Transcript Local Debt Monitor

Interest Rate Monitor
July 7, 2013
Brief Overview
International
MENA Region
Egypt: Treasuries fall while stocks rally after
US: Bond yields spike after a better then expected
jobs report, in anticipation of fewer Fed purchases
the ousting of President Morsi
GCC News Highlights
Eurozone: ECB introduces forward guidance as the
most recent euro crisis seems to be averted
UK: Carney signals that rates will remain low longer
than expected despite upbeat data
GCC interbank rates
Comparative MENA Markets
China: Data continues to be week, as the credit
crunch eases
Markets overview
Major Indices: US stocks gain following the jobs report
Commodities and Currencies: Egypt crisis sends oil
prices high
Central Bank Meeting Calendar
Local Economy
New and analysis
 GDP growth reached 2.6% in Q1 of this
year; concerns arise due to disruption in
Egyptian gas supply
Markets overview
 Amman Stock Exchange
Interest Rate Forecast
 Local Debt Monitor
The Week Ahead
 Prime Lending Rates
2
International
3
Yields soar on positive jobs report, QE tapering expected
•
•
Robust US employment figures sent bond yields soaring
on Friday as the labor market showed it was healthy
enough for the Federal Reserve to slow its $85bn a
month in asset purchases later this year.
The 10-year US government bond yield was up 23bp at
2.73% – the highest since August 2011 – after the US
employment report showed that 195,000 jobs had been
created in June, well ahead of forecasts. Over the week,
the 10-year US yield was up 24bp.
As of July 5
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
2 Years
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
0.03%
0.04%
0.08%
0.40%
1.61%
2.74%
3.71%
1 Week Ago A Month Ago
0.02%
0.04%
0.10%
0.36%
1.41%
2.50%
3.51%
0.04%
0.05%
0.08%
0.29%
1.01%
2.07%
3.23%
4
U.S. hiring beats expectations in June with big job gains
•
The job market made solid improvement last month, sending
signals to markets that the Federal Reserve is on track to start
winding down its bond-buying program in the coming months.
•
The economy added 195,000 new jobs in June, beating
economists' expectations of 155,000 jobs.
•
U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs in June, a sign of consistent
improvement in the labor market that keeps the Federal Reserve
on track to start winding down its bond-buying program in the
coming months.
•
The stronger job growth came alongside sharp revisions showing
that employers added a combined 70,000 more jobs than
previously estimated in April and May, the Labor Department said
Friday. For the past three months, payrolls have increased by
about 196,000 jobs a month.
•
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, obtained by a separate
survey of U.S. households, was unchanged at 7.6% as more people
entered the labor force.
•
Nevertheless, economists say the gains in hiring -- including past
months that were revised higher -- mean the rate should head
lower in the months ahead.
June:
+195,000
5
The jobs report signals that Fed is on track to start pulling
back its stimulus program
•
The report was being watched particularly closely by investors, in
light of recent comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that
caused wild swings in the markets.
•
For the last couple of weeks both stocks and bonds had been
selling off, as investors fretted the Fed may be ending its stimulus
program too early.
•
The latest snapshot of the job market suggests the economy is
withstanding the effects of higher payroll taxes, government
spending cuts and slower growth overseas.
•
The underlying strength of the report and the stretch of gains in
the labor market—employers have added more than 200,000
jobs a month on average in the first half of this year—cemented
expectations that the Fed will start to slow its $85 billion-a-month
bond-buying program at its September meeting.
•
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the program may end
entirely around the time the unemployment rate hits 7%, a
threshold the Fed expects to be reached in mid-2014.
•
Stocks rose slightly and bonds sold off following the news. It
seems that investors are beginning to believe that the economy
actually may be strong enough to grow without the extreme
monetary support.
