Transcript May 2015- Review of Economy and Markets

Economics/Market Review
All Markets Reversing
Daryl Montgomery
May 14, 2015
Copyright 2015, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation
are not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell
any security and are for
educational purposes only
The New York Investing meetup is not affiliated
with the New York Life Insurance Co.
UK Election: Cameron and Opponents
UK Election: Cameron and Opponents
U.S. Roundup
• Q1 GDP came in at 0.2%, estimate will be revised
down to MINUS 0.4%
• Trade deficit highest since 2008 because of high $,
way above expectations. Expect more.
• Jobs 223K in April, March revised down to 85K.
“Not in Labor Force” at record high .
• Retail sales yr-over-yr growth at 0.9%. Same as in
Oct 2009. On a downtrend since Aug 2014. Key
component of GDP.
• Chicago debt lowered to junk by Moody’s.
US Not in Labor Force
Inflation – Official vs Actual (blue)
Fiscal State of U.S.- Mostly Unchanged
• National Debt: $18.2 trillion
State & Local Debt: $3.1 trillion
GDP: $17.7 trillion[calculation changed]
Debt/GDP Ratio: 103% (120% Fed+State)
• Unfunded Liabilities: $ 96 trillion
Total National Assets: $116 trillion
• Debt doesn’t include Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae +
Freddie Mac and FHA obligations
• Total US Debt: $ 61.7 trillion*
• Student Loans: $1.4 trillion* (600,000 defaults 2011/12)
• Federal Budget Deficit
-2014 $0.483 trillion (CBO described as “modest”)
• 2014 Trade Deficit $737 billion.
• Historically average interest rates would bankrupt U.S.
Global News
• China’s economy weak despite latest stimulus.
Stock and real estate bubbles.
• Greece borrows from IMF to repay IMF. On the
brink of major default.
• EU GDP Q1 at 0.4%. This is with massive QE.
• Japan and 10 countries in Europe have had negative
interest rates.
• Japanese govt debt over 1 quadrillion yen.
• OPEC: Oil under $100 barrel for 10 yrs (LOL).
Investors React to Negative Bond Yields
German Bund Selloff - Yield
Stocks, Commodities,
Currencies, Bonds
Market Summary
• Massive global bond and stock bubbles. 24 central
banks have stimulus polices. EU major QE.
• Only cheap assets are commodities.
• Massive global sell off in bonds. Since March, there
has been a large drop in bond long positions by big
money.
• Nasdaq has hit new closing high after 15 years.
• Dollar seems to have peaked.
• Oil has a confirmed double bottom.
Dow Industrials: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Dow Industrials: 10-Years Monthly
Volume, 10, 40-Month Moving Averages,
S&P500: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq: 25 Years Monthly
10, 40-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russell 2000: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
US Dollar DXY: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
German DAX: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXE: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Swiss Franc FXF: 3-YearsWeekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
UK FTSE: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
British Pound: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japan Nikkei: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japanese Yen: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
China Shanghai Composite: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
India SENSEX: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russia RSX: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Brazil BOVESPA: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Oil WTI: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Natural Gas: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Coffee JO: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Australian Dollar FXA: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Gold ETF GLD: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Miners ETF GDX: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Silver ETF SLV: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Copper JJC: 3-Years Weekly
10,40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Uranium: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
30-Year Treasury Yield: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65 -Weekly Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
10-Year Treasury Yield: 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65 - Weekly Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
The End