Transcript Reasons of the Financial Crisis

Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt Vorstand
Answers of IG Metall to
the Financial and Economic Crisis
- Protection of Jobs
- Stabilisation of the Economy
- Shaping the Future
Wilfried Kurtzke
Reasons of the Financial Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
1. Excess of capital caused by a wrong income distribution
2. Deregulation of financial markets
3. Securitization of credits –
a huge risk for financial markets
4. Worldwide imbalances –
the stimulation of speculation
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Reasons of the Financial Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Entwicklung von Sozialprodukt und Finanzvermögen weltweit,
1980-2010 in Billionen US-Dollar
214
Sozialprodukt
Finanzvermögen
Vorstand
Worldwide
development of
Gross
Domestic
Product (GDP)
[blue bar]
140
and
93
64
63,3
44,5
29,4
10,1
financial capital
[red bar]
31,7
12
1980
1995
2000
2005
2010*
Quelle: McKinsey Quarterly, January 2007, Mapping the global capital markets, S.8
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Economic Framework
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Cyclical decline
Financial market crisis influences the producing economy
Too high dependence of foreign trade
Weak domestic economy
Result:
massive collapse of foreign demand
lead to a heavy recession in Germany
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Economy Faces Deep Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
The largest decline of the GDP for 80 years
gross domestic product, annual percentage change
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, alle Zahlen vor 1992 w egen diverser statistischer Änderungen nur bedingt
vergleichbar, Zahlen für 2009 und 2010 Frühjahrsprognose der Institute
Grafik: IG Metall
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German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Gross Domestic Product,
2000=100, seasonally adjusted
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
1.
VJ
05
2.
VJ
05
3.
VJ
05
4.
VJ
05
1.
VJ
06
2.
VJ
06
3.
VJ
06
4.
VJ
06
1.
VJ
07
2.
VJ
07
3.
VJ
07
4.
VJ
07
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt
Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden)
1.
VJ
08
2.
VJ
08
3.
VJ
08
4.
VJ
08
1.
VJ
09
2.
VJ
09
Grafik : IG Metall
09-10-01
6
German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
The sharpest decline of GDP for 80
years
gross domestic product, annual percentage change
Forecast
3,2
2,0
2,0
3,0
1,2
1,1
0,0
98
99
00
01
02
+1,2
2,5
1,3
0,8
-0,2
03
to
-4,9 -0,5
to
-6,5
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognosen der Institute im Frühjahr/Sommer 2009
Grafik: IG Metall
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German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Aggregated Components of GDP 2009
Forecast
annual percentage change
-6,5
Gross domestic product
1,7 Public consumption
0,2 Private consumption
-3,7
-17,8
-22,0
Building investments
Exports
Investment in new equipment
Quelle: IMK, Juli 2009
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Grafik: IG Metall
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8
Crisis Reaches Labour Market
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Rising Unemployment
annual percentage change
7,9
5,0
7,9
8,6
5,3
2,2
-1,8
-4,7
-8,9
-11,6
-12,7
Okt 08 Nov 08 Dez 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mrz 09 Apr 09 Mai 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09
Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit
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Grafik: IG Metall
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Crisis Reaches Labour Market
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Short-time workers
1.246.618
1.076.160
572.217
270.472
70.983
Okt 08
130.133
Nov 08
Dez 08
Jan 09
Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit
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Feb 09
Mrz 09
Grafik: IG Metall
09-10-01
10
A Sharp Decline of Orders
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Orders in different branches organized by
the IG Metall
Change July 2009/08 in percent
Maschinenbau
Bekleidungsindustrie
Elektr. Ausrüstungen
Metallerzeugnisse
-40,7
-32,4
-29,5
-21,7
Metall- und Elektroindustrie
-21,7
Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung
-16,8
Textilindustrie
-16,5
Automobilindustrie
DV, Elektronik, Optik
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Darstellung ohne sonstigen Fahrzeugbau
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-15,7
-6,4
Grafik: IG Metall
09-10-01
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Production Collapses Overall
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Production collapses in all branches organized by the IG Metall
Change July 2009/08 in percent
Maschinenbau
Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung
Luft-, Wasser-, Schienenfahrzeuge
DV, Elektronik, Optik
-31,5
-28,4
-26,4
-25,2
Elektrische Ausrüstungen
-24,5
Metall- und Elektroindustrie
-24,5
Metallerzeugnisse
Automobilindustrie
-23,5
-20,7
Textilindustrie
Bekleidungsindustrie
Möbelindustrie
Holzgewerbe
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt
Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden)
-15,3
-14,1
-11,9
-10,0
Grafik: IG Metall
09-10-01
12
Economy is Going Through the
Trough
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Orders in metalworking industry
Index: 2005 = 100
130
calendar and seasonally
adjusted
120
110
100
90
original data
80
July 09/ Jun 09: + 3,7%
July 09/ July 08: -21,7%
70
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt
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2007
2008
2009
Grafik: IG Metall
09-10-01
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No dismissals –
the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
 As an answer to the crises in November 2008
IG Metall released seven points in order
to protect employment and to stabilise the economy
1. No dismissals
2. Protection of temporary working persons
3. Corporate financing must be guaranteed
(by banks and the government)
4. Stabilising private demand by „cash for clunkers“ (2500.- Euro for an at least 10year-old junk car)
5. Stabilising private demand by „consumption cheques“
6. Public Future Fund „Work - Education - Environment“
7. Increase of participation of workers and employees
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No dismissals –
the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
Still facing the crises in March 2009
IG Metall created another action program
Leaving the crises actively behind –
united for good working and living conditions
1.
Protection of employment in the producing economy
2.
More democracy in the economy, i.e.
more participation for the working class
3.
A stronger regulation of financial markets
4.
The costs and burden of the crises should be paid by the wealthy
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Anticyclical policy of the government
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
The government had to act and must still act in order to stabilise the
economy. The government acted unassertively. But by taking off the
ideological blinkers the government decided to switch to an anti-cyclical
economic policy. So it prevented a worse economic development.
An improved regulation of “short-time work” helped to reduce the rise of
unemployment.
“cash for clunkers / junk cars” strengthened car sales.
Tax- and duty-reductions are not helpful to stimulate economic growth.
Instead: More public investment is the better way to generate economic
growth. Especially here we need stronger efforts.
Annually eight to nine billions Euro are much to less.
All in all the economic programs of the government are created not big
enough and come much too late. The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)
estimates the impulses for growth of the whole package of measures only at
0.6 percentage points in this year.
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Assumptions of Economic Trends
Wirtschaft
Technologie
Umwelt
Vorstand
GDP-Forecast 2009 bis 2013
4 possible trends
2008 = 100
102,0
S 4: high grow th(101,1)
100,0
S 3: low grow th
(98,2)
98,0
96,0
S 2: stagnation (96,2)
94,0
92,0
90,0
S 1: depression (91,1)
88,0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt. Ab 2009: Szenarien IG Metall
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