Transcript ClassRep04TMP

Class Project Report, May 2004
ME/ChE 449 Sustainable Air Quality
Sustainability Transition, 2000-2050:
Possible role of the Hydrogen Economy
By
Andrew McFarland, Brandon Gustafson, Carol Timson
Instructor
Rudolf B. Husar
Washington University, St. Louis, MO
Sustainable Development (NAS)
•
A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental
limits over the long term. It includes differing views on what should be developed,
what should be sustained and over what time period.
•
Human activities exert pressures, such as burning fossil fuels that alter the state of
environment, such air quality. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses,
such as regulations in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) feedback loop system.
•
These three classes of variables can be measured using data that are collected for
administrative purposes. Combining these data with a simple but flexible scenario
captures a fundamental idea of sustainable development
•
•
The NAS (1999) describes SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which
society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to
get there”. During the ‘journey’, the pathways of a transition to sustainability have
to be ‘navigated’ adaptively at many scales and in many places.
Slide on Hydrogen Economy
Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions
EconMeasure(EM)
Pop., P
Goods &Energy,(GE) i
Fuels&Mater.(FM), j
Emission (EM), k
Industr. Goods
Metals
SOx
Industrial Prod.
Industr. Energy
Ind. Chemicals
NOx
Transportation
Transp. Energy
Coal
HC
ResComercial
ResCom.Engy
Oil
PM
Electric Energy
Gas
Carbon
ai
bij
cjk
Consump./Person
Fuels/Energy
Emission/Fuel-
Ek = S
cjk EMj = S S bij cjk GEi = S S S ai bij cjk P
j
i j
i i j
Consumption of Goods and Energy:
Fuels and Materials Flow:
Emission of Pollutants:
GE = S ai P
FM = S S ai bij P
EM = S S S ai bij cjk P
The causal driver to pollutant emissions is the human population
 These emissions result from energy and material processes, which are driven by economic sectors
The causal factors of anthropogenic Sox emissions can be traced by this chart
40%
30%
Trend of Indicators
1960s
20%
10%
0%
3
-10%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
1980s
-30%
2.5
-40%
40%
30%
1970s
20%
2
10%
0%
-10%
1.5
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
-20%
-30%
1970s
-40%
40%
1
1980s
30%
20%
10%
0.5
0%
-10%
0
1900
SOX Emiss
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
GDP(Mill$)/Person
Energy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)
SOx/Energy(Bbtu)
Population
SOX Emiss
-30%
1990s
-40%
40%
30%
1990s
20%
10%
0%
SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
US Population Trends
Millions
600
4.00%
500
3.00%
400
2.00%
1.00%
300
0.00%
1900
-1.00%
200
•
•
•
2000
2050
-2.00%
100
0
1900
1950
-3.00%
1950
2000
2050
Births
Deaths
Migration
In the 20th century, the US population has grown from 80 to 300 million
In As the birth and migration rates are greater than the death rate, the US population will continue to increase in the future
However, these rates are expected to stabilize over the next 50 years
– Birth rate ~ 1.5%/year
– Death rate ~ 1%/year
– Migration rate ~ 0.25%/year
Regional Population Projections
Regional Population Projections
Normalized Region 2 Population Projection
90000
1.6
80000
70000
60000
1.4
Population Change
Population (thousands)
1.5
50000
40000
30000
1.3
1.2
20000
1.1
10000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
1
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
Year
Colorado
R1 - Pacific Coast
R2 - Mountain States
R3 - Southw est
R4 - Great Plains
R5 - Great Lakes
R6 - South
R7 - Northeast
R8 - Noncontinental US
*Regions split according to
geographic and state growth trends
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
Utah
Wyoming
2025
National Income by Industry Group/Person
12000
1.00
0.80
Income, $ (1996)
10000
8000
Res/com
0.60
Industrial
0.40
Transportation
0.20
0.00
1900
6000
Fraction of Total Income
1950
2000
2050
2100
2.5
4000
Trend by Ind. Group
2
1970 = 1
1.5
2000
1
0.5
0
1900
1950
2000
0
1900
2050 2000
1950
2050
2100
2100
The income of the res/comm sector has grown a the fastest rate, 10-fold since 1930, more than
doubling since 1970.
The industrial and transportation sectors have grown < 30% since the 1950s.
It appears that the industrial and transportation sectors will remain fairly steady over the next 20 years,
while the res/com curve will continue its rise before slowly leveling.