Transcript Vision 2030

Kenya
Population Factors and the
National Vision
Presenter:
Photo by Felix Masi
2
Outline
Outline
1
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
2
Population and Social and Economic Development
3
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
4
Policy Response
3
Vision
Kenya
National Vision
Vision 2030
“To transform Kenya into a globally
competitive, newly industrializing,
middle-income country and provide
a high quality of life to all of its
citizens in a clean and secure
environment.”
Photo by Chubby Chandru
4
Population
Economy and Society
Photo by Zoriah
How will population growth affect
Kenya’s economic growth and
social development in the coming
decades?
5
Population
Kenya’s Population
1999
28.8 Million
Source: 1999 Census
6
Population
Kenya’s Population
2008
38.3 Million
Source: CBS Population Projections
7
Population
Current Situation
Population Statistics
38 million people (2008)
4.6 births per woman (2008)
23% teens ages 15–19 bear
children
Photo by Felix Masi
Sources: Spectrum; DHS 2003, 2008
40% population under age 15
8
Population
Trend in Fertility
Fertility Rate
Kenya, 1989–2008
8
6.7
6
5.4
4.7
4.9
4.6
1998
2003
2008
4
2
0
1989
1993
Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys
9
Population
Population Pyramid
Age (Years)
Kenya’s Youth Bulge
80+
75–79
70–74
65–69
60–64
55–59
50–54
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
-20%
Male
Female
40% of the
population is
under age 15
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Per cent of the Population
Source: Spectrum
10
Population
82 Million People …
Population Explosion by
2040
Population (Millions)
Under Current Fertility Rate
82
80
64
60
40
65
58
High Fertility
Low Fertility
50 48
38
20
0
2008
Source: Spectrum
2020
2030
2040
11
Population
65 Million People
Demographic Transition
By Assuming a Decline in Fertility
Population (Millions)
82
80
64
60
40
65
58
High Fertility
50 48
Low Fertility
38
20
0
2008
Source: Spectrum
2020
2030
2040
12
Outline
Outline
1
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
2
Population and Social and Economic Development
3
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
4
Policy Response
13
Development
Africa can learn
from East Asia on
economic growth
14
Economic Benefit
Slower population growth
increases the opportunity for
economic growth.
Sources: Population Matters: Demographic
Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty
in the Developing World and Population
Dynamics and Economic Development:
Filling the Research Gaps.
Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others
A decline in fertility can be a way
out of poverty for many families.
15
Development
Success Story
1,600
1462
8
6.4
1,200
6
800
4
Fertility Rate
GDP Per Capita (US$2000)
Thailand, An Asian Tiger
2.2
400
317
2
0
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008
16
Development
Declining Fertility
The “Asian Miracle”
Population quality versus size
Better education
More investment in modern agriculture
More savings and investment, lower
dependency ratios
Photo by Uggboy
17
Outline
Outline
1
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
2
Population and Social and Economic Development
3
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
4
Policy Response
18
Social Pillar
“Kenya’s journey towards
widespread prosperity involves
the building of a just and
cohesive society that enjoys
equitable social development
in a clean and secure
environment.”
Photo by Center for Communications
Programs
Vision 2030
19
Population
Population Growth
Population (Millions)
Two Scenarios
100
82
80
65
64
58
60
50 48
Low Fertility
38
40
High Fertility
20
0
2008
Source: Spectrum
2020
2030
2040
20
Education
Education
Vision 2030
Photos by Zoriah; Center for Communications Programs
“The education and
training of all Kenyans is
fundamental to the
success of the Vision.”