June:
7.6%
7.0%: Fed target for finishing quantitative easing
6.5%: Fed target for considering rate hikes
6
U.S. manufacturing accelerated in June, another sign that
the US is working itself out of a soft patch
•
America's factories accelerated slightly in June, easing fears of
a deeper U.S. slowdown, but weakness among manufacturers
elsewhere points to the sector's vulnerability around the
globe.
•
The Institute for Supply Management on Monday said its
broad index, in which any reading above 50 indicates
expansion, rose to 50.9 last month from 49 in May.
•
The report showed growth in new orders, production and
inventories, pointing to a fairly solid report confirming that
the US is working its way through the soft patch and that the
bottom for the ISM was likely in May.
•
It is likely that there will be further increases in the ISM in the
coming months.
•
The slight upturn in the U.S. contrasts with much of the rest of
the world. Manufacturing across most of Asia, including
China, weakened in June, while euro zone factory activity
continued to shrink, albeit at a slower pace.
7
Borrowing costs jump early in the week due to renewed
euro crisis concerns , but stabilize later in the week
•
Earlier in the week, borrowing costs in southern
Europe had jumped on concern about the stability of
both Greece and Portugal.
•
The Portuguese government was shaken by the
resignation of two key ministers, while Greece
struggled to convince the EU and IMF that it's able to
meet the terms of its bailout.
•
However, yields on 10-year government bonds fell
back on Friday. The drop was helped along by signs of
progress in both countries and the ECB's commitment
Thursday to keep rates at current levels or even lower
for "an extended period." Portugal's 10-year yield was
back below 7% after spiking to 8%.
•
The German Bund yield rose 8bp on the Friday to
1.73%, leaving it flat over the week.
•
Meanwhile, yields on Spanish and Italian 10-year
bonds fell to 4.66% and 4.42% respectively.
8
ECB surprises market and introduces forward guidance
•
Europe's central bank broke with longstanding tradition by pledging that interest rates will remain at
record lows far into the future. This is a very new way of ECB communication. Previously, Draghi as
well as his predecessors have repeated “we never pre commit”.
•
The strategy shift by the ECB, which has long prided itself for keeping all its options open, came amid a
political crisis in Portugal that threatened to bring down the government of a country largely seen as a
model for Europe's troubled periphery. As of late Thursday, Portugal's coalition government appeared
to have found a way to stay together. But doubts linger about the country's financial health and
political stability.
•
The renewed euro-crisis concerns, combined with a recent rout in global bonds triggered by the
Federal Reserve, raised doubts that the euro bloc would emerge from its recession this year as hoped.
•
The ECB will keep rates where they are, or even lower, for "an extended period," ECB President Mario
Draghi said after the bank's monthly meeting. The ECB held its main policy rate at 0.5%.
•
There was, however, an "extensive discussion" within the ECB's rate board on whether to reduce rates
Thursday, Mr. Draghi said, leaving the door open for a rate cut and negative deposit rate also
continues to be a possibility .
•
The decision to adopt forward guidance was unanimous. It means that even conservative ECB
members such as German central-bank chief Jens Weidmann—who has warned of the dangers of
keeping rates low for too long—saw the benefits.
9
ECB still expects gradual recovery in the coming months
•
Though Mr. Draghi didn't specify how long an "extended period"
may be, he sought to amplify the importance of the ECB's new
communications strategy, calling it "unprecedented." Mr. Draghi's
predecessors at the ECB long resisted such pledges.
•
The ECB said the economy should gradually improve in the coming
months. Eurozone gross domestic product has contracted for 18
straight months through the first quarter of 2013.
•
But a vibrant, job-creating rebound remains elusive. This week
data showed that the rate of unemployment across the eurozone
rose to a record 12.1% in May. It is above 25% in Spain and Greece
and approaching 18% in Portugal, putting additional strain on
public debt.
•
Moreover, small businesses in southern Europe continue to pay
considerably higher rates on loans than their German
counterparts, ECB data showed Thursday.
