Transcript EU mobility

Labour mobility in the EU
László Andor
Mercator Senior Fellow at Hertie School of Governance (Berlin)
Visiting Professor at ULB (Brussels)
Poznan, 19 May 2015
Free Movement of Persons in the EU
EU CITIZENS have the right to move and reside
freely, including non-actives, pensioners and
students (Art 21 TFEU)
• EMPLOYED
• plus family
members
Free
movement of
workers
• SELFEMPLOYED
• plus family
members
Freedom of
establishment
• POSTED
WORKERS
Freedom to
provide
services
Freedom of movement for workers
 Can look for a job in another member country
 Can work there without a work permit
 Can reside there for that purpose
 Can stay there after employment has finished
 Have a right to equal treatment with nationals in access to
employment, working conditions and all other social and
tax benefits
 Can have their family members join them with derived
rights
Source: Eurostat EU–LFS 2012
Share of EU mobile workers
in % of total labour force
Limited flows to most Member States
Recent (< 10 years) mobile EU workers (economically active) as a percentage
of the host country's labour force
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.
Increase in numbers of mobile EU workers
after 2004 and 2007 enlargements
EU workers residing in another member country in millions and as a
percentage of total labour force (2005-13)
Source: Eurostat and European Commission estimates.
NB: Croatian nationals included from 2009 on.
Large outflow in % of labour force
in origin countries
Recent (<10 years) mobile (economically active) EU citizens by nationality,
in % of labour force of origin country, 2013
Source: Eurostat EU-LFS and European Commission calculations
Mobile EU citizens tend to be young
Percentage of young people (15-34) among recent (<10 years) mobile EU
citizens and in population of countries of origin, by group of EU countries,
2013
Source: Eurostat EU-LFS and European Commission calculations
Mobile EU citizens more likely to be
economically active – and employed than nationals of host countries
Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Remittances partly offset negative
impact of loss of workers in Central
and Eastern Member States
Personal remittances received (% of GDP) (average for 2004-12)
Source: World Bank
Impact of the crisis on EU mobility
Mobility declined sharply between 2008 and 2010 (-41%), but recovered
(+22%) somewhat in 2011 and 2012.
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.
Impact of crisis on intra-EU mobility
Mobility flows declined sharply from 2007-08 to 2009-10 (-41%)
before recovering to some extent (+22%) in 2011-12.
Recent (<2 years) mobile EU citizens and non-EU economically active persons ('000)
Source: Eurostat, LFS and EC calculations.
Impact of crisis on distribution
of mobile workers by region of origin
Recent (< 2 years) mobile EU workers (econ. active) by region of origin ('000)
Source: Eurostat (LFS) and EC calculations.
Impact of crisis on origin countries
Recent (< 2 years) intra-EU movers (econ. active) by origin country,
in 2011-12, in comparison to pre-crisis period (2007-08)
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.
Impact of crisis on distribution of
mobile workers by host country
Recent (< 2 yrs) mobile EU citizens (econ. active) by host country (as % of total)
Source: Eurostat (LFS) and EC calculations.
• Sharp increase in the share of recent
mobile EU workers with tertiary
education – according to labour demand
Distribution of recent
(< 2 years) intra-EU
movers (econ. Active)
by highest education
level, in % of total
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.
Growing percentage of tertiary graduates
among mobile EU workers
Source : Eurostat, Education statistics
Mobile EU workers' high over-qualification rate
Around 35% of recent mobile EU tertiary-educated workers
employed in low and medium-skilled occupations – around 50%
in 2012 among those from Central and Eastern Europe.
Over-qualification rate among
recently established foreigners
by group of countries
(as a percentage of all highly
educated persons
in employment)
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European
Commission calculations
East to West mobility likely to decrease
GDP per capita in Central and Eastern EU countries (in PPS, EU15=100), 2000-2012
Source: European Commission (AMECO database)
Lessons learned from the impact
of crisis on mobility
 People go where the work is
 Mobility flows in the EU have reacted more strongly to
economic situation than in the US (contrary to the past)
 Some people go back when the economic situation in their
country improves
 People willing to move but more scope for intra-EU mobility
to increase
•
Impact of (post-2004) EU mobility:
 Positive economic impact (GDP of EU-15 boosted by 1%
in the long-run)
 Positive impact on economy - filling labour shortages
 Moderate impact for specific groups
 Very limited impact on wages / unemployment among natives
 Higher impact in major destination countries
 Possible negative impacts in short-run and on groups more likely
to be substitutes (past immigrants, low-skilled natives)
Impact of mobility on origin countries
 Could be negative on GDP due to large population outflows
 Impact on GDP per capita more limited
 Many young people leaving their origin countries
 The share of tertiary educated has increased in the last decade
 Remittances sent to origin countries
 No overall brain drain effect
 Mobility is not necessarily permanent phenomenon
 Many mobile workers come back with additional experience
 Possible strong impact for specific sector (eg: situation in the
health sector)
Impact of mobility on social security
in destination country
+ Fiscal impact likely to be positive, as mobile EU citizens
tend to be economically active
+ EU mobile citizens less likely to receive social benefits
-
•
Problems at local level may occur due to sudden influx of
poor EU mobile citizens in specific areas = impact on local
services such as healthcare and education
Total inflow of migrants to the UK
"Rest Europe" includes
EU accession countries
but also some non-EU
countries
"Other" includes
China, USA among
others countries.
Source:
UK ONS – Long-term
international
migration 1991-2012
Romania
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Bulgaria
Source: DWP 2013 Study
Number of adult EU foreigners
registering in the UK – 2012/2013
compared to 2011/2012 (%)
Employment rate in
the UK (age 15-64) (%)
Nationals
77
EU Citizens
(excluding nationals)
Source: EU Labour force survey - 2013
71
Unemployment rate in
the UK (age 15-64) (%)
Nationals
7.2
EU Citizens
(excluding nationals)
Source: EU Labour force survey - 2013
7.8
EU mobile citizens are low users
of welfare benefits
EU mobile citizens claim
2.1% of welfare
benefits despite
representing 4.6% of
the working population
4.8
2.1
Claimants of benefits (%)
Source: DWP 2013 Study
93
Overall positive fiscal impact in UK
of mobility from EU countries
• Positive net contribution of about 25 billion GBP
between 2001 and 2011
• Source: Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration
of the University College London
Other recent findings:
LSE brief (2013): Immigrants, on average, are less likely to be in social housing
than people born in the UK, even when the immigrant is from a developing
country.
EU policy for supporting labour
mobility
 The EU’s three-pronged approach to
promoting labour mobility:
• Remove remaining obstacles to labour mobility
• Actively support labour mobility and cross-country
matching of jobseekers and vacancies
• Tackle economic and social challenges linked to labour
mobility
1. Removing remaining obstacles to
the free movement of labour
 ‘Portability’ of supplementary pensions
•
Directive on improving the acquisition and preservation
of supplementary pension rights for mobile workers
 Recognition of professional qualifications
2. Actively supporting labour mobility
and cross-country matching of
jobseekers and vacancies
 Enforcement Directive on the exercise of the
right to free movement of workers
•
•
advice to mobile workers
easier redress when rights breached
 Upgrading EURES into a pan-European
recruitment and placement tool
3. Addressing related economic and
social challenges
 European Social Fund (> €80bn in 2014-20)
 Proposal for a European Platform to prevent
and deter undeclared work
 Enforcement Directive on the posting of
workers
• Thank you for your attention!