21
Education
Primary Students
Primary Students (Millions)
Fewer Students, More Resources Available per Child
14.1
15
11.2
12
9.1 8.7
9
9.0
8.9
High Fertility
Low Fertility
7
6
3
0
2008
Source: Spectrum
2020
2030
2040
22
Education
Primary Teachers
Teachers Needed (Thousands)
Fewer Students, Fewer Teachers Required
450
398
360
316
267257
270
258
255
High Fertility
Low Fertility
180
172
90
0
2008
2020
Sources: Spectrum; Ministry of Education
2030
2040
23
Education
Primary Education
Expenditures
Expenditures ($US Millions)
Savings with Slower Population Growth
250
222
High Fertility
200
176
Low Fertility
150
144
143
100
Cumulative
Savings
US$772
Million
50
0
2008
2016
2024
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
2032
2040
24
Education
Better Education
With Less Population Pressure
More resources for training and
teacher incentives
More resources for classrooms and
educational material
Smaller classrooms and better
learning environments
2: Achieve universal primary education
Photo by Rebecca Mbuy_Brown
Progress on MDGs
25
Health
Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others (top) and the Department for International Development (DFID) (bottom)
Health
Kenya’s vision for health is
to provide “equitable and
affordable health care at
the highest affordable
standard” to her citizens.
Vision 2030
26
Health
Nurses
Nurses Needed (Thousands)
Less Pressure on Health Providers
80
70
55
60
56
50
High Fertility
43 42
40
Low Fertility
32
20
0
2008
2020
2030
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
2040
27
Health
Health Centres
Health Centres Needed
Less Pressure on Health Facilities
3,000
2,726
2,134
2,172
1,920
2,000
High Fertility
Low Fertility
1,317 1,273
1,000
769
0
2008
2020
2030
Sources: Spectrum; Health Sector Facts and Figures
2040
28
Health
Health Expenditures
Expenditures (US$ Billions)
Increase in Savings
3
2.7
High Fertility
Low Fertility
2.2
2
Cumulative
Savings
US$500 million
2.2
2.0
1
0.34
0
2008
2016
2024
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
2032
2040
29
Health
Birth Spacing
Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births
Reduces Infant Deaths
160
134
120
80
62
60
59
24 - 36
36 - 48
48 +
40
0
0 - 24
Months Since Last Birth
Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
30
Health
Improved Health
With Less Population Pressure
Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others (top), Angela Sevin (bottom)
More resources to train staff and
retain staff
Fewer maternal and child deaths
Longer life expectancy
Progress on MDGs
4: Reduce child mortality
5: Reduce maternal mortality
6: Combat HIV/AIDS and malaria
31
Water
Sustainability
Photo by Felix Masi
The Vision for the water and
sanitation sector is “to ensure
water and improved sanitation
availability and access to all
by 2030.”
32
Water
Water Consumption
Water Consumption (Billion Liters)
Less Consumption with Lower Fertility
2
1.6
1.3
1.0
1
High Fertility
0.9
Low Fertility
0.6 0.5
0.1
0
2008
2020
2030
Sources: Spectrum; Water Services Strategy
2040
33
Urbanisation
Urbanisation
Photo by Mark Auer
“Kenya has so far been
unable to plan adequately
in order to accommodate
her increasing urban
population. It must now
do so under the Vision
2030.”
34
Urbanisation
Urban Population
Urban Population (Millions)
Urbanisation Trend
57
60
High Fertility
Low Fertility
45
40
20
10
0
2008
2016
Sources: Spectrum; Vision 2030
2024
2032
2040
35
Photo by Felix Masi
Rapid growth puts
increasing pressure
on urban
infrastructure.
36
Urbanisation
Urban Housing
New Housing Units Required (Millions)
Fewer New Units Required by 2040
15
10
High Fertility
Low Fertility
14
10
5
0
High Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; KDHS 2003
Low Fertility
37
Economy
Economic Pillar
Vision 2030
Photos by K Burns, Leila Darabi, K Burns (top to bottom)
“To maintain sustained
economic growth of 10% per
annum until 2030.”
38
Economy
Six key sectors have been
identified to deliver the economic
growth envisaged under the
economic pillar: tourism,
agriculture, manufacturing,
wholesale and retail trade,
business process outsourcing
(BPO), and financial services.
Photos by Meaduva, David Blume, Angeli Kirk (top to bottom)
Economy
39
Economy
Economic View
GDP Growth Rate (%)
GDP Growth Rate
8
6.1
6
4.9
4
1.7
2
0.6
0
2002
Source: Kenya Vision 2030
2004
2006
2008
40
Economy
GDP Per Capita
Constant Year 2008 US$
10% Growth Rate
9,000
8,156
6,497
6,000
High Fertility
3,200
Low Fertility
3,556
3,000
1,578 1,632
785
0
2008
Source: Spectrum
2020
2030
2040
41
Economy
Better Economy
With Less Population Pressure
More funding for social sector
Photos by Karl Mueller, Hodag, The World Bank (top to bottom)
Greater disposable family income
for education and health
Lower youth unemployment
Greater stability
Progress on MDGs
1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
43
Agriculture and
the Environment
“Agriculture is a
mainstay of the Kenyan
economy.”