•
Meanwhile, Inflation remains subdued. Eurostat Monday said
consumer prices in the eurozone rose 1.6% in the 12 months to
June, up from 1.4% in the 12 months to May and 1.2% in the 12
months to April. Although rising, the annual rate of inflation
remained well below the European Central Bank's target of just
below 2.0%.
10
Eurozone business activity slowdown eases
•
On Wednesday, a survey showed businesses in the eurozone cut
back on activity in June at the least severe rate in over a year.
•
Data company Markit said Wednesday its composite purchasing
managers' index, a gauge of business activity in the eurozone, edged
up to 48.7 in June from 47.7 in May. The figure means activity was
still falling, but at the slowest rate in 15 months. The 50 level
separates growth from contraction.
•
The improvement was less significant than economists had
expected, however, largely due to poor readings by services
companies in Germany and Italy.
•
Combined with readings for April and May, data points to a
continued contraction in eurozone gross domestic product in the
second quarter, said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.
•
That would stretch the region's recession to seven straight quarters,
the longest in the postwar history of its constituent nations.
•
Nevertheless, there is good reason to believe that the region is
stabilizing and on course to return to growth during the second half
of the year. But any growth is likely to be tepid, due to little signs of
expansion in Germany.
11
Eurozone retail sales rise more than expected
•
A surprisingly strong rise in retail sales across the
17 countries that share the euro during May adds
to recent indications that the currency area's
economic contraction may be coming to an end.
•
The pickup in retail sales suggests consumer
spending could yet support a fragile economic
recovery that the ECB expects to take hold later
this year.
•
Eurostat, the EU's official statistics agency, said
retail sales rose 1% in May from April, rebounding
from falls of 0.2% in each of the two prior months
and beating expectations. The growth was the
strongest since January this year.
•
Sales were down just 0.1% from the comparable
month a year earlier. That compares with a 1%
year-to-year fall in April and is the least severe
decline since March 2012.
12
Carney starts early forward guidance
•
The Bank od England kept its main interest rate unchanged at
0.5% on Thursday and the size of its bond-buying stimulus
program unchanged at £375 billion.
•
However, Mark Carney ended his first policy meeting as governor
with an admonishment to financial markets that rising interest
rates were unwarranted and could derail a fledgling recovery in
the U.K. economy.
•
Against usual practice, the MPC published a statement alongside
the decision, in which Mark Carney signaled that the BoE will
keep interest rates at a record low for longer than investors had
expected.
•
Borrowing costs have been creeping up. Early last week, at the
height of the Fed-inspired selloff, money market contracts were
pricing in a rise in the BOE's benchmark rate as early as mid-2014.
•
As recently as May, markets weren't expecting any rise in the
benchmark rate until well into 2016, according to BoE forecasts
published that month.
13
Carney starts early forward guidance
•
The BoE said that while there were signs that
a recovery is underway, it stressed that it will
be "weak by historical standards," and the
economy is likely to continue along below
potential for some time, despite some
promising data the past few weeks.
•
The BoE's move foreshadows a looming shift
in communications under Mark Carney;
guidance is a policy his predecessor, Mervyn
King, resisted.
•
Mr. Carney is expected to explain in greater
detail how the BoE will use guidance when he
gives his first news conference as governor on
Aug. 7, following the publication of new
forecasts for economic growth and inflation
by the MPC.
14
UK service sector growth fastest for two years
•
Thursday’s rate decision came after a slew of upbeat data
for the UK in recent weeks showed signs of an economic
recovery after a period of stuttering growth.
•
The UK's dominant services sector, which account for threequarters of the economy, expanded at its fastest rate since
March 2011 during June.
•
The purchasing managers' index soared to 56.9 in June, up
from 54.9, its highest level for 27 months. A figure above 50
means growth, according to Markit, which compiles the
survey.
•
Surging growth in the service sector accompanied a
resurgent manufacturing sector and modest growth in
construction in June resulted in an increasingly broad-based
economic upturn.
•
The buoyant picture for June means the economy is on
course to expand by at least 0.5% in the second quarter,
with more growth to come, according to Chris Williamson,
Markit's chief economist.
