Transcript Nhongo

The impact of emerging issues
on older people
47th Commission for Social Development, 9th February 2009
Older people
contribute so
much,
it’s time to
invest in them.
The century of ageing
Population over 60 by region
2,000
1,800
1,600
Millions
1,400
1,200
1,000
More developed
regions
800
600
Less developed
regions
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Age Group
Population structure - Less Developed Regions - 2005 & 2050
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
600
2005
400
2050
200
0
Millions of People
200
400
600
Poverty and older people in
Africa
100
% in poverty
75
50
25
No elderly persons
Mixed hh with elderly persons
bi
a
Za
m
Ni
ge
ri a
al
aw
i
M
Ke
ny
a
bi
a
am
G
ui
ne
a
G
Bu
rk
in
a
Fa
so
Ca
m
er
oo
n
Et
hi
op
ia
0
Ongoing, cyclical food, fuel and
climate crises
Even before price rises, 900 million chronically hungry
•
•
•
•
Higher % of income on food
Eating less
Buying less nutritious food
Less to invest in small-scale food production
Food and fuel crisis in Kyrgyzstan
Impact on older people in winter
•
Entire pension (av. $30) on flour
•
Diet of bread and tea – no hot food,
fruit or vegetables
•
Room temperature below 12C :
cow dung or wood
The financial crisis: 2 trends
affecting older people
• Drops in the amount and value of
development aid
• Slowing economic growth
A pro-poor policy response
•
•
•
•
•
More and better aid
Stimulate internal consumer markets
Promote employment & social security
Money in the hands of poor
No reduction in government social spending
High Level Task Force on Food Price Crisis:
“comprehensive targeted social protection
systems that achieve universal coverage of
vulnerable groups and link to other basic social
services will build resilience to future shocks”
Expand and create social protection schemes
The impact of social pensions on
poverty in South Africa
32%
All
households
21%
Households
including
older people
71%
54%
Households
only with
older people
98%
96%
0%
Poverty gap reduction
20%
40%
60%
80%
Destitution gap reduction
100%
Secondary beneficiaries of pension
income in Namibia
Others 6%
Spouse 9%
Children 25%
Grandchildren
55%
Parents 5%
Impact of cash transfers on
economic growth
Social pensions stimulate demand for goods and services
•
In Zambia, 70% of cash is spent on locally-produced goods.
•
In South Africa, new businesses opened because of pension; balance of
spending shifted from imported goods to locally produced goods.
•
In north-east Brazil, pension has significantly stimulated trade.
•
In Malawi – Dowa cash transfer – for every $1 transferred, a regional
multiplier effect of up to 2.45 was observed in local economy.
Cost of social pensions as percentage of GDP
1.8
1.6
1.4
% of GDP
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Nepal
Botswana
Namibia
South Africa
Samoa
Lesotho
Mauritius
Malawi: costs of pension
for all over- 65s
1.8%
percent of national income
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
]
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2008
2025
2050
Thank you
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