Transcript Grand Overview

Grand Overview
Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity
eventually – we are entering this era now but are in
complete denial about it
What are the consequences:
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Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models
Requires some component of morality based decision
making
Requires public policy based on avoiding the worse possible
outcome.
The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of “cheap”
fossil fuels as our energy foundation
New solutions do exist – implementation takes
leadership and the ability to think big
The Public needs to be come a lot more energy and
climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed
The World is Also Changing
Post WW II
New Players = Indonesia, Mexico,
Turkey
Victor Lebow Journal of Retailing 1955
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Our enormously productive economy demands
that we make consumption our way of life, that
we convert the buying and use of goods into
rituals, that we seek our spiritual
satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in
consumption. The measure of social status, of
social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be
found in our consumptive patterns. The very
meaning and significance of our lives today is
expressed in consumptive terms.
The Consumptive Mandate
Waveform: if you got more, consume
even more: Maintain BAU
sustainability
Accelerated Climate Change
CONSUMPTION 
What Are the BAU
Options?
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LNG Importation
development
“Clean Coal”
Fast Breeder
Reactors
NG Fracking (steel
problem)
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Fastest gateway to
energy economy
Leads to Growth of
GDP
Accelerates Global
CO2 Deposition
Reinforces BAU –
mine the planet
Breaking out of BAU
 Consume less
 Requires some
 Drive less
component of
morality based
decision making
 Requires leadership
 Requires world
cooperation
 Plan ahead
 Invest in Renewable
Energy infrastructure
 Have long term
governmental goals
Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?
But Solution Space Exists!
Solar PV
 Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric
 Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
 Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain
and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids)
 Biomass Co-Generation
 OTEC; Gulf Current
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Barriers to Renewables
High capital cost; long payback times
 Lack of any vision or out of the box
thinking on truly large scale projects
 NIMBY reactions to anything and
everything makes implementation difficult
 Technology uncertainty
 Grid Limitations
 Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement
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Certainty
GOD
HUMANS
Entitlement
HUMANS
Aarogance
NATURE
Wisdom
Super
Connectivity
Of Atoms
Nova
TREES
ROCKS
Enlightenment
Humility
TREES
ROCKS
Disconnected States
Everything Is Connected to
Everything
Evaluation Rubric For All forms of
Renewables
1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
4. MW output versus production time scale
to bring on line (months/MW)
5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)
6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per
KWH)
To Evaluate Competing Electricity
Generating Technologies
 Develop an internally consistent indexing
system for the 6 attributes listed previously
(the dow jones is an index)
 Use real world data and real world physics to
best determine the values
 Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)
 Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the
following exercise
Indexing – Solar Troughs
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1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day)
=1
2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1
3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW
4. Time ~10 MW per month
5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost
6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH
Index
Solar Wind
Waves Biomass
Land
1
2.5
1
.2
Material 1
3
.2
1
Jobs
1
1
1
5
Time
1
3
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.5
Capital
1
2.5
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Level
1
3
.75
1
Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)
Highest Index is Best
Relative Ranking
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Solar = 7
Waves =4.75
Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)
Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and
low Levelized costs)
In general, wind is more scalable than
Solar and wind always beats Solar PV
Thinking Big -Solar
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Sonoran Desert Project:
300,000 square km @
2% coverage yields
100,000 MW
Thinking Big - Wind
Lake Michigan Wind
project down North South
Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km
box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW
turbines: 180,000 MW
Thinking Real Big - Wind
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100
MW vertical Wind Turbines:
Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125
square km. This produces 1TW of
electricity and effectively replaces
all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
Be Optimistic and ProActive
• Change can occur when consumers are
properly informed.
• Technological solutions exist to make
significant impact if deployed now
• Consume Less
• Technology is rapidly improving
• We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid
Correct this 
• Our view of the world as a resource to use
up must change!
• Profit vs Equity: Surplus  Growth or
Equity? Growth or Prosperity?
• This is your generations challenge:
What Inequity Looks Like
Living Planet Report 2012
Wealthy Nations
Increasing real world gap
Resource Base
Developing world catching up
The Water Scarcity Problem
The Future of Water
Recommendations
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Preserve Natural Capital: Protected Biodiversity
Produce more efficiently
Consume more wisely
Redirect financial flows to support sustainability
Equitable resource governance:
– Equitable resource governance also requires a
changed definition of well-being and success that
includes personal, societal and environmental health
• What process is needed for implementation?
You have three choices: Stay
Informed amidst misinformation,
Give up, or Do Something
What will be your Choice?