Transcript An Introduction of Korean Energy Sector and Policy

An Introdution of
Energy Situation and Policy of ROK
September 2010
Park, Jimin
Contents
Energy Situation
Energy Issues and Challenges
Energy Policy and Target toward 2030
I. Energy Situation
1. Economic Growth and Energy Consumption
ROK has shown a rapid growth in economy and energy consumption
during past 40 years
- Average annual growth rate (1970∼2009): GDP 7.3%, Energy consumption 6.6%
Energy consumption per capita continues to grow, but at a decreasing rate
Energy intensity has decreased to 0.25 toe/mln won as improving energy efficiency
GDP & Energy Consumption
[1970=100]
Major Economic & Energy Indicator
1970
1998
62
577
32
46
(Mtoe)
20
166
Per Capita
Energy
948.9Trillion won
1,900
GDP
Energy Consumption
1,600
GDP
AAGR
2009 (70-98) (98-09) (70-09)
980 8.3%
4.9%
7.3%
1.3%
0.6%
1.1%
242 7.9%
3.5%
6.6%
0.61
3.61 4.94 6.6%
2.9%
5.5%
0.32
0.29 0.25 -0.4% -1.3% -0.6%
(Trillion won)
1,300
240.5MTOE
1,000
Population
(million capita)
Energy Con.
49
700
400
70.2Trillion won
(toe)
100
Energy/GDP
19.7MTOE
’70
’74
’78
(toe/million won)
’82
’86
’90
’94
’98
’02
’09
4
2. Energy Demand by Source & Sector
Energy sources have been diversified, but oil share has been still high
- LNG and nuclear power use has been highly increased
- But oil growth rate has been sharply decreasing
Final energy consumption continues to grow, but at a decreasing rate
- Industrial energy use has been more than half of total energy use, but growth has slowed in recent years
- Energy use in transport sector, which has been about 20 percent, has also slowed due to high oil price
- Residential and commercial share has been falling somewhat as households have reached saturation
for many energy end uses and electric devices have substituted for devices using other fuels
Primary Energy Demand by Source
Final Energy Demand by Sector
182.7MTOE
240.5MTOE
Industrial
Transportation
58.6%
Resi./Comm.
43.4
Oil
75.1MTOE
Public/Others
18.9%
93.2MTOE
19.6%
2.4%
48.2%
Coal
25.3
53.8
27.6MTOE 26.2
3.2
56.8
14.2
29.3
13.9
2.6
’75
’90
19.4%
23.4MTOE
3.7%
9.5%
13.8
LNG
14.9
Nuclear
38.5%
29.2%
45.3%
6.7%
RE&Others
2.5
’09
’75
’90
’09
5
3. Projection of Energy Demand
Energy demand will continue to grow, though at a decreasing rate
- Average annual growth rate : (2006-10) 2.6% → (2010-20) 1.9% → (2020-30) 0.6%
Share of LNG, nuclear power, and renewable energy will be steadily increased
But oil share will be decreased from 43.6% in 2006 to 34.2% in 2030, due to the
high oil price, fuel substitution, and industrial structure change
Primary Energy Demand by Source (BaU)
334.3
350
342.8MTOE
311.6
286.6
300
35.8%
258.7
250
200
233.4MTOE
38.3%
41.2%
25.1%
25.8%
24.3%
0
15.9%
2.5%
06
14.8%
15.4%
14.8%
14.3%
3.8%
10
24.7% Coal
25.5%
26.6%
14.4%
13.7%
50
36.9%
43.6%
150
100
34.2% Oil
15.8% LNG
19.5% Nuclear
17.7%
18.4%
18.7%
3.8%
4.3%
5.0%
5.9% RE&Others
25
30
15
20
source : KEEI, Long-term Energy Outlook, 2008
6
II. Energy Issues and Challenges
1. Energy Dependency on Overseas
Due to the lack of indigenous natural resources, overseas energy dependency
has increased to 96.2%
- In 2009 energy import was decreased with the falling oil price, though the volume was almost
unchanged
Also, overseas dependency of metallic minerals has reached to 98.8%
Overseas Energy Dependency
Imports of Mineral Resource
14
Import (MTOE)
amount (billion USD)
Non-Metallic
Metallic
Total
12
95.0
91.2
85.6
14.5
[billion USD]
141.5
10.5
10.8
10
7.94
66.7
8
6.93
6.1
49.6
33.7 32.3
12.3
6
38.3
255.5 257.1
238.7 246.8
228.3
226.6
215.4 214.8 214.9
5.1
4.6
4.5
4
2
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
06
Overseas energy dependency :
’07
’08
’09
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
Overseas metallic minerals dependency :
8
2. Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency of ROK is one of the lowest in OECD countries(24th)
The higher share of manufacturing industry in GDP
- Share of service industry : ROK 57.2%, Japan 68.2%, USA 76.5%
The higher share of heavy energy consuming industries in manufacturing
- Cement, Steel, Petrochemical : ROK 38%, OECD 22%
Energy intensity by OECD countries (toe/US$ 1,000)
0.40
0.32
0.30
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.14
0.10
0.10
0.00
ROK
USA
OECD
France
Germany
England
Japan
source : IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2008 Edition
9
3. GHG Emission and UNFCCC