15
China credit crunch fears ease as bank rates normalize
•
Tension in China's money markets have eased with short term rates sliding as the central bank
steadied the market with a pledge to backstop ailing lenders and provide liquidity injections to
support the financial system.
•
The financial turmoil earlier this month came as the central bank tried to force banks to manage
their liquidity better. With the People's Bank of China no longer playing the role of lender of last
resort, the rates that banks charge to lend to each other for overnight funds shot up, briefly
topping 30%.
•
The cash crunch came at the end of the second quarter as banks rushed to raise funds to meet
capital requirements.
•
The People's Bank of China has taken an unusually indifferent approach in handling the liquidity
crisis so far, refraining from using its routine market operations to add cash into the system and
only admitting at the last minute that it had injected funds into some banks to help alleviate the
crisis.
•
However, rates have now normalized to 3.98% level after the PBC moved to alleviate fears last
week. It said: 'If banks have temporary shortages in their planned funding, the central bank will
give them liquidity support.
'If institutions have problems in managing their liquidity, the central bank will apply appropriate
measures under the circumstances to maintain the overall stability of money markets.‘
•
16
China PMI Data Hint at Slowing Economic Growth
•
China's manufacturing sector showed fresh signs of weakness in June,
against a background of strains in the country's financial markets and an
effort to rebalance the economy.
•
Two indices of manufacturing activity published Monday came in below
May levels, pointing to lackluster growth in the second quarter. But
policymakers have repeatedly emphasized that they see little room for
economic stimulus, amid concerns that past efforts to pump up the
economy may have left a legacy of bad debts and wasteful investment.
•
The official purchasing managers' index fell to 50.1 in June from 50.8 a
month earlier, holding just above the cutoff level of 50 that divides
expansion from contraction.
•
The HSBC manufacturing PMI, a competing gauge that gives more
weight to smaller firms and exporters, fell deeper into negative
territory, dropping to 48.2 in June from 49.2 in May.
•
China's new administration has signaled its intention to rebalance the
economy away from a reliance on exports and investments and toward
a greater emphasis on domestic consumption.
•
The country's growth now looks likely to be sluggish when first-half GDP
figures are released this month.
17
US stocks gain following the jobs report, but concerns
remain that the Fed will scale back stimulus
18
Egypt crisis sends oil prices sharply higher
19
Major Interest Rate Forecasts
Rate (%)
Market yield
Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
(July 5)
United States
US 10-year
2.74
2.25
2.40
2.58
2.70
2.84
2.76
Fed Fund Target Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.72
1.53
1.65
1.81
1.94
2.10
1.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.48
0.50
2.04
0.50
2.17
0.50
2.37
0.50
2.44
0.50
2.51
0.50
2.10
0.50
Germany
Germnay 10-year
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
United Kingdom
UK 10-year
BoE Bank Rate
Source: Bloomberg
20
The Week Ahead,,,
Economic Data Release Calendar
July 7, 2013 - July 12, 2013
Date
8-Jul Mon
9-Jul Tue
10-Jul Wed
11-Jul Thu
12-Jul Fri
Currency Event
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
CNY
CNY
GBP
GBP
GBP
USD
GBP
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
EUR
EUR
USD
USD
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
AUD
AUD
JPY
EUR
USD
JPY
JPY
EUR
USD
USD
EUR German Trade Balance (euros)
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM)
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM)
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY)
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)
GBP Industrial Production (YoY)
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds)
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate
CNY New Yuan Loans
CNY Trade Balance (USD)
CNY Exports (YoY)%
CNY Imports (YoY)%
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY)
