Transcript スライド 1 - Casa Asia

CASA ASIA Economic Congress 2004
‘The Recovery of the Japanese Economy
and Its Influence in Asia’
November , 2004
Takashi FUKAYA
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1. The Economic Relationship between Cataluña and Japan
• Economic relationship between Spain and Japan is good.
• Japanese enterprises energetic investment in Cataluña state.
(centering around manufacturing industry,142 Japanese
enterprises have entered into the Cataluña market).
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2. Issues for Discussion
• Japanese and Asian economic trends.
• Focus on India and China.
－ Big markets holding opportunity and risk.
• Differences between Asia and Western society.
－ Closer relationship overcomes differences.
• Vision of Asia and Japan.
－ The recovery of the Japanese economy and
its influence in Asia.
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3. Recovery of the Japanese Economy
• Japanese economy escapes from long term recession,
future strong recovery.
－ FY03, GDP 3.2% Forecast by IMF, etc, 3～4%
• Government progress on regulatory reform,
and structural reform.
－ Push restructuring of enterprise and market renewal.
• Support for R/D and promote corporate innovation.
－ Tax reduction for R/D,
－ Concentrate investment on specific projects.
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4‐(1). East Asia and Japan
• East Asian economic rapid growth.
－ Strengthening export drive to practically use good and
cheep labor force.
－ Formation of regional supply chain network.
(Regional Trade Dependence 1985: 36.2%. 2002: 51.8%)
－ Appearance of middle class with purchasing power.
• China is growth especially remarkable.
－ Market-oriented economic reform, liberalization
spring from WTO participation.
• Therefore, created global triangular trade system.
－ Japan：advanced parts. ASEAN：interim goods.
China：assembly.
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4-（2）
Influence on Japanese recovery and way to expand cooperation
• Japanese economy is affected by East Asian supply chain
network.
－ For rapid spread of the trade relationship with
East Asian economies.
(1992: $180bil, → 2002: $304bil,)
－ For FDI into East Asia.
• Japanese recovery is also important to East Asia.
• Therefore, East Asian countries and Japan promote
FTA/EPA possibility.
－ 2002: Conclusion with Singapore.
2003: Start negotiation with South Korea.
2004: Start with Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia.
2005: Will start with ASEAN.
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4-（3）. Risk and Potential of East Asia
• The growth of East Asia is an inherent systematic risk.
－ Increase energy consumption due to careless consumption.
－ Exchange rate risk due to dollar devaluation pressure.
• Japan is need to overcome systemic risk and play a role in Asia.
－ Supply capital, advanced technology
and key industrial parts.
－ Policy and regulatory cooperation based on
the Japanese experience.
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5. India – The Great Elephant
• Increased Indian presence.
－ Interest due the base of IT business outsourcing.
－ Big territory and large educated population.
• Structural change an Indian economy/industry.(1980→2000)
－ Share of agriculture in GDP:
38.6% → 24.9%
Share of service sector in GDP: 37.2% → 48.2%
－ Formation of IT cluster.
(Bangalore region so called “Indian Silicon Valley”)
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6. Other Regions of Asia
• History of Asian economic development.
－ Flying Geese Pattern Model.
(Japan＞NIEs＞ASEAN＞China＞Where?)
－ Open and reformable policy of China.
→ Market-oriented economic reform.
• Reasons for Asian success.
－ Division of production process leading manufacturing
industry, and leveling welfare distribution.
－ Increase FDI → export oriented industry creation.
• But… environment of other areas of Asia (ex. Middle East)
is different.
－ Continuation of political opposition.
－ Dependence on natural resources.
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－ Concentration of wealth.
7. Toward Development of Asia
• Handling Asia’s potential and risks.
－ Maintain and spread the good growth cycle.
(Agree to the economic growth policy.
→ Provide an environment for FDI.
→ Accumulation of industry.
→ Improvement of labor productivity through the welfare
distribution.
→ Creation consumer market.)
－ Provision of the institutions for industrial structure reform
and evasion of systemic risk.
• Japan will contribute with Asian countries toward prosperity
and stable growth of Asia.
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Muchas Gracias!
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