by industrial GDP, share




Commercial/public—Driven by building area,
which rises rapidly


Share of value added by Manufacturing falls slowly
Within Manufacturing, share of “fabricated metal”
increases over time, others decrease
Services share of value added increases over time
Fuel shares remain relatively constant; energy intensity
decreases
Transport—Number of vehicles nearly doubles,
dominated by private vehicles

Most transport energy intensities decline slowly over
time
13
THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Scenarios
Future Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea

Business-as-Usual (BAU) path


Assumes generally that existing policies and currently evolving
economy/energy sector trends continue, similar to Ministry of
Knowledge Economy reference case projections
Minimum Nuclear (MIN) path




Assumes no additional reactors beyond those currently under
construction or planned with defined construction start dates
Existing reactors are decommissioned after 40 years of life for
PWRs, and 30 years of life for CANDU units, but are not replaced
Total nuclear capacity in the ROK falls from peak of ~29 GW in
2019/2020 to 20 GW by 2030
To compensate for decreased nuclear capacity, MIN case includes
an increase in coal-fired and LNG combined-cycle plants in ratio of
70%/30%
14
THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Scenarios
Future Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea

Maximum Nuclear (MAX) path




Assumes the same schedule for decommissioning of existing
reactors as in the MIN and BAU,, but assumes that a new 1400 MW
PWR unit is placed in service each year from 2016 through 2029
(14 units total), more than replacing the 4 smaller units
decommissioned during that time
Retirement schedule for all LWR units is assumed to be extended
to 50 years
Total nuclear generation capacity by 2030 is 42.8 GW
The additional nuclear capacity above the BAU case included the
MAX case is assumed to displace coal-fired and LNG-combined
cycle plants in the ratio 70%/30%
15
Generation Capacity Projections (GW)
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Antracite Coal
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
Bituminous Coal
19.3
23.1
28.8
28.8
29.9
31.8
Oil Steam
4.5
4.5
3.5
3.5
2.9
3.1
LNG Steam
1.5
0.9
0
0
0
0
Internal Combustion
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Combined Cycle
13.8
15.9
19.3
19.3
20
21.3
1.8
3.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.2
Nuclear
17.7
18.7
25.9
31.5
34.2
36.3
Hydro
5.5
5.5
6.4
6.4
6.6
7
Renewable
1.7
0.7
1.7
2.4
2.5
2.6
Total
67.3
73.9
90.1
96.4
100.9
107.1
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Final Energy Demand by Sector: BAU
17
Final Energy Demand by Fuel: BAU
18
Primary Energy Requirements by Fuel:
BAU
19
Electricity Outputs by Fuel
700
600
Pumped Storage Hydro
Hydro
CHP
Oil Steam
Anthracite Coal
Renewable
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Bituminous Coal
500
TWh
400
300
200
100
0
BAU
MAX
2007
MIN
BAU
MAX
2020
MIN
BAU
MAX
MIN
2030
20
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
BAU
2012
2011
2010
300
2009
2008
2007
Million Tonnes CO2 Equivalent
Total GHG Emissions by Scenario
900
800
700
600
500
400
MAX
200
MIN
100
0
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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Next Steps




Final check of Path inputs and results for
consistency with sources
Revise older “National Alternative” path that
emphasizes aggressive application of energy
efficiency and renewable energy measures
Revise older “Regional Alternative” path that
includes National Alternative attributes, and also
models the inclusion of the ROK in regional
energy cooperation initiatives
Detail attributes of the Maximum Nuclear and
Minimum Nuclear paths as needed for modeling
of regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation
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THANK YOU!
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