Transcript Lebanon`s GHG Profile

Republic
of
Lebanon
CDM Investors Forum
UNEP-RISO, CD4CDM Project
Apex-Conseil, Jerba-Tunisia, 22-24 Sept 2004
Lebanon’s GHG Profile
Matilda El-Khoury, UNDP Project Manager
United Nations Development Programme
Introduction
•
Lebanon Ratified the Climate
Change Convention in Dec. 1994,
but has not yet ratified the Kyoto
Protocol;
•
The CC Focal Point in Lebanon is
the Ministry of Environment;
•
With respect to CC activities,
Lebanon has effected one
national communication to the
UNFCCC (Base Yr 1994) and has
made one inventory update (Base
Yr 1999); Lebanon has also
launched two GEF funded energy
efficiency projects;
Area: 10,452 Km2
2
Country Background
Population
Forests
3
Country Background
Agriculture
Industry
4
CO2 Index for 1994 and 1999
Year 1994
Year 1999
Population [millions]
3.73
4.13
GDP [millions $]
9136
7980
Fuel Imports [million tons]
4,19
4,96
13,803
16,253
3.7
3.9
Net CO2 Emissions [million tons]
CO2/Capita
• The CO2 emissions increased by 17.8% bet. 1994 and 1999;
• The CO2/Capita increased by 5.4% bet. 1994 and 1999;
5
Emissions Breakdown for 1994 and 1999
Year 1994 (Gg)
Year 1999 (Gg)
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO2
CH4
N2O
Total Energy
11,678.7
1.379
0.1157
14,783.5
1.54
0.141
Industrial Process
1,924.06
0
0
1,916.05
0
0
0
7.979
3.015
0
7.412
2.983
LUCF
200.414
0.253
0.00168
- 445.96
0.295
0.00203
Waste
0
42.804
0
0
34.8
0
13,803.2
52.415
3.132
16,253.5
44.05
3.126
Agriculture
Total Net
• The Energy sector is the largest contributor of CO2 (85%);
• The Waste sector is the largest contributor of CH4 (83%);
• The Agricultural sector is the largest contributor of N2O (96%);
6
CO2 Breakdown for 1994 and 1999
14,000
1999 CO2 breakdown:
• 59% energy* sector
• 27% Transport sector
12,000
11,669
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,584
4,000
• 11% Ind. Processes
• -3% LUCF
1,916
2,000
0
-2,000
Energy Sector
Transport
Sector
Industrial
Processes
-446
LUCF
9,000
1994 CO2 breakdown:
8,000
• 56% energy* sector
6,000
• 29% Transport sector
4,000
• 14% Ind. Processes
2,000
• 1% LUCF
7,728
7,000
5,000
3,950
3,000
1,924
1,000
200
0
Energy Sector
Transport
Sector
Industrial
Processes
LUCF
7
I - Power Sector: Description
• Jurisdiction: Ministry of
Energy and Water Resources
• Electric Generation:
Public Sector (EDL) 77%;
Private Generation 15%;
Imports from Syria: 8% (850
KWh in 1999)
• EDL: Installed Power 2348
MW; Available Operational
Power 1600 to 1800 MW;
• EDL operates 8 thermal plants
and 5 hydroelectric plants.
The power generation from
hydroelectric dropped from
786 KWh in 1998 to 331 KWh
in 1999;
8
I - Power Sector: Description
• Despite improvements in the
distribution network, power
shortage is still wide spread;
•
The yearly growth in electric
energy demand in Lebanon
over the next 10 years is
estimated to be about 3-5%.
•
Recently the Lebanese
Parliament passed a law to
privatize the generation and
distribution sectors of the
power utility. Accordingly
these sectors will be sold to
private companies, with the
transmission sector kept
under the EDL control and
management.
9
I - Power Sector: Emissions
• In 1999, the electric energy consumption reached 9032 GWh
with corresponding primary energy and electric energy
densities of 0.32 koe/$ and 0.65 kWh/$, respectively. The per
capita electric energy consumption is 2.42 MWh/year.
• The electric power sector is one of the main sources of GHG
emissions. In1994, this sector has contributed around 30% of all
CO2 emissions and 33% in 1999.
Emissions Index
Year 1994
Yr 1999
Population [millions]
3.725
4.13
GDP [millions $]
9136
7980
CO2 emissions [million tons]
4.14
5.36
CO2/capita
1.11
1.29
10
I - Power Sector: Mitigation Potential
The Mitigation
scenarios
assessed
include:
 Improving
supply mix
through
renewable
energy (<10%)
 Fuel
substitution by
natural gas
CO2
1994-2004
2005-2040
Demand growth Rate
4%
6%
39,644
741,450
1,200,870
Mitigation Scenario 1 5%
Solar (2005-2010)
10% Solar (2010-2040)
711,498
1150002
Mitigation Scenario 2
Natural Gas (as of 2005)
624,738
949,878
Baseline
The assessment revealed that Fuel substitution by natural gas can
provide emissions reduction by 117 million tons of CO2 and 251
million tons of CO2 for demand growth of 4% and 6%, respectively;
and the improvement of supply mix through renewable solar
energy (<10%) can provide around 30 million tons of CO2
emissions reduction.
