Transcript 2009_Hooghe_Enlargement

EU
Enlargement
FYR
Enlargement: from 6 to 27





1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark
1981-86: Greece, Spain, Portugal
1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland
2004: “big bang”– eight countries in
Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta
and Cyprus
2007: Bulgaria and Romania
Copenhagen criteria
“Membership requires that the candidate country
has achieved stability of institutions
guaranteeing . . .”
• 1) the rule of law, human rights and respect for,
and protection of minorities
• 2) democracy
• 3) the existence of a functioning market
economy
Why do CEEC countries want EU membership?
• Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weight
• Economics: aid, market access, European
capitalism
• Politics: consolidate democracy
Why do 15 EU members support enlargement?
•Geopolitics: stable borders
•Economics: cheaper labor, consumers, growth
•Politics: Moral obligation to stitch Europe back
together
Regional
disparities
in the
enlarged
EU
COHESION POLICY
Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU.
About 1/3 of EU spending
2000-2006 = 213 billion Euros
2007-2013 = 330 billion Euros
0.4% of total EU GDP
Up to 10 % total public spending in new members
Corruption
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Denmark (1)
Sweden (1)
Finland (5)
Netherlands (7)
Canada (9)
Luxembourg (11)
Austria (12)
Germany (14)
Ireland, UK (16)
Belgium, USA (18)
France (23)
Slovenia (26)
Estonia (27)
Spain (28)
Cyprus (31)
Portugal (32)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Malta (36)
Czech Rep (45)
Hungary (47)
Slovakia, Latvia (52)
Italy (55)
Greece (57)
Lithuania, Poland & Turkey (58)
Croatia (62)
Romania (70)
Bulgaria, Mexico, Macedonia
(72)
• Montenegro, and Serbia (85)
• Bosnia (92)
Corruption ratings from Transparency
International, 2008
Minority rights
• Not in EU treaties, mainly Council of Europe
(Commissioner of Human Rights)
• Copenhagen criteria
• Commission annual monitoring reports during
accession
• EU agency for fundamental rights
• Private associations, e.g. EUmap.org [Soros]
• Problems:
– Russian minorities in Baltic states
– Roma (esp. Central- and Eastern Europe)
– Muslims (esp. Western Europe)
EU wide survey, EU-Midis,
May 2009
(www.fra.europa.eu)
23,500 persons from selected immigrant and
ethnic minority groups in all 27 Member States
of the European Union.
Eurobarometer 85 November 2005
Next enlargement candidates
• Turkey, Croatia, Macedonia
• Rest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania
Beyond enlargement: European
Neighborhood policy
• Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian
Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco
• Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia
• Budget for 2007-12: 12 billion Euros
EU: top-down
approach
• Skeptical on capacity to
create democracy, certainly
not by the sword
US: bottom-up
approach
• Optimistic about capacity to
create democracy, if
necessary by the sword
• Focus on state building and
consolidation
• Focus on society building
and promotion
• Focus on rule of law, good
• Focus on elections, civil
governance
•  Work with judges, police
forces, bureaucrats, political
leaders
society
•  Work with civil society
groups, election monitoring,
parties
What works for regime change?
• Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments:
Conditional EU membership
• clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure
(Commission annual country reports, implementation and
periodic monitoring reports)
• multilateralism
• bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest
rates
• Essential: domestic political competition
• Long-term: socialization + learning