ROK is the 9th largest country in emission of greenhouse gas
ROK is being pressured to become a member of Annex 1 in post-Kyoto
protocol (after 2012)
CO2 Emission by Countries
Greenhouse Gas Emission
(2006)
Energy
(unit: MTCO2)
Others
Industry Process
5,697
1st
Agri. / Waste
5,607
2nd
2.1%
Household
& Commercial
(unit: MTCO2)
12.4%
1,587
3rd
591.1
19.7%
528.6
1,250 1,213
4th
5th
Transport
34.3%
297.5
84.3%
448
9th
USA China Russia India Japan Korea
Industry
31.5%
83.3%
6.7%
10.0%
’90
Generation
11.0%
4.7%
’00
’05
source : IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, 2008
10
III. Energy Policy and Target toward 2030
1. National Energy Policy for Future Development
Strategy 1
Low Carbon & Low
Energy Consumption
 Energy efficiency
improvement
 Market-based price
system
 Active involvement
Strategy 2
Low Fossil Fuel
 Expansion in
supply of renewable
energy
 Increase in capacity
of nuclear power
Strategy 3
Development of
Green Energy Industry
 Green technology
development both in
domestic and towards
global markets
Strategy 4
Promotion of
Energy Security
 Strengthening
overseas resources
development
 Stable energy
supply
in global initiatives
for climate change
12
2. Policy and Target for Renewable Energy
Renewable energy supply has increased at an annual rate of 17.2% during
1990~2008 (2.4% share in total energy consumption in 2008)
Target for renewables share in energy mix : 11% (2030)
- Key sources for renewable energy : bio-fuel, wind power, solar energy
Supply Trend of Renewable Energy
Supply
Share
[1,000 TOE]
2.43%
6,000
2.06%
5,000
4,000
1.40%
Target for Renewables (2030)
Geothermal
Tide, Wave, Ocean
Solar photovoltaic
Hydro
Solar thermal
Wind
Biomass
Waste material
3,000
2,000
0.36%
1,000
’90
’92
’94
’96
’98
’00
’02
’04
’08
’08
’30
13
3. Policy and Target for Nuclear Power
Nuclear power has contributed to the stable energy supply in Korea
- The share of nuclear power in power generation : 36%
Nuclear power will continuously play a significant role in reducing energy imports
and GHG emission
- More advanced technology development required for safety improvement
- Need to secure the sites of nuclear power plants and radio-active waste
Nuclear Power
Target for Nuclear Power
Capacity (10MW)
Capacity Ratio(%)
Generation Ratio(%)
49
36
41
28
40
28
1,572
36
26
1,772
762
1990
40.6
(59.0 )
1,372
9
6
59
1987
Capacity (10MW)
Capacity Ratio(%)
( ) Generation Ratio(%)
2000
2003
2007
33.5
26.0
(35.5 )
(48.9 )
4,272
25.0
(34.2 )
1,772
1,872
2007
2010
3,152
2020
2030
14
4. Policy and Target for Energy Efficiency Improvement
Energy efficiency has improved 1.3% per year from 1998 to 2007
The stronger measures will be employed (improving 2.6% per year to 2030)
- Promoting knowledge-based service industries (S/W, engineering, design, etc)
- Developing high technologies in energy efficiency (GT, BT)
- Fostering ESCO companies and introducing various systems for energy conservation
Targets by Sectors
Target for Energy Efficiency
[MTOE]
[MTOE]
342.8
(improving
2.1% pa)
Industry
Transport
Household
&
Commercial
Improving
2.6 % pa
240.5
2
(5%)
7
300.4
(19%)
(Target)
’07
’20
’30
Others
17
12
(32%)
(44%)
15
5. Policy and Target for Overseas Energy Development
ROK is the lowest in overseas energy activities among the major energy
importing countries
ROK pursues more active overseas resource developments
- Target ratio of overseas oil production to national oil import : 40% (2030)
• Strengthening of energy and economic cooperation with energy rich countries
• Promotion of overseas exploration and production businesses to the companies
• Strong government supports for fostering technologies and human resources over
energy development
Ratio of oil overseas
production to oil import(`07)
Russia
97%
North America
Central Asia
22%
27%
48%
62%
(’08)
Middle East
Africa
Southeast Asia
South America
9%
Australia
(’09)
Korea Japan
China
Italy Spain France
16
6. Policy and Target for of GHG Emissions Mitigation
Target for GHG emissions reduction : 30% reduction from BAU (2020)
Laying the groundwork for effective and sustained reduction of the emissions
- Establishment of a legal and regulatory framework, carbon trading, a national GHG
inventory report system
- Managing forestation to pursuing to increase carbon absorption
Target for GHG emissions reduction
(unit: MTCO2)
Carbon Absorption by forests
(unit: MTCO2)
BAU
741
Reducing
594
Target
1,854
30%
1,613
570
1,452
2005
2020
2009
2012
2020
17
Thank you for your attention!!