11
II - Transport Sector: Description
Land Transport
• Fleet size: ~ 1.3 million registered
vehicles, 75% of which are cars;
• Fleet age: ~ 70% of the vehicles are
> 15 yrs old;
• Car ownership rate: ~ 3
persons/car;
• Railway Transport: Non-operable;
• Public Transport: 38,000 vehicles
(taxis, buses and mini-vans)
• Reliance on Public Transport: Low
• Road Network: 22,000 Km (of which
15% are international roads);
• Road Network Jurisdiction:
• 30% classified → MPWT; 70% non
classified → MOM;
12
II - Transport Sector: Description
Air Transport
• Total No. of Flights: 27,878
• Total No. of Passengers:
2,222,344 – Target: 6 million
passengers
• Freight: 52,439 Tons
Sea Transport
• Four Sea Ports: Beirut,
Tripoli, Sydon, Sour;
• Beirut Sea Port: docking of >
2,800 ships;
13
II - Transport Sector: Emissions
•
The
Largest
Emissions
Contributor
in the
Transport
sector is
gasoline;
14
II - Transport Sector: Emissions
• The overall import of transport related fuels increased by 12.7%
between 1994 and 1999;
• The CO2 emissions increased by 15.7% between 1994 and 1999;
• Leaded gasoline fuel was the main fuel used for land transport
until 2001, when the Government introduced cost incentives, and
starting July 2002, leaded fuel became officially banned.
Emissions Index
Year 1994
Yr 1999
Population [millions]
3.725
4.13
GDP [millions $]
9136
7980
1,429,619
1,611,157
CO2 emissions [million tons]
3,996
4,584
Non-CO2 emissions [million tons]
0,483
0,530
CO2/capita
1.07
1.11
CO2/GDP [g/$ of GDP]
437
574
Transport fuel import [tons]
15
II - Transport Sector: Mitigation potential
The mitigation scenarios
assessed include:
• Introduction of hybrid electric
vehicles (<10%)
• Introduction of mass
transport system
16
III - Industrial Sector: Description
•
•
•
•
•
•
Number of Industrial facilities:
22,000
Types of Fuel used: fuel oil and
LPG for boilers and furnaces;
diesel oil for local power
generation.
The 1999 statistics show a 2%
growth over 1994;
The main industries in the
country include: Building
materials industry, food and
beverage industry, clothing and
textile industry, and furniture and
manufactured products.
The total industrial output for
1998 was USD 3,953 billion, and
the value added was about USD
1.707 billion.
The Industrial sector generates
about 188,850 tons of industrial
solid waste annually;
17
III - Industrial Sector: Emissions
•
•
•
In 1994, the energy consumption figures reached about 970
ktoe, releasing 1924 Gg of CO2. The energy for heat and power,
including around 149 ktoe used for local electricity generation,
represents 15.9% of total fuel used in industry;
In 1999, the sector released 1916 Gg of CO2, in addition to other
GHG such as CO (0.003 Gg), and SO2 (1.12 Gg);
In 1994, the Industrial sector was responsible for 14% of all CO2
emissions in Lebanon, and 11% in 1999;
Year 1994
Yr 1999
Population [millions]
3.725
4.13
GDP [millions $]
9136
7980
CO2 emissions [million tons]
1,924
1,916
CO2/capita [kg/capita]
515.5
463.9
Emissions Index
18
III - Industrial Sector: Emissions
CO2
CO
N2O
NMVOC
SO2
HFC’s
CO2
Emissions
from
Industrial
Sources
(1999)
1916 Gg
0.003 Gg
0.013 Gg
106.717 Gg
1.12 Gg
0.252 Gg
Cement
Production,
72.10%
Iron/Steel
Production,
26.99%
Soda Ash
Use, 0.13%
Lime
Production,
0.79%
19
III - Industrial Sector: Mitigation Potential
20
IV – Other sectors
Building sector:
• In 1999, the building sector consumed around 4111 GWH, constituting
38% of the total electricity consumed in the country and around 740
toe, constituting 13.8% of the total amount of fuel consumed in 1999.
The sector has witnessed a growth rate of around 8.5% in electricity
consumption and 5.4% in fuel consumption;
Waste management:
•
Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
makes up about 90% of the total
solid waste generated in Lebanon.
•
Lebanon generated about 1,44
million tons of MSW in 2001 (about
3,940 tons per day), or about 0.92
kg per person per day, and emits
around 78% of all methane emitted.
•
Organic waste is by far the single
largest component of MSW,
representing over 63% of the total
MSW quantity in GBA and slightly
over 50% at the national level.
21
Thank you for your attention
For more information, please contact:
Ministry of Environment: www.moe.gov.lb
UNDP Environment Unit: www.undp.org.lb
UNDP EEB Project: [email protected]
References: Lebanon’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC; Lebanon’s Climate
Change Enabling Activity, phase II; Lebanon’s Master-plan Study.