Transcript Grand Overview

Grand Overview
Over consumption will lead to
resource scarcity eventually
That time is near for fossil fuels as our
energy foundation
Consumption is the sole end and
purpose of all production
Adam Smith – right up there
with Aristotle!
1947 Prophecy
• A society in which consumption has to be
artificially stimulated in order to keep
production going is a society founded on trash
and waste.
Consumption with a Conscience
The traditional Economic Argument
Does Not Scale!
Global Consequences of Global
Consumption
And We Have Known this Crunch
was coming for quite some time
The Business As Usual Future
Continued Consumption
Continued Climate Change
What Are the BAU Options?
• LNG development
• “Clean Coal”
• Fast Breeder
Reactors
• Unconventional Oil
sources (shale oil and
tar sands)
• Fastest gateway to
energy economy
• Leads to Growth of
GDP
• Accelerates Global
CO2 Deposition
• Reinforces BAU –
mine the planet
Breaking out of BAU
 Consume less
 Requires some
 Drive less
component of
morality based
decision making
 Requires leadership
 Requires world
cooperation
 Plan ahead
 Invest in Renewable
Energy infrastructure
 Have long term
governmental goals
But Many Options Now Exist
Solar PV
 Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric
 Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
 Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain
and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids)
 Biomass Co-Generation
 OTEC; Gulf Current
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Barriers to Renewables
High capital cost; long payback times
 Lack of any vision or out of the box
thinking
 NIMBY reactions to anything and
everything
 Technology uncertainty
 Electrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and Cons
• Pros
• Resource is available
• CSP technology
rapidly improving
• Many small scale
applications
• Thermal Electric is
dispatchable
• Can co-locate with
Fossil Plan
• Cons
• Large $/Watt
installation costs
• Large Scale (1000
MW or greater)
facilities difficult
• Requires Significant
Energy storage for
24x7
Wind Pros and Cons
• Pros
• Low levelized costs
• Small footprint on the
Land
• Applicable on both
large and small scale
• Some wind resources
is usually always
present
• Cons
• Visual Pollution
• Resource is erratic in
nature and therefore
requires energy
storage
• Transmission line
expense for remote
wind farms is large
Transportation Changes
• Pros
• Single biggest lever
arm for energy
conservation
• Single biggest lever
arm for global climate
change
• Single biggest
influence on
development
• Cons
• Marx says we can’t
• Our whole economic
structure is based on
private vehicles
• Vast amounts of jobs
are associated with
our current structure
Bio Mass
• Pros
• Simple technology
• Good Co-generation
device
• Makes reasonable
use of agricultural
waste
• Creates Jobs
• Cons
• Transport of Wet
Crops is energy
intensive
• Creates pollutants
• Not clear if there is a
net energy gain
• Not practical on large
scale
OTEC; Gulf Current
• Pros
• Has enough capacity
to sustain world for
centuries
• In situ Hydrogen
Production for
transport economy
• Cons
• Gigantic up front
costs
• Engineering
challenge
• Requires world
cooperation
Be Optimistic
Change can occur – this class is part of
this process
 Individual attitudes matter and thus
individuals can influence others
 Many clever and dedicated people are now
addressing this problem
 Technology is rapidly improving
 Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember
Fred!
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