Transcript 11 September 2009

Conference of European Statisticians
Seminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on
Statistical Systems
Paris, June 2010
Session 3: Social and household statistics
Organiser: Paul Schreyer
OECD Statistics Directorate
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Introduction
Session 3 Invited Papers:
 Monitoring social change and the task of social
statistics: development in the Netherlands (Paul van
der Laan and Wim van Nunspeet, CBS Netherlands)

The Swedish Economy During two Crises (Petter
Hällberg and Krister Näsén, Statistics Sweden)

Lessons Derived form the Crisis for Social Statistics
(Inna Steinbuka, Eurostat)
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Introducing the papers (1)
Van der Laan & van Nunspeet

Background
– Three economic stimulus packages in the NLD since Nov
2008 (total of 2% of GDP)
– Social stimulus measures (part-time unemployment benefits,
wage subsidies etc)

Questions posed by authors
– Has traditional rapid information from social statistics been
adequate to monitor effects of crisis and stimulus packages?
– Is more short-term information needed in areas for which
low-frequency social information prevails, such as living
standards, well-being?
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Introducing the papers (2)
Van der Laan & van Nunspeet

Response:
– Most data needs could be fulfilled with existing
statistics
– But some shortcomings became apparent and led
to a quest for:
(1) greater detail in some areas (e.g. group of young
people, own-account workers)
(2) more information on dynamics of income, labour
markets etc.: can we follow individuals over time?
(3) revisiting the scope of social statistics: are we
measuring what really matters to people?
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Introducing the papers (3)
Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén
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Comparison of Sweden in 2 crises (early 1990s &
current crisis) on the basis of LFS
Interesting conclusion: from a labour market
perspective, the current crisis has been less severe
than the 1990 crisis
But also interesting demonstration of the usefulness
of dynamic data
Consider graph with simple static data on
unemployment
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Unemployed per 1000 persons (16-64),
Sweden
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Introducing the papers (4)

Interesting, but static data only tells part of the story

For instance, static data provides no information on
transition probabilities: how likely is it to become
unemployed if one is employed, outside the labour
force, a man/woman etc?

Authors show dynamic data
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Example for dynamic data: transition
rates to unemployment during 2 crises in
Sweden
3.5
3
2.5
2
Age 16-64
1.5
Age 55-64
1
0.5
0
1993Q1
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2009Q1
On average, lower probability of unemployment now
than in early 1990s
But not for people over 55 years of age
Disaggregated dynamic data tells different story 8
about vulnerability than static data
Introducing the papers (5)
Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat

Deals with crisis-related issues addressed by social
statisticians in the European Statistical System
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Key European statistics
– Quarterly EU LFS
– Labour market Principal European Indicators
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Introducing the papers (6)
Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat

Generally of good quality but:
– Make better use of available data (e.g., analyse impact of
crisis on specific groups of the population)
– Improve timeliness and flexibility: a lag of 2 to 3 years for
some annual data (income, poverty social protection) is too
long

Improving timeliness:
–
–
–
–
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Better coordination of fieldwork periods in member countries
Sharing tool and processes between countries
Exploit more fully potential of administrative data
Sub-samples for quick key indicators
Extending scope of existing data collections
– More info on demand side of labour market
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Common messages
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Overall, social statistics did their job during the crises
But more detail needed in some areas
And shorter lags in other areas
Dynamic and panel data are key for many analytical
purposes
Scope of social statistics may need revisiting and
expanding, for example to consider subjective data
Increase flexibility of data collection and processing
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Questions…Dutch paper

The paper mentions changes in the infrastructure of
household survey to increase its flexibility – please
provide some more information

The paper advocates a broader scope of social
statistics to include also subjective data (feelings,
opinions etc.). This is important because citizens will
find that their views are recognised and voiced. Is
there also a demand from analysts and policy makers
for such data?
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Question…Swedish paper

What are the statistical lessons you draw from
comparing the two crises – has the present crisis
given rise to different statistical challenges from the
crisis in the early 1990s?
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Question…Eurostat paper
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The paper mentions the idea that well-established
short-term surveys such as the LFS function as rapid
response tools during a crisis (integration of
additional questions e.g. on income). Has this idea
been discussed with Member countries – what has
been their reaction?
Have any other foreward-looking measures been
discussed in the ESS to ensure responsiveness
when the next crisis arises, very probably in a
different area?
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Thank you for your attention!
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