Photo by Felix Masi
Vision 2030
44
Agriculture
Food Requirements
Maize Required (Billion Tonnes)
Less Food Required at Lower Fertility Rate
10
High Fertility
8.0
Low Fertility
8
6.4
6.3
6
4
4.9 4.7
5.6
Actual Production
3.6
2
0
2008
2020
2030
2040
* Assumes consumption per capita stays at 2007 levels
Sources: Spectrum; MOA: Economic Review of Agriculture
45
Agriculture
Issue #1
Land Fragmentation
Higher Population, Less Land per Holder
Land holdings divided among
more family members
Photo by The Curt CarnemarkWorld Bank
Lower productivity from small
farms—less food security
Less food per person
46
Issue #2
Environmental
Degradation
Higher Population Leads to Overuse
Lower Productivity
Overexploitation
Deforestation
Less soil fertility
Photo by Chubby Chandru
Erosion
47
Agriculture
Better
Agriculture
Less Pressure on Resources Used
to …
Modernise
Fertilise for higher yields
Improve family nutrition
Reduce environmental degradation
Progress on MDGs
Photo by The World Bank
1: Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger
7: Ensure environmental sustainability
48
Political Pillar
Vision 2030
Photo by Zoriah
“… moving to the future
as one nation.”
49
Youth Bulge
Population and Stability
Conflict and Equity
Links between population growth
and stability
Conflict over resources
Equity issues
Research has found that:
Youth bulges and armed conflict are
strongly correlated
Photo by Eirasinn
50
Economy
New Job Requirements
New Jobs Required (Thousands)
Fewer Jobs Needed
977
1,000
High Fertility
750
Low Fertility
461
500
534
250
0
2008
2016
2024
Sources: Spectrum; World Development Indicators
2032
2040
51
Outline
Outline
1
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
2
Population and Social and Economic Development
3
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
4
Policy Response
52
Family Planning
Family Planning
Photo by Gunnar Salvarsson
Almost 1 in 2 births
are unintended or
arrive too soon
Kenya
Primary factor to lower growth
Many women want to delay or
limit births but are not using
family planning.
Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
53
Family Planning
Family Planning
Embedded in the Culture
46% of married women of
reproductive age use family
planning.
Photo by Kitui
Source: 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
54
Family Planning
Trends in Family Planning
Percent
Use Over Time
50
46
40
39
39
1998
2003
33
30
27
20
10
0
1989
1993
Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys
2008
55
Family Planning
Family Planning
Percent
Unmet Need
1 in 4 women want to space or limit
births but are not using family planning
40%
30%
28%
27%
25%
22%
20%
13%
10%
0%
Malawi
Zambia
Kenya
Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
56
Outline
Outline
1
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
2
Population and Social and Economic Development
3
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
4
Policy Response
57
Policy
Unmet Need
High Demand in Kenya
25% of married
women want to space
or limit births but are
not using family
planning.
25
Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
58
Conclusions
FP and the National Vision
Improving access to and use of
high-quality, affordable FP services:
… resulting in lower fertility and
a lower rate of population
growth…
… thereby contributing to
social and economic
development and
achievement of the national
vision
Photo by Wendy McNaughton
… will help satisfy unmet need…
59
Policy
Why and How to Act
Cost of Inaction Increases with Time
ISSUE
OPPORTUNITY
READINESS
There is high population growth, an unbalanced age
distribution, and high unmet need for family planning
46% of women already use family planning
Potential for increased use is large (25% unmet
need)
Political will is present
Service networks are established and developing
ACTIONS
Increase funding for family planning
Ensure the availability of family planning commodities
Expand access via community-based distribution and
public and private clinics
Improve information, education, and communication
around family planning
60
Kenya
Population Factors and the National Vision
Support for this presentation was provided by the
USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1
Thank You
Photo by Zoriah
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