Transcript CausalityFramework

Sustainable Development (NAS)
A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental
limits over the long term. It includes differing views on what should be
developed, what should be sustained and over what time period.
Human activities exert pressures, such as burning fossil fuels that alter the
state of environment, such air quality. The impaired environmental state,
elicits responses, such as regulations in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR)
feedback loop system.
These three classes of variables can be measured using data that are collected
for administrative purposes. Combining these data with a simple but flexible
scenario captures a fundamental idea of sustainable development
The NAS (1999) describes SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which
society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might
try to get there”. During the ‘journey’, the pathways of a transition to
sustainability have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively at many scales and in many
places.
Sustainable Development – Causality Loop
Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment
The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop
It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled
Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment
The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis
Causality: Linear System Model
Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop
Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment
Socio-Economic
Health-Welfare
(OzPolitic)
EnergyEnvironment
Trend of Indicators
SOX Em ission Trends -
3
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
1.5
1. 5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
19 0 0
19 5 0
2000
SOX Emiss
2050
1900
1920
1940
Population
1960
1980
2000
2020
SOX Emiss
2040
Indications and
Drivers of Change
Causality Framework:
Population  Economy  Energy  Pollution
These are measurable indicators, to be monitored for sustainability
Drivers of Change:
Population [person, P]
Economy/Person [$ GDP/person]
Energy/Economy [Btu/$GDP]
Pollution/Energy [Pollution/Btu]
Causality Model
SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu
Trend of Indicators
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900
1920
1940
Population
1960
1980
2000
2020
SOX Emiss
2040
40%
Trend of Indicators
3
30%
1960s
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
2.5
1980s
-30%
-40%
40%
2
30%
1970s
20%
1.5
10%
0%
-10%
1
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
-30%
1970s
0.5
-40%
40%
0
1900
1980s
30%
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
GDP(Mill$)/Person
Energy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)
SOx/Energy(Bbtu)
Population
SOX Emiss
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
-20%
Population  Economy  Energy  Pollution
-30%
1990s
-40%
40%
SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu
30%
1990s
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Pop
GDP/Pers
Bbtu)/GDP
Sox/Btu
SOX Emiss
Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow Emissions
EconMeasure(EM)
Pop., P
Goods &Energy,(GE) i
Fuels&Mater.(FM), j
Emission (EM), k
Industr. Goods
Metals
SOx
Industrial Prod.
Industr. Energy
Ind. Chemicals
NOx
Transportation
Transp. Energy
Coal
HC
ResComercial
ResCom.Engy
Oil
PM
Electric Energy
Gas
Mercury
ai
bij
cjk
Consump./Person
Fuels/Energy
Emission/Fuel-
Ek = S cjk EMj = S S bij cjk GEi = S S S ai bij cjk P
j
i
j
i
i
Consumption of Goods and Energy:
GE = S ai P
Fuels and Materials Flow:
FM = S S ai bij P
Emission of Pollutants:
EM = S S S ai bij cjk P
j
Transportation Causality Chain:
P
Vehicle/
Person
X
Persons
Causality
Factor
Miles/
Vehicle
X
Vehicles
Occupancy
X
Miles
VMT, PMT, FTM
Energy/
Mile
X
Carbon/
Energy
Gallons
Energy Effic.
Carbon
Carbon
The need to move people and goods drives the carbon emission trend.
Vehicle, Passenger and Freight Miles Traveled:
Vehicle Categories included: Air, Car, Heavy Truck, Bus, Rail and Other
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is equal to the weighted sum of the number of vehicle-miles traveled by each
vehicle in the surveyed sample. The calculations are based on odometer readings at the beginning and
end of the year.
Movement of People: Passenger miles are the number of miles traveled by a person per year
Movement of Goods: Freight ton miles are calculated by multiplying the amount of weight (in tons) by the
distance that the weight has traveled.
Vehicle Occupancy:
Occupancy is the efficiency of travel
Occupancy = PMT/VMT
The number of occupants per vehicle is
largely dependent on the purpose of the
trip. .
Occupancy has been decreasing steadily for passenger cars since 1960 from
almost two people/car to one car for every person.
Fuel Efficiency:
It is expressed in Btu/miles and is driven by two parameters: category of the vehicle and specific type in the category.
• Passenger cars have the highest fuel efficiency. Carbon emissions are inversely proportional to
fuel efficiency, thus a passenger car causes the least emissions compared to trucks and other 2axle 4-tire vehicles.
• Trucks are the least fuel efficient vehicles.
• The overall trend is of more efficient vehicles. The direct effect of this trend is a decrease of
carbon emissions for these three categories of vehicles.
*Two sources were used to confirm the data
Carbon Emission by Transportation Sector
(by ground vehicles, excluding rail)
• At the current rate of growth, the US national carbon emissions due to
ground transportation would double every 30 years