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jun 18-19 FOMC Meeting
USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Economic Policy in Boston
JPY Machine Orders (YoY)
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision
JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
JPY Kuroda Holds Post-Meeting Press Conference
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
USD Initial Jobless Claims
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for July
JPY Industrial Production (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
USD Producer Price Index (YoY)
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
GMT
Forecast
Previous
06:00
06:00
06:00
10:00
01:30
01:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
11:30
14:00
17.8B
0.00%
0.10%
-0.50%
2.50%
-2.60%
-1.50%
-1.50%
-£2600
94.70
800.0B
$27.80B
3.90%
6.20%
1.80%
1.90%
18.1B
2.30%
1.90%
1.00%
2.10%
-2.90%
-0.60%
-0.50%
-£2579
94.40
0.60%
667.4B
$20.43B
1.00%
-0.30%
1.80%
1.90%
2.80%
-1.10%
0.0K
5.60%
¥270T
1.1K
5.50%
340K
343K
-1.40%
2.10%
85.00
-1.00%
-0.60%
1.70%
84.10
06:00
06:00
18:00
20:10
23:50
01:30
01:30
06:30
08:00
12:30
04:30
09:00
12:30
13:55
21
Central Bank Meetings Calendar
Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
Central Bank
Month
Current Rate
Expected Rate
Decision
US Federal Reserve (FOMC)
September 18
0.25%
0.25%
European Central Bank (ECB)
August 1
0.50%
0.50%
Bank of England (BoE)
August 1
0.50%
0.50%
July 10
0.10%
0.10%
September 19
0.00%
0.00%
July 17
1.00%
1.00%
August 6
2.75%
2.75%
July 24
2.50%
2.50%
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Bank of Canada (BOC)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
22
Regional
23
Egypt’s Treasury yields surprisingly fall after a week of turmoil
•
Egypt’s 6M and 12M Treasury yields surprisingly fell when an
auction was held last Thursday, while no auctions were held
for 3M and 9M Treasuries, after a week of political unrest
that ended with the removal of Preisdent Morsi by the
Egyptian military forces.
•
Moreover, Egypt’s stocks rallied indicating that Egyptian
investors view the ousting of President Morsi as a positive
improvement in the economy.
•
Egypt needs to find stability soon, as the Egyptian Pound
continued to depreciate reaching approximately 7.03 against
the dollar.
•
Additionally, if Egypt wants to secure the $4.8 billion IMF
loan, it will need to act fast and take unpopular decisions as
it’s foreign reserves are already low at $16 billion (just above
the 3 month of imports set by the IMF).
•
The unrest will hurt its tourism and foreign direct investment,
while the depreciation of the pound will increase its import
bill as it struggles to find stability.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
24
Fitch cuts Egypt’s credit ratings from B to B•
Fitch Ratings, the global rating agency, downgraded
Egypt’s issuer default ratings and country ceiling from
‘B’ to ‘B-’, following the unrest that took place after
the military deposed President Mohamed Morsi amid
mass demonstrations.
•
The global firm cited “heightened uncertainty” and
“inflamed political tensions” as reasons behind the
economic turbulence in the country, both likely to
jeopardize its economy and creditworthiness.
•
The global rating firm could further downgrade
Egypt’s credit rating, as outlook is already negative.
•
Both ratings are non-investment grade or “junk”
ratings, six notches below investment grade.
•
Fitch’s release also stated that the current political
scene may impede Egypt from implementing its fiscal
and structural reforms, necessary to secure the
proposed $4.8bn International Monetary Fund loan
package.
25
GCC Economic Highlights:
UAE PMI slows in June on weaker foreign market conditions - HSBC
•
Growth in non-oil business activity in the United Arab
Emirates slowed slightly in June as companies
contended with worsening economic conditions in
foreign markets, while the rate of wage inflation spiked,
HSBC said Tuesday.
•
The bank's purchasing managers' index came in at 54.1
in June, down from a reading of 55.3 in May. Any
reading above 50 indicates growth in the U.A.E.'s
private-sector non-oil economy.
Key points:
•
•
Activity, new orders, employment and stocks of
purchases all improved, but only workforce numbers
rose at an accelerated rate from the previous survey
period.
