Transcript KennedyGroup2

Paul Kennedy
Preparing for the Twenty-First
Century
Chapter 9
India And China
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Chapter Highlights
 Demographics
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Essay on Population, Thomas Robert Malthus 1798
 Military
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India & China as major players in the future.
 Education
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Key advancements and major concerns.
 Politics
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Different systems & obsticals, same problems
 Industrialization
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Advancements in past and needs for the future.
 Environment
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Current world concens and how they will grow.
 Agriculture
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Ability to keep up with demand and options.
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The Peoples Republic of China
 Demographics over-shadow all other
considerations in China dealing with preparations
for the 21st Century.
 Population in 1993 was 1.135 billion.
 It is estimated that China’s population will grow to
1.5 billion by 2025.
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China’s per capita
Gross National Product
 As of 1987, China’s per capita GNP was only
$297 (U.S.)
 It is projected that if China’s per capita GNP were
to grow to $5000 (U.S.), China’s Economy would
be the largest in the world.
 Suggestion that if can sustain average annual
growth rate of 5% for several decades, China
would be assured of increasing per capita GNP
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Demographics of The Peoples
Republic of China
 China developed an aggressive form of population
control.
 One child per family policy
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it is hoped to level off the population at 1.2 billion by
2000 and decline to 750-950 million
rigorusly enforced in its early phase
By mid-1980s authorities adopted more concilitory
stance due to unpopularity
exceedingly unpopular with the Chinese people
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Reasons for Poor Popularity
 Firm belief that having more children will increase
the work force and productivity
 this is having a negative effect because the
marginal productivity of each worker is less
than the extra needs for each new worker
 Fear of not having someone to support them in
their old age
 Cultural problems associated with birth control.
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Projected Problems
 food shortages
 over use of energy
 environmental concerns
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4th largest contributor to the green
house effect
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The Environment
 China is already the 4th largest contributor to the
green house effect.
 As China develops, environmental destruction will
only elevate.
 Any change in temperature or precipitation could
spell disaster for China’s “rain based” agricultural
system.
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The Technology Dilemma
 Double-edged Sword of Automation
 Possibility of high unemployment due to
robotics and automation in agricultural and
manufacturing businesses
 Industrialization attractive for potential of
increasing per capita income and reducing
population growth
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Industrialization
 China will need new technologies to advance as an
economic power
 1950s- emphasis was placed on central planning
and heavy industry
 Late 1970s- economic liberalization policies
 By 1989, 225,000 privately run companies in
coastal provinces employing millions
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China’s Dependency on
Agriculture
 Estimates are that land in China can sustain between
750 and 950 million people
 Although China contains 20% of the world’s
population, it owns only 7% of the farm land
 Much of that 7% is poor quality farm land
 Some 80% of Chinese Laborers are somehow involved
in agriculture.
 If agriculture stagnates, it will drag the entire economy
with it.
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Education in the PRC
 The PRC educational system has been marred by
sporadic and uneven levels of access at all levels
 As a result, there is a very low ratio of skilled to
unskilled workers
 Almost 220 million adults are illiterate, 75% of
them are women
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The Military
 Despite nation-wide social distresses, China
possesses a formidable military with 2.3 million
regular troops, intercontinental ballistic
capabilities, and a degree of nuclear ability
 This is largely the result of local disputes
 This overkill in military production limits
consumer production possibilities
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Politics in the PRC
 4th largest trading nation - expected to quadruple
its GNP by early next century
 Bureaucracy is still strong
 Government very skeptical of communications
revolution and global financing
 Questions of retaining national unity to sustain the
drive to prosperity
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Demographic Situation in India
 Population size has the most critical implications
for India and China.
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Second most populous country (853 Million)
Together with China, 37% of world population.
Estimated population of 1.5 billion by 2025.
 Life Expectancy has grown from 32.5 years in
1950 to 58 years in the late 80’s.
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Improved health care
Improved sanitation
General improvement in standard of living.
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Population Problems
 India has been unable to convince families to limit
their size.
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High rate of illiteracy
Desire to bear children to enhance family income.
Mistrust of officialdom and birth control centers
Inefficient and dangerous contraceptive devices.
Backlash against Gandhi’s sterilization program.
 Much greater cultural and religious diversity produces different responses.
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Population Problems Cont’d
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Fertility rate of 4.3 compared to China’s 2.4
Average annual increase of 16.8 million per year.
40% of population under 15 years of age.
Half of India’s 850M live in poverty.
