Transcript Grand Overview

Grand Overview
Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity
eventually – NO SHIT Sherlock
What are the consequences:
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Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models
Requires some component of morality based decision
making
Requires public policy based on avoidance costs (bottom of
column B – (youtube argument)
The time is near (10-25 years) for the end of “cheap”
fossil fuels as our energy foundation
New solutions do exist – implementation takes
leadership and the ability to think big
The Public needs to be come a lot more energy and
climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed
What has changed in the last Year
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The Obama Stimulus Unit is now established –
insufficient Federal funding for alternative
energy infrastructure.
Optimistic discovery potential of new North
American NG reserves keeps on BAU pathway
Crude oil prices have now become high once
again similar to the situation in 2008
Long term unemployment is now a national
crises
The World is Also Changing
Post WW II
New Players = Indonesia, Mexico,
Turkey
Victor Lebow Journal of Retailing 1955
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Our enormously productive economy demands
that we make consumption our way of life, that
we convert the buying and use of goods into
rituals, that we seek our spiritual
satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in
consumption. The measure of social status, of
social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be
found in our consumptive patterns. The very
meaning and significance of our lives today is
expressed in consumptive terms.
The consumptive Mandate
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As expressed by Lebow effectively puts
the US and then the world on the BAU
trajectory to use more than 1 Earth to
meet its consumption demand.
An alternative view point:
Every man must decide whether he will
walk in the light of creative altruism or in
the darkness of destructive selfishness
The New Descartes
The traditional Economic Argument
Does Not Scale due to product
diversification and greed
The Business As Usual Future –
what’s the point – its time to grow
up now
JUST
SAY
NO TO
THIS
PATH
Need to Avoid THIS:
Continued Climate Change
What Are the BAU
Options?
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LNG Importation
development
“Clean Coal”
Fast Breeder
Reactors
NG Fracking (steel
problem)
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Fastest gateway to
energy economy
Leads to Growth of
GDP
Accelerates Global
CO2 Deposition
Reinforces BAU –
mine the planet
Breaking out of BAU
 Consume less
 Requires some
 Drive less
component of
morality based
decision making
 Requires leadership
 Requires world
cooperation
 Plan ahead
 Invest in Renewable
Energy infrastructure
 Have long term
governmental goals
Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?
But Many Options Now Exist
Solar PV
 Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric
 Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
 Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain
and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids)
 Biomass Co-Generation
 OTEC; Gulf Current
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Barriers to Renewables
High capital cost; long payback times
 Lack of any vision or out of the box
thinking on truly large scale projects
 NIMBY reactions to anything and
everything makes implementation difficult
 Technology uncertainty
 Electrical Grid limitations
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Solar Pros and Cons
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Pros
Resource is
available
CSP technology
rapidly improving
Many small scale
applications
Thermal Electric is
dispatchable
Can co-locate with
Fossil Plan
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Cons
Large $/Watt
installation costs
Large Scale (1000
MW or greater)
facilities difficult
Requires Significant
Energy storage for
24x7
Wind Pros and Cons
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Pros
Low levelized costs
Small footprint on
the Land
Applicable on both
large and small
scale
Some wind
resources is usually
always present
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Cons
Visual Pollution
Resource is erratic
in nature and
therefore requires
energy storage
Transmission line
expense for remote
wind farms is large
Transportation Changes
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Pros
Single biggest lever
arm for energy
conservation
Single biggest lever
to mitigate climate
change
Single biggest
influence on
development
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Cons
Marx says we can’t
Our whole
economic structure
is based on private
vehicles
Vast amounts of
jobs are associated
with our current
structure
OTEC; Gulf Current
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Pros
Has enough
capacity to sustain
world for centuries
In situ Hydrogen
Production for
transport economy
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Cons
Gigantic up front
costs
Engineering
challenge
Requires world
cooperation
Evaluation Rubric For All forms of
Renewables
1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
4. MW output versus production time scale
to bring on line (months/MW)
5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)
6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per
KWH)
To Evaluate Competing Electricity
Generating Technologies
 Develop an internally consistent indexing
system for the 6 attributes listed previously
(the dow jones is an index)
 Use real world data and real world physics to
best determine the values
 Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)
 Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the
following exercise
Indexing – Solar Troughs
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1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day)
=1
2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1
3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW
4. Time ~10 MW per month
5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost
6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH
Index
Solar Wind
Waves Biomass
Land
1
2.5
1
.2
Material 1
3
.2
1
Jobs
1
1
1
5
Time
1
3
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.5
Capital
1
2.5
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Level
1
3
.75
1
Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)
Highest Index is Best
Relative Ranking
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Solar = 7
Waves =4.75
Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)
Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and
low Levelized costs)
In general, wind is more scalable than
Solar and wind always beats Solar PV
Thinking Big -Solar
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Sonoran Desert Project:
300,000 square km @
2% coverage yields
100,000 MW
Thinking Big - Wind
Lake Michigan Wind
project down North South
Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km
box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW
turbines: 180,000 MW
Thinking Real Big - Wind
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100
MW vertical Wind Turbines:
Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125
square km. This produces 1TW of
electricity and effectively replaces
all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
Be Optimistic and ProActive
• Change can occur when consumers are
properly informed.
• Technological solutions exist to make
significant impact if deployed now
• Consume Less
• Technology is rapidly improving
• We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid
Correct this 
• Our view of the world as a resource to use
up must change!
• Profit vs Equity: Surplus  Growth or
Equity?
• This is your generations challenge:
You have three choices: Stay
Informed, Give up, or Do
Something
What will be your Choice?