Transcript Central Asia is not a homogenous region

AfT Roadmap for SPECA
Ministerial Meeting, Baku 1-2 December, 2010
Social and Economic Challenges
in SPECA Countries
Balázs Horváth,
Practice Leader,
UNDP, Europe and the CIS
Bratislava Regional Centre
Bratislava, 20 May 2010
Central Asia: Key region in Eurasia
Central Asia is not a homogenous region
While there is common inheritance…
 Soviet legacy left many difficult challenges
 Geography: all Central Asian countries are landlocked
 Russia only large market with transport access
 China, India: farther, transport routes inadequate
 To the closest EU countries is about 3,000 km
There are significant national differences
 Size (area, population, GDP)
 Resource endowment
 Income level
 Market reforms
 Economic and political stability
The effect of the global economic
crisis ranges from large to none…
25
2008
2009
2010 est
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Islamic
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Republic of
Afghanistan
Kyrgyz
Republic
Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010
But the broader impact on HD may be
substantial, lasting, hitting mostly the poor
• Paper by 3 authors in BRC—on ECIS region as a whole
• Panel estimate: income elasticities of 12 HD indicators
29 ECIS countries, 1989-2008
–
–
–
–
–
–
poverty rates,
unemployment,
incidence of diseases,
under-five mortality,
life expectancy,
crime rates.
• Then: projecting HD indicators using GDP forecasts
Potential Impact of the Crisis
Male life expectancy at birth, years
65.0
64.9
64.8
64.7
64.6
64.5
64.4
64.3
64.2
64.1
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2000
64.0
Potential Impact of the Crisis
Poverty $5 at 2005 prices
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2000
25.0
The region has huge opportunities…
• Huge natural resource endowments
* oil, gas production already considerable
* large reserves remaining
* other mineral wealth
* massive hydropower , solar & wind potential
• Young population, generally good education levels
 Potential for:
* dynamic labour force
* competitive economy
* demographic dividends, rather than time-bomb
• In past decade: expanding fast
• Growth economies now closer: China, India, Turkey,
each other…
2000
2,043
Kyrgyz Republic
Source: World Development Indicators
14,706
Per-capita GDP, in US$, PPP terms, 2008
Russian Federation
10,469
12000
Kazakhstan
8,101
10000
Azerbaijan
6,169
8000
Turkmenistan
5,712
6000
China
2,455
1,963
Sudan
Uzbekistan
1,939
Nigeria
0
1,761
4000
Tajikistan
1,019
949
16000
Afghanistan
Rwanda
…but in some SPECA countries,
per capita GDP remains very low
14000
To fulfil potential and to reach
sustainable development:
regional cooperation needed
To promote trade and investment:
Harmonized, predictable regulatory and legal framework
stable economic growth for all people & all territories
new, well-paying and sustainable jobs
poverty reduction, social inclusion
To promote joint interests, better manage/handle
shared water, energy and environmental resources (e.g. Aral Sea)
common infrastructure
common challenges: environment, health, disaster preparedness
labour migration
illicit drug trafficking; crime and terrorism.
In focus at this Conference:
Trade and Human Development
Trade can be a powerful source
of economic growth & HD
 It can bolster broadly based growth &
progress toward MDGs;
 Better resource allocation (efficiency,
job gains) can raise growth and lead to
poverty reduction & HD.
 Final note: growth necessary but not
sufficient for HD (GHDR).
Thank you for your attention…
[email protected]
United Nations Development Programme,
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States,
Bratislava Regional Centre
http://europeandcis.undp.org