However, June's slowdown was driven by weaker
increases in output and new orders, HSBC said, while
wage inflation increased at the fastest rate in the
survey's 47-month history.
Outputs and new orders increase at
weaker rates
New exports business rises, albeit
only slightly
Average staff costs increase at fastest
pace in series history
26
GCC Economic Highlights:
Bahrain economic growth accelerates strongly in Q1 of 2013
•
Bahrain's economic growth accelerated strongly in the
first quarter of this year, helped by a revival of oil
output.
•
Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, expanded
by 2.5% in the first quarter of this year, compared to a
downwardly revised 0.2% in the fourth quarter last year.
•
On an annual basis, growth quickened to 4.2% in the first
three months this year, the highest rate in a year, from a
downwardly revised 2.5% in the previous quarter.
•
Output in the hydrocarbons sector, which accounts for a
quarter of Bahrain's $30 billion economy, grew 1.3% in
the first quarter from the previous quarter.
•
Hydrocarbon output jumped 8.0% on an annual basis in
the first quarter after falling by the same amount in the
fourth quarter of last year.
27
GCC Economic Highlights:
Kuwait May inflation climbs to 3pc y/y
•
The annual inflation in Kuwait climbed to 3% in May from
2.8% the previous month mainly due to a jump in food
prices, said a report.
•
The food prices, which account for over 18% of the basket,
rose 6.3% on an annual basis in May and 0.2% from the
previous month.
•
In other news, Kuwait's first quarterly balance-of-payments
data for 2013 indicate a continuing strong current-account
performance, with a surplus of KD4.7bn (US$16.7bn,
equivalent to 9.5% of estimated 2012 GDP) generated in the
first three months of this year.
•
Nonetheless, the surplus was lower than in the
corresponding period of the previous year when it reached
KD5.9bn (11.8% of GDP).
•
The deterioration largely reflected the impact of a 12.5%
year-on-year decline in oil receipts, which make up the bulk
of Kuwait's merchandise exports (95% in the first quarter of
2013).
28
GCC interbank rates
Source: Bloomberg
29
Comparative MENA Markets
For the period 16/06 – 21/06
Egypt stocks rally as army ousts president
30
Locally
31
GDP grew by 2.6% in Q1 of 2013
•
GDP grew by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2013, compared to
the first quarter of 2012, with expectations for 3.3% annual
growth in 2013 according to IMF forecasts.
•
Sectors that had the biggest impact on growth during the
first quarter of 2013 compared with the first quarter of 2012:
–
Construction industry and social service sector grew the
most by 7.80% and 7.7% respectively.
–
On the other hand, Agriculture sector and quarrying
industry contracted the most by 8.30% and 18.30%
respectively.
•
GDP growth remained below estimates due to a drop in
exports and a drop in the purchasing power of the consumer,
as the government continue to take harsh austerity measures
to minimize it’s fiscal deficit.
•
Additionally, capital spending by the government has not
kicked in, which is expected to help increase the GDP growth
rate later this year.
32
JD deposits at licensed banks at all time high
•
In the year 2012, JD deposits at licensed banks fell
by 1.40 billion JD while foreign currency deposits
increased by $2.82 billion as a result of increased
fear of the devaluation of the JD, causing a huge
dollarization wave.
•
However, since the beginning of this year, JD
deposits have increased by 1.62 billion JD to reach
an all time high of 19.33 billion JD at licensed banks.
•
Additionally, foreign currency deposits fell by
approximately $520 million for the same period to
reach $9.72 billion (6.89 billion JD).
•
In detail, the major increase in JD deposits came in
the month of April, as JD deposits increased by 601
million JD from March.
•
On the other hand, the major drop in foreign
currency deposits also came in the month of April,
as foreign currency deposits fell by $357 million
from March.
33
Explosion hits Egypt-to-Jordan gas pipeline
•
There were explosions early on Sunday at an Egyptian pipeline
supplying natural gas to Jordan.