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Landless, unemployed, undernourished, uneducated and
ill-sheltered.
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Indian Agriculture
 “Green Revolution”
 1960+
 improvements affected many crops
 increased yields in irrigated semiarid areas
 introduction of dwarf wheat
 Food supplies risen sharply over past few decades
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normally has sufficient stocks to meet drought and
famine conditions
rice and other foodstuffs sometimes exported
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Indian Agriculture Cont’d
 Biotech revolution in agriculture appears to offer
promise
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as productivity increases of “green revolution” begin to
diminish and little suitable additional land available,
and threat of pop. Growth eclipsing food output, govt.
of India needs to encourage all possible ways to
improve agricultural yields
biotechnology, including DNA-type genetic
engineering, may prevent feared outcomes (e.g.
malnutrition, famine, increased mortality rates, social
discontent)
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Indian Agriculture Cont’d
 India currently committing large resources to
biotechnology research and application from crop
breeding, to animal embryo transfers
 India possesses many scientists in these fields and
experimentation is not as capital-intensive as other
high-tech ventures
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The Industrial Situation in India
 India must move economy into manufacturing and
services to increase the per capita income and
generate employment.
 Manufacturing sector not growing quick enough.
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1950 manufacturing was 10.3% of the GDP.
1978/79 manufacturing was 15.8% of the GDP.
1989 manufacturing was a mere 16.1% of the GDP
compared to Korea’s 31.6% of GDP.
 India needs foreign technology, expertise and
goods and services, BUT this worsens the account
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deficit.
Industrial Situation Cont’d
 India created own industrial revolution
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encouraged by leaders to strengthen defense base,
reduce dependence upon foreign manufacturing, and
enhance national income
like Latin American nations, chose to replace imports
with its own heavy industrial products; iron, steel,
cement, locomotives, automobiles, shipbuilding,
defense-related production, engineering, and machine
tools all supported by the state
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Industrial Situation Cont’d
 Transportation, mining, and utilities were taken into
public sector
 Others given subsidies , very high tariff protection,
and government orders
 Result: emergence of numerous publicly owned
corporate giants in steel, aeronautics, engineering,
and petrochemicals
 Where industrialization was not possible by internal
means, foreign aid was encouraged, for example,
Soviet help in building steel plants
 In this was, India planned to become an industrial 23
giant
Automation
 India’s move into area of robotics
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modernization led to entrepreneurs, electronics firms,
and other businesses possessing technical know-how,
financial capacity, and official support to adopt
automated production
currently has machine-tool industry which is foundation
for any serious move into robotics
many trained mathematicians and engineers
eager to emulate East Asia’s venture into higher
technologies
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Automation cont’d
 Future: if better infrastructure is in place and
quality control assured, India looks to be a
medium-sized player in robotics
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India’s Environmental problems:
 Industrialization and overpopulation will have
serious consequences for India’s natural
environment.
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India is the 5th largest contributor of greenhouse gases.
50% of land subject to ecological degradation.
60% deforestation around New Delhi in last 10 years.
 India’s dilemma: The only way to decrease
poverty is to increase industrialization, which
could affect the environment even further.
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Education Concerns for India
 Adult literacy only 43%
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50% males are literate
25%females
 200 million illiterate adults
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Rural India has no traditional emphasis on education.
Socioeconomic obstacles.
Disproportionate spending on education. - More needs
to be spent on primary and secondary where the
majority of the population would benefit.
 Difficulty in allocating 3 to 4% of GDP.
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Military Influences
 Nuclear proliferation between India and
neighboring China and Pakistan.
 Ambition to be a regional superpower.
 Allocation of resources to military spending rather
than to export led growth.
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Finances, scientific expertise, engineering, research and
development are all examples of resources devoted to
military applications.
 Defense is a non-productive investment.
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The Political Dilemma for India
 The future for India will be heavily affected by the
quality of political leadership.
 Does India possess the national unity and purpose
to meet the challenges of a changing global
environment?
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25 distinct ethnic groups.
Stratified caste system
Enormous gaps in the distribution of wealth.
Entrenched trade unions
Hindu, Muslim and Sikh religions
Excessive factionalism in party politics
Political corruption and gov’t favoritism.
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Conclusion
Outcomes For India and China
 Effects of the Malthusian trap
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Poverty
Malnutrition
 Not Just A India/China Problem
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“The only logical solution remaining,…is for the
developed world to try to apply its capital, technology,
and brainpower to help these two giant populations
escape from poverty without harm to themselves and
the planet…”p.192
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THE END
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