Transcript Coppel TD2

International Labour Conference
The effectiveness and scope of fiscal stimulus in
response to the crisis
Jonathan Coppel
Counsellor, Office of the OECD Chief Economist
Geneva, 4 June 2009
Outline
 A bleak economic outlook
 Fiscal measures in response to the crisis
 Medium-term fiscal sustainability
Growth will collapse this year and stagnate in
2010
Average
1996-2005
OECD area, unless noted otherwise
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
q4
2009
q4
2010
q4
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Per cent
Real GDP growth1
2.7
3.1
2.7
0.9
-4.3
-0.1
-1.5
-3.4
1.1
United States
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.1
-4.0
0.0
-0.8
-3.5
1.1
Euro area
2.1
3.0
2.6
0.7
-4.1
-0.3
-1.4
-3.5
0.8
Japan
Unemployment rate3
1.1
2.0
2.4
-0.6
-6.6
-0.5
-4.3
-4.4
0.4
6.6
6.0
5.6
6.0
8.4
9.9
6.5
9.3
10.1
Fiscal balance4
-2.2
-1.3
-1.4
-3.0
-7.2
-8.7
World real trade growth
7.0
9.5
6.9
2.5
-13.2
1.5
World real GDP growth5
3.4
4.3
4.1
2.2
-2.7
1.2
Memorandum Items
1. Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier.
2. Per cent of potential GDP. Estimates of potential have not been revised and therefore do not incorporate a
possible reduction in supply implied by the downturn.
3. Per cent of labour force.
4. Per cent of GDP.
5. OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 82% of world GDP at 2000
purchasing power parities.
Source: OECD.
The recession is the most synchronised in
post-war history
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Proportion of all OECD economies experiencing at least two consecutive
quarters of downturn¹
1. The last historical observation is for 2008q4.
Source: OECD.
Unemployment will rise substantially
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
(In percentage of labour force)
Source: OECD.
Certain categories of employment are more
Figure 5. Employment by type of contract in Spain, 2005Q1-2009Q1
vulnerable*
Base 100=2005Q1
Employment
Self-employed
Permanent workers
Temporary workers
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Source: INE, Encuesta de Población Activa.
* Employment by type of contract in Spain
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
A slow recovery is foreseen
Source: OECD.
Fiscal policy is expansionary
(Cumulative impact on net lending, % of GDP, 2008-2010)
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
Fiscal packages
1. Simple OECD average.
2. Weighted OECD average.
Source: OECD.
Automatic stabilisers
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
The size of discretionary fiscal packages varies
inversely with the automatic stabilisers
Source: OECD.
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
The size and composition of fiscal packages*
* Cumulative impact of fiscal packages over the period 2008-2010 on fiscal balances as a per
cent of 2008 GDP.
Source: OECD.
The size and composition of fiscal packages
Table 2. period
Composition
packages
(Total over 2008-2010
asofafiscal
% of
GDP in 2008)
Total over 2008-2010 period as % of GDP in 2008
Tax measures
Spending measures
Net effect
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
Total
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece 1
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico 1
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway 1
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
-4.7
-1.1
-1.7
-2.5
-3.0
-2.2
-3.1
-0.6
-2.7
na
5.2
9.4
4.7
0.0
-1.7
-4.9
-3.3
-1.2
-0.5
-4.3
-0.8
-1.0
-0.8
-1.1
-3.9
-2.7
-0.5
na
-1.2
-5.6
-1.3
-1.0
-1.0
-0.8
-2.5
-0.3
-2.7
-0.1
-1.4
na
0.0
na
3.8
0.1
-0.5
-3.2
-1.7
0.8
-0.4
-4.2
-0.1
-0.4
na
-0.6
-2.6
-1.7
-0.2
na
-1.0
-3.2
Note: Cut-off date for information is 6 March 2009.
