Transcript Politecnico di Milano

ESPON Workshop at the Open Days
Brussels, 6 October 2010
ESPON provides regions with targeted analysis
SPAN-3: Spatial Perspectives at Nuts-3 Level
For the Latin Arc
Roberto Camagni (Politecnico di Milano)
The Team
Lead partner: Politecnico di Milano:
Project Coordinator: Prof. Roberto Camagni (Full Professor)
Project Manager: Antonio Affuso (Research Fellow)
Prof. Roberta Capello (Full Professor of Regional Economics)
Ugo Fratesi and Camilla Lenzi (Researchers)
Subcontractor for Scenario building: Jacques ROBERT (Tersyn)
Project Partner: Institut d'Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona
(UAB):
Prof. Joan Trullén (Director - Tenure of Applied Economics)
Prof. Rafael Boix (Coordinator - Senior Lecturer)
Vittorio Galletto, Daniel Sánchez (PhD Students)
Stakeholders:
Députaciò de Barcelona, leader;
Provincia di Torino;
Département de l’Hérault.
General goals
to show how the general ESPON approach to spatial analysis can
be useful to local policy makers;
to build new methodologies and tools which could provide support
to policy makers for quantitative assessment and foresight;
to develop interesting and stimulating partnership processes
between scholars, local-regional policy makers and public officials
,European functionaries in charge of EU regional policy.
The general structure of the project
Structure and Performance of
the Barcelona Area
(D.1)
New MASST Foresight
(B)
Thematic and Integrated
Qualitative Scenarios
(A.1)
MAN -3 Submodel
(C)
First Scenario on Barcelona
(D.2)
Quali-Quantitative Scenarios on
MED-ARCH
(E)
Final Scenario on Barcelona and
Policy Recommendations
(F)
Territorial Qualitative Scenarios
(A.2)
New Scenarios for EU regions after the crisis
a)The “reference” scenario: considers emerging global contradictions and
consequent structural breaks:
-Demand based on debt in advanced countries,
-Financialization of western economies and related risks,
-BRICs supporting western consumption, real income and balance of payment
b) The perception of these structural changes will be different in the two main
scenarios:
-in the first scenario, changes will be perceived and even anticipated. The
capacity to pro-act is large: pro-active scenario
-In the second scenario, changes are not perceived by economic actors.
Development assets will be more similar to the past, and risks of low
development rates higher: re-active (defensive) scenario
The new Reference Scenario
-“Regionalized” globalization, with the large “triad” areas (Europe, America,
Asia) more independent and more internally integrated
- BRICs enter progressively in the medium and high technology game
The growth of real income in Europe will be more modest;
- Purchasing power of some groups will be particularly affected;
- “Regionalized” globalization processes will enable the recovery of
manufacturing activities in Europe;
- A number of new technologies will develop: nanotech, biotech, transport
technologies, new materials
- More importantly: a new paradigm will emerge: the “green economy”..
Many sectors touched: manufacturing, energy, transport, building and
construction, tourism, agriculture (zero-km)
Provides a new demand source, new jobs and a reduction in dependency on
fossil fuels. It may boost a revival of endogenous growth in Europe
The Reference Scenario in “Latin Arc”
Territorial aspects of the reference scenario
Regional disparities are likely to increase (two speed growth)
Metro regions will host the advanced activities and R&D
New manufacturing activities, benefiting from technological progress, will also
locate in metro and second rank cities;
Territorial impact in Latin Arc
Differentiated impact, because of the heterogeneous regional structure;
Benefit for Metropolitan areas with advanced functions;
After recovery, moderate progress in tourism.
Annual average GDP growth rates 2006 - 25
Average Provincial Growth Rate
All countries
- All provinces
- Spanish provinces
- French provinces
- Italian provinces
Latin Arc Provinces
- All provinces
- Urban provinces
- Agglomerated provinces
among which Mega provinces
- Rural provinces
- Coastal provinces
Barcelona
Hérault
Torino
Reference Pro-active Re-active Diff Pro ref Diff Rea ref
1,96
2,06
1,99
1,83
2,94
3,02
2,97
2,83
0,98
1,02
1,02
0,89
0,98
0,96
0,97
1,00
-0,98
-1,04
-0,97
-0,95
1,79
1,76
1,89
2,02
1,15
1,80
2,89
1,58
2,22
2,77
2,55
3,01
3,17
1,82
2,85
3,96
2,38
3,32
0,84
0,80
0,97
1,12
-0,04
0,87
1,88
0,61
1,41
0,98
0,79
1,11
1,14
0,67
1,05
1,07
0,80
1,10
-0,95
-0,96
-0,93
-0,90
-1,19
-0,93
-1,02
-0,96
-0,81
GDP growth rates in the Reference Scenario 06-25
Difference between Pro-active and Refer. scenarios
Fine tuning on the Reference Scenario
General policy suggestions
-crucial support to the development of renewable energy sources and green
technologies;
-increase the stock and the diffusion of knowledge;
-increase retention of young people, especially in rural areas;
-support second rank cities and promote networks of smaller cities and towns;
- integrate the Latin Arc with new and efficient nfrastructure
- favour the development of complementarities and partnerships between the
European Mediterranean regions and countries of the southern and eastern
parts of the Mediterranean Basin.
Policy
suggestions
for the Latin
Arc
Competence poles
Knowledge platforms
Identity platforms
Infrastructure platforms
Barcelona Orbital Rail
Highways of the sea
Infrastructure integration of the Latin Arc
Policy suggestions for Barcelona and Catalunia
Figueres
Vic
Girona
Manresa
Lleida
Sabadell Granollers
Igualada
Terrass
.
Matarò
Martorell a
Vilafrancad.P.
Barcelona
Reus
Tarragona
Tortosa
Vilanova i la G.
Orbital
New railway lines
Existing railway
lines
Knowledge poles
and Knowledge
platforms
Identity platforms
Legend
Annual Average GDP Growth Rate 2005-2025
The Proactive Scenario
0,00000-3,529694
3,529695 - 3,848386
3,848387 - 3,953337
3,953338 - 5,188075
THANKS
Many thanks for your attention!
Roberto Camagni
BEST – Department of Building,
Environment, Science and Technology
Politecnico di Milano
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133
MILANO
tel: +39 02 2399.2744 - 2745
fax: +39 02 2399.2710
[email protected]
www.economiaterritoriale.it