Transcript 080408_EnvEng_Lecture_Sustainability2

Sustainable Development
Linking Energy and the Environment
Washington U. Carbon Impact
Rudolf B. Husar & Erin Robinson
Director, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA)
Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering
EECE Seminar, Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am,
Lopata 101, Washington University
Integrative Science and Engineering for
‘Grand Challenges’
The problems of Energy and Environment (EE) are Grand Challenges
Solutions require engineering, biological, socio-economic and other sciences
A rigorous and practical integrated framework for EE is not available
This is an exploration of frameworks for integrated Energy Environmental Analysis
Interested in the EE integration challenge? Join us on the wiki!
Sustainable Development (SD)
A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the
environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be
developed, what should be sustained?
SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of
where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”.
During the SD ‘journey’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be
‘navigated’ adaptively
Continuing the metaphors, science is the compass, giving the directions
and laws-regulations are the gyroscope for staying on course
.
National Academy, 1999
Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system
(Gaia Theory)
Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the
earth’s major environmental compartments
Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and
energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged.
Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out
flow) of the substances is perturbed.
Atmospheric CO2 has been increasing
because the rate of input is larger than the
rate of output from the atmosphere.
Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols
Dust storms
Volcanoes
Fires
Anthropogenic pollution
Anthropogenic pollution perturbs the natural processes and material flows
Is our climate changing?
Ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum
Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice
Extent
(1979 versus 2003)
Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center
237
342
105
68
H2O, CO2, O3
390
327
169
90
16
[Hansen and Sato (2004)]
Last 50 Years Surface Temperature Change Based on Linear Trends (oC)
2004 Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases
1.8
Radiative Forcing
(Watts per square meter)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
CO2
CH4
N2O
CFC12
CFC11
Source: NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division
Other
Human activities generate CO2
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement
production, and gas flaring for 1751-2002
Analysis Frameworks
Monitoring
Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop
(System Science; Regulatory)
Assessment
Controls
Biogeochemical Cycling Loop
(Engineering; Biology; Conservation Laws)
Causality Loop
(Combined Social-Physical-Biological System)
Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop
Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment.
The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop
Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface
and satellite platforms and
Monitoring
(Sensing)
Set Goals
Assessment
Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions
Track Progress
Controls
(Actions)
Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision
making & actions through analysis (science & eng.)
All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence.
Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.
Monitoring:
New Global Measurements - Satellites
TOPEX/Poseidon
Landsat 7
Aqua
SORCE
Sage
QuikScat
EO-1
SeaWiFS
IceSat
TRMM
SeaWinds
ACRIMSAT
Toms-EP
ERBS
Grace
Terra
UARS
Jason
Monitoring Global Change:
Tropospheric NO2 Measurements from Satellites:
Trend 1995-2005:
- Reductions in N. America & Europe
- Increase over East Asia (China)
Source Identification:
- Man-made, Soil, Biomass, Lightning
- Seasonal pattern of each
Eskes at al, 2006
Controls: Sustainability Transition
Analysis Framework II:
Materials & Energy Flow Loop
Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon
Nitrogen Cycle
Consequences of Ecosystem Changes
How and what to Control??
Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop
Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment
The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop
It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled
Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment
The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis
Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop
Economic Development with Due Care of the
Environment
Socio-Economic
Health-Welfare
EnergyEnvironment
Causality: Linear System Model
Trend of Indicators
1960s
3
40%
30%
20%
10%
2.5
0%
-10%
2
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
1960s
-20%
-30%
-40%
1970s
1.5
40%
1980s
30%
20%
1
10%
0%
-10%
0.5
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
-30%
0
1900
1990s
-40%
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
GDP(Mill$)/Person
Energy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)
SOx/Energy(Bbtu)
Population
SOX Emiss
40%
30%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu
1990s
20%
-30%
-40%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation
1960-2003
Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation
1960-2003
250
Percent Change
200
150
100
50
m
is
si
on
C
ar
bo
n
E
eh
ic
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Fu
el
/V
Pe
rs
on
eh
ic
le
s/
as
se
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P
V
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P
-50
M
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s
0
• The C emission in transportation sector increased 200% since 1960
• The upward drivers were Population, Vehicle/Person and Passenger miles
• The slight improvement resulted from the better fuel energy efficiency/vehicle
Env 449 Class project, SP 2007
Carbon Emission Drivers for US Housing
• The carbon emissions in the housing sector increased 23% since ‘Kyoto’ (1990-2005)
• The upward drivers were Population, Housing Units/person and Surface Area/person.
• The key improvement (13%) resulted from the better energy efficiency/sqft
Env 449 Class project, SP 2007
Summary
• Frameworks for Energy-Environment Integration:
– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)
– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)
– Causality Loop (Socio-economic, Physical, Heatlh/Welfare Sciences)
• Opportunities:
– There is a sensing revolution for monitoring energy-environmental systems
– The web facilitates accessing and metabolizing the new observations
– There is a more collaborative culture for faster, adoptive learning
• Key Challenges:
– Augmenting reductionist science with integrative systems science
– Enhancing information exchange and synergy between disciplines
– Inherent structural and dynamic complexity of environmental systems