Transcript Net expenditurer 1

OECD
World
Forum
onon
Key
Indicators
OECD
World
Forum
Key
Indicators
Statistics,
Statistics,Knowledge
Knowledgeand
andPolicy
Policy
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Indicators and Social
Accounting for 21st Century
Social Policy
Gosta Esping-Andersen
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Table 1. Poverty in Child Families. Cross-sectional Headcounts and Dynamics.
Kaplan-Mayer Survival Functions, 1994-2001
Rate of
Poverty Persistency:
Poverty
Year One
Year Two
Three+ years
(2000)
Denmark 2.4
.410
.282
.026
France
7.3
.590
.418
.128
Germany 9.0
.490
.303
.091
Italy
16.6
.635
.411
.161
Spain
13.3
.597
.369
.120
U.K.
15.4
.494
.287
.110
U.S.
21.9
.814
.704
.576
__________________________________________________
Wilcoxson test for equality Pr>Chi2 = .0001 (Chi2=26.53)
Source: ECHP, waves 1994-2001, and for the U.S., the PSID, 1993-1997. Poverty rates
are from LIS.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Table 2. Total GDP Use for Social Protection
•
•
•
Swenden
Germany
USA
Sweden/USA
ratio
Gross
Expenditure
35.7
29.2
15.8
2.2
Net
expenditurer
1)
28.5
27.3
17.5
1.6
Net Private
Expenditure
2)
2.2
1.6
8.1
Net Total
Expenditure
30.6
28.9
25.6
1.2
Table 2. Total GDP Use for Social Protection
1) after tax claw-backs and other indirect taxes, plus tax subsidies
2)includes mandatory and voluntary plans, but excludes out-of-pocket payments
Source: W. Adema, Net social expenditure. Labour Market and Social Policy-Occasional Papers, no.52. OECD (August, 2001).
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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TABLE 3. DYNAMIC ACCOUNTING
OF THE COSTS AND RETURNS FROM DAY CARE PROVISION
Assumptions:
•
Mother, at age 30-35, has two kids
•
she does not interupt employment (except one year maternity).
•
Her wage is 67% of APW, and
•
she will continue working until age 60.
•
We apply 1.5%p.a. ‘Mincer estimate’ of cummulative loss for 5 year interuption
D.Kr.
Cost to government:
2 years in creche (x2)
and
3 years in pre-school (x2)
Total
Gains to mother:
(a) 5 years with full earnings
and
(b) life-time wage gain from no
interuption
Total
Gains to Exchequer:
additional revenue from (a)
and
additional revenue from (b)
Total
=168.000
=342.000
510.000
=800.000
=1.400.600
2.200.600
=280.000
=490.000
770.000
Net return to Exchequer
On original outlay (770.000 – 510.000)
260.000
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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