Transcript October 2015- Review of Economy and Markets

Economics/Market Review
All Markets Reversing
Daryl Montgomery
October 15, 2015
Copyright 2015, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation
are not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell
any security and are for
educational purposes only
The New York Investing meetup is not affiliated
with the New York Life Insurance Co.
Bernanke Releases Book “Courage to Act”
Excerpt from Bernanke’s New Book
There’s Also a Children’s Version
…And a Porno Version (50 Shades of Money)
Not mentioned in Bernanke’s Book
• Ben Bernanke, 6/10/2008: "The risk that the
economy has entered a substantial downturn
appears to have diminished over the past month or
so“
• Ben Bernanke, July 16, 2008 'Fannie and Freddie
are adequately capitalized. They are in no danger
of failing." They fail 2 months later.
Actual Reaction from REPUBLICANS when
House Speaker Boehner Resigned
US Roundup
• Avg estimate for Q3 US GDP is 1.7%.
• US Jobs 142K in Sept. Avg 2014 was 260K
“Not in Labor Force” 94.6 million v 79.3 million
• US Retail Sales: up 0.1% in Sept, 0.0% in Aug.
Walmart warns going forward.
• Business Inventory to Sales 1.37, last 2 times it rose
to this level were during recessions.
• Mortgage applications dropping.
• US oil rig count at May 2002 low.
• Fed doesn’t raise interest rates from ZIRP. Will keep
putting it off.
Business Inventory to Sales Ratio
Pink is Recession
WF Mortgage Applications Housing
US Economic Recovery Summed Up
Fiscal State of U.S.- Mostly Unchanged
• National Debt: $18.4 trillion
State & Local Debt: $3.1 trillion
GDP: $18.1* trillion [calculation changed]
Debt/GDP Ratio: 102%* (117%* Fed+State)
• Unfunded Liabilities: $ 99* trillion
Total National Assets: $118 trillion
• Debt doesn’t include Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae +
Freddie Mac and FHA obligations
• Total US Debt: $ 65.4 trillion
• Student Loans: $1.3 trillion (600,000 defaults 2011/12)
• Federal Budget Deficit
-2015 $0.468/$0.483 trillion
• 2014 Trade Deficit $737 billion.
• Historically average interest rates would bankrupt U.S.
EU/Asia
• UK miner/commodity trader Glencore melts down.
• Socialists reelected in Greece. Bailout death spiral
continues.
• China may continue currency devaluation.
• Germany: Sharp decline in exports; fall in
manufacturing orders; Volkswagen scandal;
Deutsche bank losses.
• Japanese on verge of recession; impacted by weak
emerging market economies
• Saudis now saying oil glut won’t last.
Stocks, Commodities,
Currencies, Bonds
Market Summary
• Massive global bond and stock bubbles. 24 central
banks have stimulus polices. EU major QE.
• Only cheap assets are commodities.
• Massive global sell off in bonds. Since March, there
has been a large drop in bond long positions by big
money.
• Nasdaq has hit new closing high after 15 years.
• Dollar seems to have peaked.
• Oil has a confirmed double bottom.
Dow Industrials: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Dow Industrials: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, Volume
S&P500: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russell 2000: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
US Dollar DXY: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
German DAX: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXE: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Swiss Franc FXF: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
UK FTSE: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japan Nikkei: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Japanese Yen: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
China Shanghai Composite: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
India SENSEX: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Russia RSX: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Brazil BOVESPA: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Oil WTI: 2 Years
Natural Gas: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Coffee JO: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Australian Dollar FXA: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Gold ETF GLD: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Miners ETF GDX: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Silver ETF SLV: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Copper JJC: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Uranium: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
30-Year Treasury Yield: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
10-Year Treasury Yield: 6 Months Daily
50, 200, 325-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
The End