Transcript CP.4.GermanPolitics

A BIT ABOUT GERMANY
•Why should we study its government?
•82 Million people, or about one fourth the population
of the US; about the size of Montana
•Shares borders with 9 countries…
•Debt to GDP: about 80% vs. US about 100%
•Deficits/surplus last year: +218B Germ vs. -477B US
•Deficit as share GDP; US -7%; Germ +.1
•GDP: $3.3 trillion, #4 in the world (vs US 14 tril); 21%
of EU (vs. 14% UK, 16% FR, 12% Italy)
•GDP 1990 – 2010: 3.96% annual growth (vs US:
5.3%)
•Exports: #2 in the world. Germ trade balance last
year: +242B; US -744B
•Unemployment (meas. Diff): Germ 6.5%; US 5.6 (Feb,
2015)
Why study Germany?
•What can it tell us about late-developing states (1860s-70’s)?
•What can Germany tell us about why it’s important to get the
democratic choices right for your society? What can it tell us
about cultural bombs embedded in a democratic constitution
(Weimar Republic)
•What can it tell us about punishing countries for bad leaders
when you want to make them a democracy later on?
•How long does it take to build a democracy that works? What
does it take?
•Is Germany’s “two-party, plus” electoral system the best?
•What kind of political culture is necessary for democracy to
flourish?
•What can Germany tell us about globalization’s pressures on
subnational govts? What does it tell us about the upside and
consequences of joining disparate economies and environments
into one economic unit (from below and above)?
GERMANY 1815
WHAT ARE THE KEY CRITICAL
JUNCTURES IN GERMAN HISTORY?
•Why statehood and democracy so darn late? From
loose fiefdoms ( to Napoleon, to domination by
Prussia’s Bismark (1850s)
•The Second Reich (1871-1918): Economic expansion
and pseudo- democracy. Why doesn’t democratic
change stop here? Why was this a lousy time to
become semi-democratic?
•Treaty of Versailles (1919)
•The Weimar Republic (1919): Everyone votes, PR w/
no threshold, referenda, and PMs in polarized
societies… and the problem of a strong president
MORE CRITICAL JUNCTURES
•The Nazis’ Third Reich (1933-45).
Fascist and totalitarian
•Divided Germany (1949-90), with lots
and lots of resources and
instutitonalization
•Reunification (1989-90)
•Central leadership in the European
Union, including adoption of the Euro
HOW DOES THE GERMAN SET UP
POWER?
•Why do they have a written Constitution?
•Federalism (more on this on the next slide)
•An far-reaching Bill of Rights: Is it good to write
everything down? (Settlements can be helpful)
•Dual executive (Pres+Chancellor) & bicameral
natl. legislature (Bundestag+Bundesrat)
•A strong supreme constitutional court with
judicial review and an unusually broad
jurisdiction (but also selected with 2/3 super
majorities, 6 by each chamber), & 12 yr termlimits)
•A const. fixed electoral process (multi-party)
HOW DOES GERMAN FEDERALISM
WORK?
•Germany’s strong Lander have PR parliaments
•Significant tax revenues (40%) & discretion on how to use it
•Lander legislatures select state delegations to the
Bundesrat, which has strong autonomous powers…that
aren’t fully used except to protect state power
•Lander legislatures select half of the 16-member
Constitutional Court via role in Bundesrat
•Lander provide half of the electoral college that selects the
president to 7-year fixed terms.
•Can you have strong state governments in the context of
globalization and the EU?
WHAT IS UNIQUE ABOUT THE
BUNDESTAG?
•Germany has a semi-parliamentary system… How does
this work in places like Russia and France? Why does it
work here
•The Chancellor has a large executive staff, that is not
selected from legislature
•Formal policy guidelines issue for the cabinet
•Why doesn’t Germany have Chancellor-called early
elections like most parliamentary systems? Why only
“constructive” no-confidence votes?
•Is there any advantage to having at least somewhat
independent legislators? Committees, individual
lawmaking, & casework are stronger in Germany than
Britain but way weaker than in the US
HOW DOES THE TWO-PLUS PARTY
SYSTEM WORK?
•The Bundestag’s electoral system for 600+ legislators is (1) half
PR. with an all-national district, & (2) half SMD (single-member
district), using plurality elections
•Just a reminder: SMD-plurality elections are sometimes
called “first-past the post” whenthere is no run-off)
•How does Germany’s ballot work? Isn’t it confusing?
•The SMD system leads to two big parties: the CDU and the SPD
•The PR system helps other parties: Greens, Free Democrats, and
the Left ( which is mostly the old E. Germany Communist party)
•What to make of all these hung parliaments where any
combination of parties can form a government? Is Germany still a
model that others should look at? Is it helpful to have “grand
coaition” as has been the case since 2013 (CDU = dominant party,
SPD is junior party)
DOES GERMAN DEMOCRACY WORK?
A little context:
A full, representative democracy achieved in just a
couple of decades:
1950s: studied as non-democ; today = a “model”
•Industrialization in the big picture:
1951: GNP per cap = $500 (1/4 US);
Today: $30K (= to Britain & Japan)
•Unification costs: Over $3 trillion. E. Germ. still
receives 4% of GDP in transfers (7.5% tax
surcharge)
WHAT’S THE GERMAN APPROACH TO
GLOBALIZATION?
•Harder to get things changed than in Britain, but stability
and centralism are the norm versus America’s inaction
•Schroeder (Social Democratic) and Merkel (Christian
Democrats): How different?
•Is the govt. held hostage by workers & small parties?
•Corporatism under a strong state (the Bundesbank)
•Codetermination with wage restraints
•Worker benefits & a very generous social policy
•What’s their secret? Selective privatization; strategic
social investment; and above all a political culture that
emphasizes consensus, sacrifice, and stability
•Is Germany’s domestic politics going to harm their
international relations over the long run?