1. Data not available for 2010
Individuals
-1.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-0.1
-0.4
na
-0.1
1.0
2.1
0.0
-0.1
-1.4
-1.2
0.0
na
-4.3
0.0
0.0
na
-0.6
-1.8
-1.3
-0.2
na
0.0
-2.4
Businesses
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
na
-1.5
na
0.0
0.2
-0.1
-1.2
-0.5
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
na
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
na
-0.1
-0.8
Consumption
Social
contributions
Total
Investment
Transfers to
households
Transfers to
businesses
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
na
1.6
na
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
na
0.0
0.0
-0.2
na
0.0
-0.8
0.0
0.0
na
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-2.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.7
na
0.0
na
1.2
na
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
na
0.0
0.0
3.3
0.1
0.7
1.7
0.5
1.9
0.4
0.4
1.4
na
-5.2
na
-0.9
0.1
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.6
na
0.5
1.3
1.0
0.3
na
0.2
2.4
2.6
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.1
0.0
-1.7
-0.2
0.1
0.3
0.9
0.7
1.1
na
0.7
0.3
1.3
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.0
na
0.0
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
-1.1
-1.7
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
na
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
na
na
0.0
na
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.4
na
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
0.0
Transfers to
sub-national
governments
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
na
0.0
na
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.0
0.9
Changes in labour market policy in response to
the recession
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
X
X
United Kingdom
X
United States
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Other training
measures
Apprenticeship schemes
X
X
Other payments or in-kind support
X
Social assistance
X
X
X
X
Generosity or coverage of unemployment
benefits
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Income support for job losers
Training for existing workers
X
Training programmes
X
X
X
X
X
Work experience programmes
X
X
Job-finding and business start-up incentives
X
Activation requirements
Short-time work schemes
X
X
Slovak Republic
Source: OECD.
X
X
X
X
X
X
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Lower employer social contributions
Job subsidies, recruitment incentives or
public sector job creation
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Job search assistance and matching
Measures to help unemployed find work or
improve prospects
Labour demand
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
The effect of fiscal packages on GDP varies
across countries
FISCAL POLICY RESPONE
Effect on level of GDP (%), 2009-10
Note: Bars indicate values based on the reference multiplier case. Crosses show estimates based on a
high multiplier alternative. See Box 3.1 (p.114-116 of OECD Economic Outlook interim report) for
explanation of the basis for the multiplier assumptions. Countries are arranged according to the size
of effect in 2009.
Source: OECD.
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
General government gross financial liabilities
will rise sharply…
Source: OECD.
…due to both cyclical and structural factors
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
(Contribution to total cumulative change in budget balance,
2008-2010, % of GDP, preliminary projections)
Source: OECD.
High government debt tends to raise long-term
interest rates
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
(Spread between long term and short term vs. government debt in % of GDP)
Note: Bars represent average across all OECD countries for which data is available over the period 1994 to
2007. Short-term interest rates are typically rates on 3-month Treasury bills and long-term interest rates
those on 10-year government bonds.
Source: OECD.
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
Sovereign bond spreads have increased since
last year
Source: OECD
European unemployment ratchets up following
severe downturns
6.0
Rise in unemployment rate (%)
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
UK 80s
r = -0.72
5.0
4.0
ITA 80s
3.0
ITA 90s
DEU 00s
FRA 80s
2.0
DEU 90s
FRA 90s
1.0
ITA 70s
0.0
UK 90s
-1.0
ITA 00s
-16.0
-12.0
-8.0
Cumulative output gap (% pt years)
Source: OECD.
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
The recession is likely to have reduced potential
output
-1
-2
-3
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
0
(Average cumulative effect of financial crises on potential output,%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Years
Note: The solid line is the average response. The dotted lines are the upper and lower bound of the 99%
confidence band.
Source: Furceri and Mourougane (2009), OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 699
A final word…
“The national budget must be balanced. The
public debt must be reduced. The arrogance
of the authorities must be moderated and
controlled. Payments to foreign governments
must be reduced, if the nation doesn’t want
to go bankrupt. People must again learn to
work, instead of living on public assistance.”
…from Cicero in 55 B.C!
Thank you
[email protected]