•
Jordan depends on the gas to generate electricity, and if gas
supplies are low, Jordan resorts to importing oil at higher
prices to meet electricity needs.
•
Since the beginning of the year, the amount of gas imported
has been higher than previous years, as reflected in Jordan’s oil
bill that has fallen by 643 million JD in the first four months of
the year, compared to last year.
•
The disruption in gas flows will once again raise Jordan’s oil bill,
widen the fiscal deficit and create bigger loses for Jordan’s
national electricity company, NEPCO.
•
As part of the National Economic Reform Program, the IMF has
set target losses for NEPCO in the upcoming years, and the
disruption in gas will cause a setback in the performance of
NEPCO.
34
Amman Stock Exchange
For the period 30/06 – 04/07
ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at
(1966.8) points, compared to (1986.1) points for the last
week, posting a decrease of 0.97%. The total trading
volume during the week reached JD(41.1) million compared
to JD(82.9) million during the last week. Trading a total of
(39.2) million shares through (16,826) transactions
The shares of (166) companies were traded, the shares
prices of (43) companies rose, and the shares prices of (93)
declined.
Top 5 losers for the last week
Top 5 gainers for the last week
Stock
% chg
Stock
% chg
Arab Company For Investment Projects
17.02%
Ubour Logistic Services Plc
(19.78%)
National Steel Industry
14.29%
Middle East Diversified Investment
(13.95%)
Darwish Al-khalili And Sons Co. Plc
12.50%
Jordan French Insurance
(12.12%)
Alshamekha For Realestate And Financial Investments
11.58%
The Holy Land Insurance
(11.76%)
Arab Life & Accident Insurance
10.64%
Union Land Development Corporation
(11.54%)
35
Local Debt Monitor
Latest T-Bills

As of June 16, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ
JD(2,365) million.
3 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
29/2011
14/12/2011
14/03/2012
50
2.898%
28/2011
12/12/2011
12/03/2012
50
2.844%
6 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
02/2012
14/02/2012
14/08/2012
50
3.788%
01/2012
23/01/2012
23/07/2012
50
3.433%
27/2011
08/12/2011
08/06/2012
50
3.232%
9 months T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Yield (%)
05/2012
04/03/2012
04/12/2012
75
4.285%
04/2012
29/02/2012
29/11/2012
75
4.229%
03/2012
22/02/2012
22/11/2012
75
4.169%
1 year T-Bills
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - Million
Coupon (%)
04/2013
15/04/2013
15/04/2014
75
5.345%
03/2013
26/02/2013
26/02/2014
70
6.750%
02/2013
14/02/2013
14/02/2014
50
6.750%
01/2013
27/01/2013
27/01/2014
70
6.750%
36
Local Debt Monitor
Latest T-Bonds Issues
2 years T-Bonds
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T3613
24/06/2013
24/06/2015
50
6.129%
T2613
28/04/2013
28/04/2015
50
6.039%
T2213
10/04/2013
10/04/2015
75
6.604%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T3713
02/07/2013
02/07/2016
50
6.686%
T3513
18/06/2013
18/06/2016
50
6.546%
T3213
29/05/2013
29/05/2016
50
6.530%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T0312
15/01/2012
15/01/2016
37.5
7.246%
T4211
16/11/2011
16/11/2015
50
6.475%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
T3413
10/06/2013
10/06/2018
50
7.561%
T3313
02/06/2013
02/06/2018
50
7.484%
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Size - million
Coupon (%)
PB59 (Water Authority)
30/06/2013
30/06/2018
20
7.786%
PB58 (Water Authority)
13/06/2013
13/06/2018
12
7.703%
PB57 (Water Authority)
06/06/2013
06/06/2018
15
7.684%
PB005 (Housing & Urban Development)
29/07/2012
29/07/2015
20
7.966%
3 years T-Bonds
4 year T-Bonds
5 years T-Bonds
Public Utility Bonds
37
Prime Lending Rates
38
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39