Transcript 4_Grievances - James JF Forest

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Grievances and Opportunities: An Introduction
Bottom line: Terrorism is very much a contextual
phenomenon
We thus have to understand the many different kinds of
contexts that could motivate and facilitate terrorist
activity
Corruption among political and economic elites
Oppressive, authoritarian regimes that stifle civil liberties
Marginalization, favoritism/discrimination, institutionalized
exclusion (e.g. Ethno-nationalism, cf. Byman, Lesson 3)
 Injustice (real or perceived)
 Political disagreements (e.g. reconstruction, Roe vs Wade)
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Most often, many of these conditions coincide, creating a
cumulative effect of animosity toward those in power
Legitimacy is a key factor
Ted Robert Gurr (1970): “As legitimacy declines, people rebel”
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Corruption among political and economic elites
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Weak, failing or failed states (Patrick, Chenoweth, Wahlert)
 “Ungoverned” or “Contested” or “Zone of competing governance”
 “Political instability” especially in transitioning states (Chenoweth)
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Overthrow of government (e.g., military coup)
Peace agreement (N. Ireland; Israel/Palestinians)
Foreign intervention/occupation
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Other political factors?
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Plato and Aristotle:
“Economic factors are fundamental in the outbreak of violence.”
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Marxism:
“War is a mechanism for maintaining inequalities in a struggle for
control of raw materials and markets.”
 Violence is an inevitable outcome of capitalism
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Poverty (Blomberg, et al)
Widespread economic disparities (often tied to corruption)
Lack of government investment in education, public infrastructure
Unequal barriers to social, educational and economic opportunities
Energy poverty
High inflation
Globalization (Barber, “Tribalism and Globalism”)
• Structural economic challenge: Socio-demographic pressures
(youth bulge)
• Age composition of populations in developing countries affects:
– Resource consumption
– Prices
– Government revenues and expenditures
– Demand for jobs
– Labor wages, etc.
• “Current and projected demographic and socioeconomic conditions
in many nations throughout the Middle East, South Central, and
Southeast Asia could lead to the emergence of more terrorism and
terrorists for many decades to come . . .” National Intelligence Council
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Shadow economy (Naghshpour, et al)
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Impoverished communities vulnerable to exploitation by
criminal networks, militias, etc. – some of whom provide social
and economic programs that fill needs unmet by official
government
For example:
 Hizballah in Lebanon
 Hamas in the Palestinian Territories
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Underpaid law enforcement, border security, etc. can facilitate
corruption, criminal or extremist sympathies
 Significant concern in several African countries
Corruption as both grievance and facilitator . . .
Beyond the local . . .
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Diaspora communities, especially in wealthy Western countries
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Globalization (reduction in barriers to global transportation, shipping,
asset transfers)
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Arms trafficking (ease of access to AK47s)
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Trafficking in drugs, humans, diamonds, etc. (revenue streams)
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Global energy dependence facilitates funding streams for violent groups
 e.g. oil bunkering in the Niger Delta . . .
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Aspirations/expectations vs.
opportunities
 Regime unable or unwilling to
change/improve
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Political, socio-economic
conditions offer fertile
ground, but do not always
lead to emergence of
terrorism
Contextual relevance is central to terrorist group formation;
politics and economics are only part of that context