Transcript Asian Economic Papers

OECD
World
Forum
onon
Key
Indicators
OECD
World
Forum
Key
Indicators
Statistics,
Statistics,Knowledge
Knowledgeand
andPolicy
Policy
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
1
Using Knowledge to Boost
Competitiveness:
Comments on Three
Presentations
Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo
Executive Research Fellow, ESRI, Cabinet Office
Member, Statistical Council
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Burgi-Schmelz’s Paper
• Identify “Success Factors” in competitiveness
Impact of Science and Technology
• Measurement: # of patents and R&D share in GDP
Impact of Human Capital
• Measurement: Rate of Return on education (private/social)
Suggest positive correlation between success
factors and competitiveness
• Emphasize importance of the above measured
indicators and others (CO2, health care, higher
education) in guiding policies in “Knowledgebased economies
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
3
Rosted’s Presentation
• Identify Total Factor Productivity (TFP) or MultiFactor P (MFP) as one of the most important
determinants of competitiveness
• Identify factors influencing TFP/MFP and search
indicators representing them
Human resources
Knowledge accumulation and networking
ICT capital stocks
Entrepreneurship
• Identify the most important policy areas based
on the results
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Murray’s Presentation
• Identify “adult skills” a major determinant of
competitiveness.
• Propose indicators of these crucial “adult skills”
based on educational assessment and
household survey methods
• Show some success of these indicators in
explaining employability and wage differences
• Discuss remaining data problems as well as
policy-implementation ones based on these
indicators
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Three presentations
• A wealth of information is found about
aggregate indicators of probable
determinants of competitiveness
• A focus on cross-country performance
differences and their determinants
• Crucial role of indicators (statistics) to
guide public policy
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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What can be added to them?
Disaggregated/Micro-micro Analysis
• Complexity
Results based on simple correlation on an
aggregate of some indicators of
“competitiveness” or “achievement” and
that of indicators of “determinants” are
suggestive but not entirely convincing
• To entangle complexity, disaggregated
analysis are needed: industry-level and
period-wise
• Even further disaggregation may be helpful:
firm-level and consumer-level analyses
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Determinants of Competitiveness
• Supply-side – Push factors
Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
(level/growth)
Improved labor inputs
Innovation
• Demand-side – Pull factors
Consumer attitude (adjustability)
Changing needs (aging, etc.)
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Heterogeneity is a key factor
• Wide difference among industries and periods
81-84
85-89
90-94
95-98
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
81-84
Services
Trans. & Commu.
Finance
Trade
Utilities
Construc.
Instruments
Trans. Equipment
Elec. Machinery
Gen. Machinery
Fab. Metal
Pri. Metal
Stone & Clay
Chemicals
Paper & Pulp
Textile
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ratio of IT over Total Capital (%)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Food
TFP Growth (%)
Nishimura and Shirai, “Can Information and Communication
Technology Solve Japan’s Productivity-Slowdown Problem?”
Asian Economic Papers 2 (1) (2003), 85-139. TFP Growth
95-98
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Firm-Level Competitiveness Research
• Nishimura and Kurokawa “Total Factor Productivity in
Japanese Information Service Industries: Firm-Level
Analysis” 2004, available at ESRI website.
• Census-like Government Statistics (all
firms engaging information services)
• Activity-level calculation of Total Factor
Productivity of firms
• Heterogeneity is properly accounted for
(Panel Analysis with Firm-Specific Effect)
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Organizational structure matters
• To achieve high productivity, firm’s
organizational structure should be changed
• Seemingly productivity-enhancing
outsourcing has in fact negative effects on
productivity
Clear indication of a pitfall in “best practice”
methodology/policy
• Large adjustment costs
Employment adjustment costs on
productivity
Organizational adjustment costs on
productivity
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Consumer and
Knowledge-Based Economy
• Nishimura and Morita “Alienation in the Internet Society: Changes in Car
Buyer Attitudes in the Japanese Automobile Industry,” International
Journal of Automobile Management and Technology 2 (2) (2002) 190205
• Conduct Interview-based Sample Surveys about
Automobile Drivers in 1999 and 2001
• Respondents roughly represent the whole Japanese automobile
drivers.
• The ratio of Internet users to all car owners was doubled between
1999 and 2001, from 16% to 32%
• Examine the magnitude of Internet’s influence on car purchasing
behavior
• Examine changes between 1999 and 2001
• Investigate not only Internet users but also non-Internet users
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Ailenation in Internet Society
• Surprisingly, the major change has occurred among
non-Internet users, not in Internet users
• New, Internet-driven strategies of manufacturers
and dealers ignore non-Internet users
• non-Internet users were increasingly disappointed
and alienated
losing interests in cars in general and human
relations with salespersons
• Internet society is likely to leave consumers
segmented and diversified. Some are not so happy.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Conclusions
• Three papers: a good start in a right direction
• Must be cautious to derive policy conclusions
from their results … Competitiveness in a
knowledge-based economy is a very complex
animal to investigate.
• More emphasis on micro-level research to
enrich our understanding of competitiveness in
knowledge-based economies
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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