Transcript Slide 1
The Pound Sterling Adam Celine Eric Spencer Weekly GBP Exchange Rate 6/3/2009 5/3/2009 4/3/2009 3/3/2009 2/3/2009 1/3/2009 12/3/2008 11/3/2008 10/3/2008 9/3/2008 8/3/2008 7/3/2008 6/3/2008 5/3/2008 4/3/2008 3/3/2008 2/3/2008 1/3/2008 12/3/2007 11/3/2007 10/3/2007 9/3/2007 8/3/2007 7/3/2007 6/3/2007 5/3/2007 4/3/2007 3/3/2007 2/3/2007 1/3/2007 Exchange Rate & Interest Rate 120 100 80 60 USD/GBP Bank of England 40 20 0 6/3/2009 5/3/2009 4/3/2009 3/3/2009 2/3/2009 1/3/2009 12/3/2008 11/3/2008 10/3/2008 9/3/2008 8/3/2008 7/3/2008 6/3/2008 5/3/2008 4/3/2008 3/3/2008 2/3/2008 1/3/2008 12/3/2007 11/3/2007 10/3/2007 9/3/2007 8/3/2007 7/3/2007 6/3/2007 5/3/2007 4/3/2007 3/3/2007 2/3/2007 1/3/2007 Interest Rate Differential 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 USD/GBP 1.5 Differential 1 0.5 0 Bank of England June 4th was last Bank of England Meeting -Decided to keep rate at .5% (has been at .5% since April 2009) The next meeting is July 9th. Trend Effect on Interest Rate “Sterling had appreciated by 4% on the month and by 12% since of the start of year. The appreciation could have been caused by a correction to excessive pessimism around the start of the year about the United Kingdom’s prospects relative to its major trading partners.” Potential Increase Consumption was estimated to have fallen by around 1% in both 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q1. Since then, however, the available surveys on consumer spending, together with reports from the Bank’s regional Agents, had suggested an easing in the pace of decline. Potential Increase Bank of England (continued) Housing market activity had picked up. The number of loan approvals for house purchase had increased by 8% in April and the preview of the May survey of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed further improvement across most housing market activity indicators, with new buyer enquiries and sales both picking up. Maintain Current Rate Activity indicators for Q2, especially the PMI surveys, suggested that the rate of contraction in the global and UK economies had slowed, and there were signs of improving business confidence. There had also been signs that the second-quarter decline in consumption would be smaller than the Committee had previously anticipated. Potential Increase Federal Reserve Testimony given by Ben Bernanke on June 3rd Trend Effect on Interest Rate “The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last fall real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an average annual rate of about 6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year” Potential Increase “Conditions in a number of financial markets have improved since earlier this year, likely reflecting both policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve and other agencies as well as the somewhat better economic outlook. Nevertheless, financial markets and financial institutions remain under stress, and low asset prices and tight credit conditions continue to restrain economic activity.” Potential Increase